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12 Dec, 6 tweets, 4 min read
Link thread of the powerful & thought-provoking short video essays produced by @katewand on lockdown/COVID culture. She's now produced 4 of these incredible videos to date, & frankly I’m a bit shocked her following hasn’t grown faster (although she’s now at 2.3K subs on YT).👇
1. “Lockdown: The Right Side of History”

(essay by @stacey_rudin)

“In the COVID debate, there is a mainstream, 'popular' narrative, and a competing, 'unpopular' narrative — a 'fringe.' The former exploits the common, mediocre desire to be 'popular.'"
2. “Lockdown: The Dark Side of History”

(essay by @katewand)

“The year 2020 has been exemplary for those that believe obedience is a high virtue.”
3. “Lockdown: The New Totalitarianism”

(essay by @jeffreyatucker)

“…ideologies trend totalitarian. They depend fundamentally on overriding people’s preferences and choices and replacing them with scripted and planned belief systems and behaviors.”
4. “Lockdown: The New Tribalism”

(essay by @katewand)

“If people like you would just do what you’re told, we wouldn’t be in this mess anymore. Why can’t you just stay home? You’re irresponsible....you’re the reason we’re gonna stay locked down.”
Keep up the incredible work, @katewand, @stacey_rudin, @jeffreyatucker. The world needs you now.

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More from @rubiconcapital_

Kelly Brown Profile picture
15 Dec
1/
Vaccine debate now brewing on (i) who gets it first, and (ii) vaccine rates required for herd-immunity & getting back to normal.

Public Health says no normal ‘til vax rates are 60-70% (*assumed* herd threshold).

The Toronto data says perhaps just 10.9%...

Let’s explore… Image
2/
I’ll get to the data in a moment, but first, I present two opposing viewpoints, then you can decide what the data says makes the most sense…
3a/

1st view, Dr. Yaffe today in Ontario:

“its gonna take months before…significant % of the pop vaxx’d--usually for infectious diseases 60-70% of the pop is needed for herd immunity; we’re not gonna get there until probably the summer”… 22m:30s:
Read 16 tweets
Kelly Brown Profile picture
10 Dec
1/ Ontario COVID19 Testing and You (i.e. The Taxpayer)

Conservatively estimated total cost-to-date to Ontarians for PCR testing (incl. asymptomatics)?

Over $350,000,000

At 61,809 tests today, @ ~$52.50/test, that cost you ~$3.25m, or annualized…

~$1.2 billion (with a “B”)…
2/ The province is putting on a masterclass in resource misallocation…

For perspective, the Ontario Gov’t spends ~$4.3b annually on Long-Term Care.

That’s ~$150/day/resident, ~78,000 residents.

We are doing ~62,000 tests/day at @ ~$52.50 per test (again, ~$1.2b annualized).
3/ We should probably ask the question…

Given (i) the age stratified differences in COVID19 mortality, and (ii) that almost 2/3rds of all COVID19 mortality were of LTC residents, does it make sense to spend 27% of the annual LTC budget on mass PCR testing?
Read 9 tweets
Kelly Brown Profile picture
2 Dec
1/ Windsor, Ontario

Some chatter in Q&A’s in last few daily briefs with Premier/health officials re: rising cases in Windsor & potential for moving region to lockdown (just moved to “Red” zone on Mon, Nov 30).

Concern is hospital “overrun”… local hospital trends shown here…
2/
Case picture: yes, cases are rising, but overwhelming majority are traced to close contact or outbreak. Averaging only ~8 reported community cases of unknown origin per day. Image
3/
Overall new emergency admissions for three main Windsor-Essex hospitals appear to be:

*FLAT* for the entire month of November.

(Entire Erie-St.Clair area including Chatham/Sarnia also flat). Image
Read 8 tweets
Kelly Brown Profile picture
22 Nov
1/ Toronto is entering full lockdown.

In this thread, I’ll show the absurdity of a citywide shutdown, simply using by-neighbourhood case/positivity data, w/ census data integration.

Unmeasurable, unnecessary collateral harm is coming; please read/share.

(get a cup of coffee)
2/ Note: if you are not in Toronto/Canada, you will still find this #SARSCoV2 prevalence analysis and its conclusions compelling, as these same dynamics likely exist in many of the world’s major cities.
3/ Quick note: this analysis follows and adds substantially to a previous related thread, found here (tweets 4a/b sites the data sources/limitations, which are the same as used in this current thread). All %pos/cases data is cumulative since Aug 30.
Read 39 tweets
Kelly Brown Profile picture
20 Nov
1/ Brief thread… (I promise)

…focusing in on the correlations between (i) Toronto neighbourhood workforce/demographic concentrations & (ii) #SARSCov2 prevalence (cases/100k) identified in yesterday's thread.

Only a few sips of coffee/tea needed

(but this is no less striking) Image
2/ These data and observations *MUST* inform public policy on #SARSCov2/#COVI19, in my view.
3/ In my thread from yesterday, we examined % test positivity and cases/100k by neighbourhood in Toronto (for its 140 hoods) and then compared them to neighb'hood socioeconomic/demographic concentrations from census data to find (or not find) correlations.
Read 15 tweets
Kelly Brown Profile picture
19 Nov
1/ Grab a cup of coffee (or tea)

A comprehensive, neighborhood-by-neighborhood review of #SARSCov2 prevalence/trends in the City of Toronto.

% positivity & cases, with weekly trends since Aug, AND:

*cross referenced with neighborhood census data*

The findings are incredible.
2/ Note: even if you are not in Toronto/Canada, I think you will find this data/analysis compelling, and universally applicable re #SARSCov2/#COVID19 learning and public policy implications.

Toronto’s diversity (>51% visible minority) makes it an interesting case study.
3a/ In this thread, I show/illustrate:

1. for Toronto’s 140 neighbourhoods (and groups of hoods, e.g. DT Core, Northwest), which have increasing/decreasing % pos & cases per 100k.

(Some peaked long before the Oct 10th restrictions. Others still increasing despite restrictions.)
Read 36 tweets

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