Thread by @DFBeanCounter

It has been brought to my attention that there are a great many breakout age deniers #onhere or perhaps just some are uninformed.

Let's see what history can teach us about Devonta's chances, shall we?

Let's dive in.

As always, the first thing to look at is the overall hit rate.

I have 361 players in my database with a breakout age that were drafted in rounds 1-7 from 2003-2017.

The hit rate is:

Top 12 - 54/361 = 15%
Top 24 - 81/361 = 22%

So lets see if Breakout age can explain that

First we'll look at breakout age by age for the full sample from rounds 1-7 and then we'll start controlling for draft capital.

Up first - No breakout age.

Top 12 - 2/43 = 5%
Top 24 - 2/43 = 5%

I would like to take this opportunity to point out that this includes Tyreek Hill and Julian Edelman.

Guess who didnt play WR in college?

Anyway... moving on.

Breakout age of 23:

Top 12 - 0/5 = 0%
Top 24 - 1/5 = 20%

Breakout age of 22:

Top 12 - 0/24 = 0%
Top 24 - 2/24 = 8%

Breakout age of 21:

Top 12 - 6/68 = 9%
Top 24 - 7/68 = 10%

Breakout age of 20:

Top 12 - 10/84 = 12%
Top 24 - 15/84 = 18%

Breakout age of 19:

Top 12 - 21/86 = 24%
Top 24 - 28/86 = 33%

Breakout age of 18:

Top 12 - 13/49 = 27%
Top 24 - 23/49 = 47%

So as a whole...

Age 18 and 19 substantially outproduce the population of drafted players.

Age 20 is slightly below average.

And Age 21 and over is basically a write-off.

but... maybe this is just a draft capital thing and the early breakout age guys just hit at the same rate as everyone else once you control for draft capital.

That has to be why there were people suggesting Henry Ruggs was the WR1 last year despite his breakout age of...

So lets carry on by draft capital. in the interest of time, lets condense day 3 to a singular category. Nobody REALLY cares about day 3 anyway, do they?

Please remember that those two "nones" werent actually WR's in college.

Here are the top 24 hit rates for day 3 picks based on breakout age.

In round 3 things look to be pretty clear that you need to be an age 21 or earlier to have a realistic shot at a top 12 season.

Top 24 looks a little more promising the further you go down the list but we are talking about a sample of 1 for an age 23 breakout kind of thing. lol

Here you have top 12 hits for round 2.

And here are the top 24 hits in round 2.

Here are the WR1's that come from round 1. Being an age 18 or 19 predicts a lot more success from a high ceiling perspective than being age 20 or less.

And lastly here are the WR2 hit rates by breakout age.

So this is one variation of breakout age. A couple years ago I stumbled across something that I thought was pretty interesting that I am sure a great many others already knew.

Sometimes players dont get to college until later. Using things like freshman, sophomore, etc breakouts is also a very effective way to do it.

When we are looking at these 20+ year olds that "hit" a huge portion of them are in fact guys breaking out as old freshman.

Thats guys like; Calvin Ridley, Aj Green, Kenny Golladay, Cooper Kupp, etc.

Basically whenever a player hits the field, if they breakout right away, that's a good sign, whether its at 18, 19 or as an older freshman, etc.

So where does Devonta fall in? with a perfectly unexceptional 20.8 breakout age.

This isnt a huge red flag, but its also something that you cant hang your hat on...

Though I guess the great Henry Ruggs and his breakout age of NOTHING was holding him back early on.

Luckily we've seen Ruggs dominate once he got away from all these studs and is now alpha-ing over guys like Agholor and Renfrow... That should give us hope, right?