Thread by @ADMBriggs

Latest @PHE_uk COVID surveillance rpt out, covers 28th Dec to 3rd Jan, will start to capture Christmas mixing.

It's devastating reading. Please do everything you can to comply with lockdown, and ask friends/family/your local gov if you need help.

gov.uk/government/sta…

Case numbers and PCR positivity rising steeply. Across all ages and importantly >18yrs more so than <18yr - note step change in >80yrs.

This is also no longer and issue confined to London and the SE (and some potential v early promise the that London peak may be coming soon).

The map by local authority is no longer particularly helpful.

With the rise in case rates in older adults, the rise in reported care home incidents is really concerning.

The NHS is (rightly) all over the news but care homes cannot be neglected again.

Thankfully the same rise in incidents in hospitals is not being seen.

It's here that things are so concerning. The number of admissions never dropped far enough after the Nov peak.

And with admissions lagging 1-2 weeks after cases, we're still a long way from this getting any better.

London is being most heavily impacted, but admissions are following case rates and rising everywhere.

As @HSJEditor reported yesterday, London could be entirely overwhelmed within a fortnight and the SW now has the highest increases in admission rates.

hsj.co.uk/acute-care/exc…

hsj.co.uk/coronavirus/up…

And ITU is equally dramatic. Lagging a week or so behind hospital admissions, with the Midlands expected to be full within two weeks

hsj.co.uk/coronavirus/ex…

This has implications for ALL of us.

Routine and elective care doesn't happen.

Urgent care delayed.

And the potential to be unable to access emergency care for ANY reason.

And deaths inevitably rise with a 2-4 wk lag from diagnosis. With the UK reaching the grim milestone of over 1,000 COVID-related deaths (28 day definition) reported yesterday.

Irrespective of what happens to cases today, we will continue to see rises in deaths for 2-4 wks.

The ONS has reported 2020 deaths are 14% higher than expected based on a 5 yr average - that's 74,000 excess deaths.

2021 is off to an awful start. Please help by staying at home where you can, and supporting those who can't or are struggling.

https://twitter.com/NickStripe_ONS/status/1346860617735532544?s=20

There is light after all this. The COVID vaccine roll-out has started, there's almost no flu, flu vaccination rates are at record high, and the shortest day of the year is now behind us.

PHE surveil rpt @felly500 @deb_cohen @martinmckee @carolecadwalla @mgtmccartney @ADPHUK @Jeanelleuk @fascinatorfun @profchrisham @petermbenglish @HPIAndyCowper @Davewwest @HSJEditor @KateAlvanley @IndependentSage @nedwards_1 @SamanthaJonesUK @ewanbirney @FurberA @Dr_D_Robertson