One chapter of the interim #Report on Irish unification referendums @ConUnit_UCL contains analysis of public #opinion polls & surveys in NI, GB & Ireland on the subject. 📊📈📉
Do see the report for the details & sources, but here's a snapshot...
bit.ly/3nWfRiC
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Do see the report for the details & sources, but here's a snapshot...
bit.ly/3nWfRiC
1/8
There's been a narrowing of the gap in recent yrs btn pro-Union & pro-Unity responses, & an increasing proportion think a united Ireland will happen at some point.
But if a #referendum were held tomorrow in NI, the combined evidence wouldn’t point to a clear majority Yes vote
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But if a #referendum were held tomorrow in NI, the combined evidence wouldn’t point to a clear majority Yes vote
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Online polling shows higher support for unification than interview-based surveying, even when don’t knows are excluded. 📊
It is important to bear these methodological differences in mind in assessing this evidence. But both types have their place.
3/8
It is important to bear these methodological differences in mind in assessing this evidence. But both types have their place.
3/8
In the NILT @ARK_info 2019 survey, we asked what factors might affect people’s vote when it came to a #referendum.
We found that a strong ROI economy & rejoining EU wd be the strongest pro-Unity influences.
The NHS (pre-covid) was the biggest pull factor towards the Union.
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We found that a strong ROI economy & rejoining EU wd be the strongest pro-Unity influences.
The NHS (pre-covid) was the biggest pull factor towards the Union.
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There aren’t many polls in GB on the topic of Irish unification.
Most find little active desire to see NI leave; Unionist sentiment remains quite steady.
What we have seen is a growth in non-committal responses, i.e. "it is up to NI" (which tbf is in keeping with #1998Agmt)
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Most find little active desire to see NI leave; Unionist sentiment remains quite steady.
What we have seen is a growth in non-committal responses, i.e. "it is up to NI" (which tbf is in keeping with #1998Agmt)
5/8
Public #opinion in Ireland is quite different.
The response of over 70% in favour of Irish unification has persisted for half a century (when don’t knows excluded).
What's interesting is how few such polls were conducted between the #1998Agreement & the Brexit referendum...
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The response of over 70% in favour of Irish unification has persisted for half a century (when don’t knows excluded).
What's interesting is how few such polls were conducted between the #1998Agreement & the Brexit referendum...
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Finally, we ran a public consultation to which we received 1377 responses.
We are grateful to everyone who took the time to complete the survey/submit evidence.
We heard a lot about hopes but also fears across all communities around this subject, esp among young people.
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We are grateful to everyone who took the time to complete the survey/submit evidence.
We heard a lot about hopes but also fears across all communities around this subject, esp among young people.
7/8
This is a reminder – if it were needed – that this topic is m.more than survey or poll results or headline figures or votes.
Any #referendum needs to be approached with care & consideration.
This report is a small contribution towards thinking about what that might entail.
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Any #referendum needs to be approached with care & consideration.
This report is a small contribution towards thinking about what that might entail.
8/8
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