If there was to be a #BorderPoll, how shd it best be designed & conducted?

A gp of academics convened to answer that Q… & we found it to be far from straightforward*
Here’s our interim report bit.ly/3nWfRiC
+a few thoughts
1/8
*Not just cos we like complicating things
The Working Gp was excellently chaired & expertly run… but it was no easy task.

Not just due to our various views/disciplines, but cos there was almost no element that cd not be interpreted in different ways.

Each part of this #report was laboriously debated & discussed.

2/8
We learned that legal matters were one thing (😬) but if we also try to adhere to the #1998Agmt in underlying principles, it becomes even more challenging.

This is only right.

Inclusivity, consensus, British-Irish cooperation… remain essential.
They are also hard-earned.
3/8
After establishing the criteria against which any process should be judged, we set to looking at the nitty gritty🧐

The Q of how & what to plan really comes to the fore.
We argue that, if/when a referendum looks likely, these are the type of Qs both Govts need to consider 👇
4/8
The report also covers issues such as:
the refm in the south to allow the Constitution to respect #1998Agmt obligations,
on what grounds cd a refm be called,
what wd the franchise be,
what wd the Q be,
when wd sovereignty be transferred.
What shd happen before any of this???
5/8
One v.important finding is the need to reform the rules in both Ireland & the UK around referendum campaigning.

They hv significant differences, which cd prove problematic in re: Irish unification referendums.

And each has significant gaps, esp re: funding & social media...
6/8
I’ve written some more in this OpEd for the @BelTel 💭

It says more than a twitter thread, but rather less than a 260 page report 📒

I’ll take this opportunity to acknowledge @ConUnit_UCL @alanjrenwick @ConorKellyLDN @chhkincaid @BritishAcademy_

belfasttelegraph.co.uk/opinion/news-a…
7/8
Finally, over to you!

This is an interim report because we wanted to get responses from as many as possible in response to our findings… With the intention of making them better.

Details on how to do so are in the Exec Summary:
ucl.ac.uk/constitution-u…

More anon, no doubt.
8/8

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More from @hayward_katy

5 Oct
You may know this:
UK #InternalMarket Bill has arrived @UKHouseofLords.
But prob. no debate til after crunch EU Council, i.e. week after next.

But what you may not know:
It looks quite different to way it did before, inc. *big* amendments to part on N.Ireland #Protocol...
🧐
1/8 Picture of Part 5 of the UK Internal Market bill first page
Eagle-eyed viewers among you will have spotted the first change.
The clauses have different numbers #⃣
Part 5 now starts with 42, not 40.

So the contentious clauses (which, "yes, do break international law") are now:
44 [export declns],
45 [state aid]
& 47 [law? schmaw!].

2/8
The amendments made in @HouseofCommons (covered here) were proposed by the UK Govt.

Clause 42 (GB to NI) no change.

Clause 43: changes to allow new checks to occur NI to GB for certain purposes.

These amendments allow such checks for
* VAT & Excise
* GB biosecurity

3/8
Read 8 tweets
17 Sep
First reaction to this UKG statement on the 'Notwithstanding' clauses:

It is quite the opposite of reassuring.

TL;DR Less of a climbdown than a feint.

#Protocol

1/

gov.uk/government/pub…
The statement shows the UK Internal Market Bill was only the half of it...

At the end it promises more such moves to come in the Finance Bill,
"inc. the same Parliamentary process that the Govt has committed to for the UKIM Bill" to related to "tariffs on GB-NI movement"...

2/
This is a statement for those not familiar with the NI/IRL Protocol - i.e. it is aimed at MPs who may still have niggles about the whole 'putting law-breaking into law' thing.

It is certainly not one intended to address the key matter, or to rebuild necessary trust with EU.

3/
Read 8 tweets
13 Sep
N.Ireland is once again the rope in the UK/EU tug of war.

(we've been here before, several times 🙄😩)

Both claim to be acting on the grounds of the Good Friday/Belfast 1998 Agreement.
🇬🇧🇪🇺🇮🇪

Both have a point…

But it’s complicated.

A twitter thread.
#Brexit #GFA
1/13
The Belfast/Good Friday #Agreement has 3 strands.

These strands represent the lines of division that gave rise to the #conflict:
* unionist/nationalist within NI,
* north/south across the border, &
* British/Irish.

The B/GFA formalised cooperation across these lines.
2/13
Crucially, all are #interdependent.

Underpinning it all is the British-Irish relationship
🇬🇧🇮🇪

That relationship was improved & became closer as a result of being ‘partners in the EU’ 🇪🇺

The EU was also a go-to model for some of that cross-border & multilevel cooperation.
3/13
Read 13 tweets
7 Aug
The #Brexit #Protocol Press Release from UK Gov today was titled
“Major £650 million investment for Northern Ireland” 💸
Which is one way of putting it.

Another might be: “This is costing us a pretty packet… & we’re only warming up”.

Thread (containing a beautiful SLIDE!)
1/8
Most of that £££££ is to fund a Trader Support Service #TSS to help businesses manage the new regime for getting goods into NI from GB & RoW.

The TSS is "new & unprecedented".

See @AnnaJerzewska's razor sharp analysis of quite what that means.

2/8

So.
Never been done before.
It's only being announced now.
Still at procurement stage.

Yet UKG promise it will be operational in September.

Movement of goods from GB-NI will be depending on it come 1 January 2021.

Let’s just say, we are cutting it fine.

3/8
Read 8 tweets
16 Jul
The UK Govt is publishing a white paper today on the UK #InternalMarket

Press release 👇talks about powers going back to the #devolveds & jobs being protected

This isn't quite how the devolved govts see it 🧐

Here's a quick overview of the challenge:
1/
gov.uk/government/new…
The European single market enabled frictionless trade within the UK even as devolved pwrs grew
🇬🇧🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿

#Brexit opens the possibility for growing divergence & internal barriers to trade.

It's a knotty challenge to meet, given serious economic, policy & political differences.

2/
How can the #UKIM challenge be met?

@UKandEU @McEwen_Nicola
@DanielWinc & I outline 4 poss. approaches (& strengths, weaknesses, likelihood)

UKG White paper is option 1, but with elements of 2 & 3 included.

It's ambitious.
& bound to be contentious.

Here are the 4 options:
3/
Read 11 tweets
19 Jun
So what's happening to views on Irish unification in NI?

More from @ARK_info #NILifeTimes survey #nilt2019 📊

This incl. long-standing Qs plus some new ones about whether certain things would encourage or discourage people from voting in favour of a #UnitedIreland.
THREAD
1/7
#NILifeTimes (face-to-face, random sampling) has different results from internet polling e.g. @LucidTalk re: proportion wanting Irish unity.

It's reasonable to say our figure (c.1/4) prob. too low, theirs (c.1/2) prob. too high, & the 'real' figure is somewhere in-between.

2/7
The great value of NILT is that it is a time series survey, ie. same Q & method over 20+yrs.

Overall, there hasn't been a dramatic surge in support for Irish unity.

Devolution remains preferred long-term policy (even though it wasn't functioning when Q asked).
#nilt2019

3/7
Read 7 tweets

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