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Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
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7 Jan, 4 tweets, 1 min read
HOW 25th AMENDMENT WORKS: 🧵

📌Pence can take over w/ majority vote of Trump’s cabinet.

📌Trump can resist & restore

📌Pence+cabinet can overrule <4 days (unclear who leads during).

📌48 hours for Congress to convene, 21 days to “decide”

📌Pence in charge during 21 days.
2) here is the full details. 25th is easier than impeachment. But 25th is more chaotic.
3) link to the details. washingtonpost.com/nation/2021/01…
4) There’s 13 days until inauguration. Letting Pence run out the clock could be an option.

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More from @DrEricDing

Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
9 Jan
MOST EFFECTIVE INTERVENTIONS: What works best for reducing R(t)?

📌Limiting gatherings <10 people: 42% reduction

📌Closing schools & universities: 38% reduction—which was “remarkably robust“

➡️big paper published in @ScienceMagazine—Legit.

#COVID19 🧵
science.sciencemag.org/content/early/… Image
2) Notice how big a drop school closing offer in dropping R below 3.3 baseline. And especially when combined with other things, schools can bring it down below R<1. #COVID19

@dgurdasani1 has more children’s data - follow here. Image
3) here are the specific details of each govt intervention’s R reduction and their 95% CIs from@the study. Image
Read 7 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
9 Jan
BAD CORONAVIRUS VARIANT DATA—Folks, the B117 #SARSCoV2 variant from 🇬🇧 is a dangerous *hellish beast*. This new UK data shows attack rates (% exposed who get infected) of B117 vs common variants: B117 has 33-36% higher attack rate overall. It’s also maybe worse in kids.🧵#COVID19 Image
2) While the B117 variant is has 33-36% higher attack rate vs common types overall... it’s even greater in youngest kids. Notably, in kids 0-9, the new B117 is 43% higher in the shortcut B117 test.
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl… Image
3) Furthermore, in genetic tests of b117, the B117 has 47.5% higher attack rate vs common virus type among kids age 0-9!

Compare that w/ only 39.5% higher for B117 among adults.

Two separate sets of data—same thing—with both pointing to higher relative increase in young kids. Image
Read 6 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
9 Jan
BREAKING—Reports of a highly contagious new variant in the United States are based on speculative statements made by Dr. Deborah Birx and are inaccurate, according to several government officials. CDC was dismayed and tried to stop her, but failed #COVID19
nytimes.com/2021/01/08/hea…
2) “erroneous report originated at a meeting where Dr. Birx presented graphs of the escalating cases in the country. She suggested to other members of the task force that a new, more transmissible variant originating in the U.S. might explain the surge”
3) “Her hypothesis made it into a weekly report sent to state governors. “This fall/winter surge has been at nearly twice the rate of rise of cases as the spring and summer surges...”
Read 5 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
8 Jan
ROLLOUT FINISH DATE: "All residents at elderly care homes in Denmark 🇩🇰 will have received their first dose of the #COVID19 vaccine by **today**” (if desired).

The entire country of Denmark will have gotten vaccine by June 27th. Wow!

➡️US is so behind.
thelocal.dk/20210108/today… Image
2) adults that is. Children vaccine dosing still awaiting finalization and testing.
3) Denmark is always so damn impressive. Ranking of European countries. Image
Read 4 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
8 Jan
Worried—Freshman GOP Kansas Congressman Jake LaTurner tests #COVID19 positive. Is 11th House member of 117th Congress—all of the same party.

But what worries me is MOCs were all holed up together yesterday during the siege. Many maskless. He was likely infectious.
2) Supposedly MOCs started getting vaccinated. But all the Freshmen MOCs yet? They just got sworn in. Also nobody has had 2nd shot yet. First shot partial protection only
3) Not just members of Congress, but also staffers and people across the US exposed to these people who are likely superspreading it as we speak as they return home.
Read 4 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
7 Jan
JUST IN—we can expect 405,000–438,000 total #COVID19 deaths in the United States **by January 30 alone** if current models hold. They don’t fully account for the more contagious B117 variant though, with 40-80% greater transmissibility.

➡️I think 500,000 by end of Feb possible. Image
2) Feb could be a LOT LOT worse. Death surges lag cases by 3 weeks. And we will see the spikes from the #CapitolRiots in coming weeks.
3) here is why it is so urgent to stop the spread. The new B117 variant is just soooooo damn bad. I don’t have words for it...

...maybe t________r bad. But I don’t wanna throw that word around yet.
Read 4 tweets

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