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3 Jan, 4 tweets, 1 min read
China ramped up its COVID19 restriction today

Private gathering limited to 10 people and fewer.
Intracity travel now discouraged

Quarantine for international arrivals has been increased to 14 days (in dedicated hotels) + 14 days (at home)
The restrictions are likely to last until early March.

They have started mass inoculation, but interestingly they prioritize high-risk working population for now. No news yet on when 65+yo would start to receive their vaccine.
Vaccine hesitance is pretty high at the moment in China, because of a couple of high-profile counterfeit vaccine scandals in the past two years (nothing to do with the covid vaccine makers though)
My bad.. typo galore again

*INTER-city travel discouraged

Outdoor Gathering with masks seem to be okay for now.

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More from @Barton_options

Barton Profile picture
2 Jan
1/7 Probably an unpopular take:

The current fight between Jack Ma and Chinese regulators is somewhat similar to a Dick-Fuld-vs-Tim-Geithner fight in 2008.

no endearing character on either side.
2/7 Ant Financial (Alipay) fueled a $2Tn CNY sub-prime credit bubble in China in the past 3 years.

much of the $2Tn was used for weddings, cars, cell phones, video games, very few of which is productive assets.
3/7 Exhibit A of Chinese consumer credit boom

live-streaming influencers who are raking in millions a day.

The top influencer of 2020, 薇娅, had a one-day sales of 1.1Bn RMB on Nov 11. Yes, that's a billion, not a typo.
Read 7 tweets
Barton Profile picture
1 Jan
Dec 2020 saw some major shifts in the plate tectonics of global trade: RCEP and China-EU CIA

RCEP = first ever free-trade agreement among China, Japan and South Korea.

China-EU CIA = boosting foreign direct investment between the two from 2% of their total trade by several fold
Context: China has grown to the biggest trading partner of EU in 2020, at a size 5x of that of Japan and 9x of that of India.

While the US (Trump) imposed more tariff on EU yesterday, and Biden indicated no FTA discussion for 2 years.
Here is a good take on China-EU CIA

china-briefing.com/news/eu-china-…
Read 6 tweets
Barton Profile picture
17 Dec 20
1/ Trump, vaccine export ban, $DXY and stonks

COVID-dynamics for the next 4 months

IMO, there is a 70% chance that Trump will issue an America-first executive order on $PFE and $MRNA vaccines soon after FDA EUA on $MRNA vaccine.
2/ should that happen, PFE and MRNA would not be able to export COVID vaccine to other countries. until the need in the US is met.

This means most countries in the world, except for UK, Canada, Germany and China, would be denied access to COVID vaccines until March 2021.
3/ UK and Canada gambled by approving PFE vaccine faster than US FDA, to rush ahead of Trump export ban. This probably is the right decision, given the political dynamics.

Germany and China have their own productive capacity, but are unlikely to supply RoW by March 2021.
Read 5 tweets
Barton Profile picture
1 Dec 20
A teaser on my post-COVID fatigue syndrome article #LongCovid

esp. on the cognitive difficulty (brain fog)

IMO, very little to do with your brain, a lot to do with your liver.
1. critical supply of 5-htp from liver to brain gets cut off, as tryptophan is depleted by IDO and TDO by continued hyperinflammation.

The brain gets very short on serotonin as a result.
2. a secondary possibility for some is the disruption of Ach anti-inflammation pathway.
Read 5 tweets
Barton Profile picture
12 Nov 20
1/ Seeing some serious concerns on Ant Financials' business model being raised in China this week.

Reportedly, post-IPO, Ant planned to operate like a commercial bank (as in underwriting consumer loans) with a CET1 capital <1% of its balance sheet.
2/ Ant's size will approach GSIB-level, most GSIBs have CET1 capital requirement >11%.
federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pre…

Also, reportedly Ant wanted to issue consumer-debt backed ABS in China, which made regulators even more nervous.
3/ It seems that the regulators believed that Ant has the ambition to be a commercial bank, an investment bank, and maybe a shadow central bank in CNY.

and thus we had the drama we saw last week.
Read 4 tweets
Barton Profile picture
10 Nov 20
If rolled out quickly and being accepted widely, Pfizer and Mordena vaccines could save the lives of many 65+ yos in the US and Europe.

No idea on the availability in other countries

Note that this vaccine only prevents symptomatic/severe CoVid. It does not block spreading.
The most optimistic timeline: FDA EUA at EOM Nov to the earliest.
Rolling out to 65+ yo in general public in mid-Dec to the earliest.
2nd shot administered in early Jan to the earliest.
Recipient developing protective level of antibodies in mid Jan to the earliest.
Thus, most 65+ yos will still need to social distance for Thanksgiving and Christmas.

And i still expect covid cases to peak in late Dec and early Jan, at a scale many times bigger than we have today.
Read 4 tweets

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