Narayan Rane the ex CM of Maharashtra has helped to get jobs for a lot of youth originally from Konkan but now in Mumbai, in enterprises like BEST etc. Many of these youth used to go to Konkan to campaign for him during elections. #BMC2022
Mumbai has a huge population from Konkan historically as it is part of the coastline. Over the last century, the city grew n attracted more migrants. I myself am a 5th generation migrant from Konkan.
Hence Narayan Rane and family can help reach out to a lot of voters
Rane was the first politician in Konkan who took road infra to the remotest of hilly villages. Over the last decade the Rane family had lost popularity in Konkan but now they are gaining back the turf.
Rane can influence atleast a 1000 votes in more than a 100 wards
BJP can use ex CM Narayan Rane and his sons Nilesh and Nitesh Rane for campaigning in the BMC polls. They are residents of Mumbai, so they are well versed with electoral dynamics of Mumbai.
Poor n lower middle class Konkani/malwani people are backbone of Sena. #BMC2022
Though BJP cannot break it totally in one election cycle, but a major dent can be made on this crucial votebank.
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Look at how fresh @PawarSpeaks saheb is looking nowadays. The lure of power makes people young. Pawar kaka is trying one last attempt at being PM.
First objective is to get Gandhis give up claim to throne for 2024 and support a third front consensus candidate
Will be hard but dont rule out Pawar trying to get secular establishment to put pressure on Gandhis to relent. Today Praful Patel and Sanjay Raut are talking about it. Tomorrow someone like a Ramchandra Guha may talk about it.
Barkha Dutt and Shekar Gupta like fixers may start writing pieces about it. Actually it is the only way 2024 will not be an one sided election if Modi keeps performing well. Combined opposition may be only hope to keep below 272 though it is not likely.
BJP has potential to win one more seat in Dahisar (Ward 1) where Ram Yadav of BJP had revolted and his wife had fought as an independent (reserved for women) and she came number 2. BJP official candidate stood 4th. Now Ram Yadav is back in BJP.
Bhau rightly points out that the appointment of trade union leader Bhai Jagtap as Mumbai Congress chief is a good move as he is an ambitious leader, unlike the earlier chiefs.
Cong which used to get anti Sena vote has lost it to the BJP in 2017 in Mumbai, as BJP is oppn to Sena
Bhai Jagtap is talking of Cong fighting on its own in BMC. There could be three reasons why he is talking like that, 1. Congress has lost strength in Mumbai. From 70 odd wards won in 2007 to 50 odd in 2012 and finally 30 odd in 2017, it has been a downward graph.
MVA govt n Uddhav opposed Modi's pet project bullet train despite knowing that Mumbai - Ahmedabad is just the first stage of Mumbai - Ahmedabad - Delhi route.
Then u unwisely move the metro yard from best location Aarey to unwieldy Kanjur marg knowing litigation
Centre has always been claiming the land through salt department. It is not a new stand after 2019. But still CM did this only coz his son wanted it this way.
Now when courts have stopped the work, and no other solution seems possible Uddhav is talking of reconciliation on this.
They hope to strike a bargain on the bullet train project and Kanjur marg metro yard. Knowing Modi this does not seem possible. But MVA is still trying by putting name of Pawar into this.
Pawar himself may be using this opportunity to talk to Modi on other issues as well
Most likely scenario in municipal elections in Mumbai. Sena fighting 130 odd and Congress less than 100 might be unacceptable to both. So seat adjustment in polls and post poll alliance might be the game
In mixed population ward, if BJP candidate was a Gujarati or Hindi bhashik; Congress would field a similar candidate to cause vote division. This would enable the Sena candidate dependent on Marathi votes to scrape through.
Plus Sena and Congress would make deals on wards. For example Waikar of Sena and Naseem Khan of Congress would make a deal to leave Jogeshwari wards to Sena and Chandivali/Powai wards to Congress.
Sena would not mobilize voters where alliance partner BJP would fight
Simple rule why Modi govt is unlikely to rollback farm laws and may choose middle path of giving concessions to farm lobby,
These farm laws have started helping farmers in multiple states. Anecdotal evidence suggests that mandi volumes are decreasing. 1/n
Farmers are already benefitting in terms of prices they get as private players are buying outside APMCs. Taxes saved due to out of APMC trades leads to some more price benefit being passed to farmers.
So rolling back the farm bills could actually cost votes to Modi govt. 2/n
And electoral cost is something which no political party or leader will unnecessary pay.
Why pander to protesting farmers who are unlikely to vote for you (in Punjab) and unnecessarily antagonize farmers who are your base.
This is a no brainer. 3/n