If there was to be a #BorderPoll, how shd it best be designed & conducted?
A gp of academics convened to answer that Q… & we found it to be far from straightforward*
Here’s our interim report bit.ly/3nWfRiC
+a few thoughts 1/8 *Not just cos we like complicating things
The Working Gp was excellently chaired & expertly run… but it was no easy task.
Not just due to our various views/disciplines, but cos there was almost no element that cd not be interpreted in different ways.
Each part of this #report was laboriously debated & discussed.
2/8
We learned that legal matters were one thing (😬) but if we also try to adhere to the #1998Agmt in underlying principles, it becomes even more challenging.
This is only right.
Inclusivity, consensus, British-Irish cooperation… remain essential.
They are also hard-earned. 3/8
After establishing the criteria against which any process should be judged, we set to looking at the nitty gritty🧐
The Q of how & what to plan really comes to the fore.
We argue that, if/when a referendum looks likely, these are the type of Qs both Govts need to consider 👇 4/8
The report also covers issues such as:
the refm in the south to allow the Constitution to respect #1998Agmt obligations,
on what grounds cd a refm be called,
what wd the franchise be,
what wd the Q be,
when wd sovereignty be transferred.
What shd happen before any of this??? 5/8
One v.important finding is the need to reform the rules in both Ireland & the UK around referendum campaigning.
They hv significant differences, which cd prove problematic in re: Irish unification referendums.
And each has significant gaps, esp re: funding & social media... 6/8
I’ve written some more in this OpEd for the @BelTel 💭
It says more than a twitter thread, but rather less than a 260 page report 📒
This is an interim report because we wanted to get responses from as many as possible in response to our findings… With the intention of making them better.
The statement shows the UK Internal Market Bill was only the half of it...
At the end it promises more such moves to come in the Finance Bill,
"inc. the same Parliamentary process that the Govt has committed to for the UKIM Bill" to related to "tariffs on GB-NI movement"...
2/
This is a statement for those not familiar with the NI/IRL Protocol - i.e. it is aimed at MPs who may still have niggles about the whole 'putting law-breaking into law' thing.
It is certainly not one intended to address the key matter, or to rebuild necessary trust with EU.
3/
These strands represent the lines of division that gave rise to the #conflict:
* unionist/nationalist within NI,
* north/south across the border, &
* British/Irish.
The B/GFA formalised cooperation across these lines.
2/13
This incl. long-standing Qs plus some new ones about whether certain things would encourage or discourage people from voting in favour of a #UnitedIreland.
THREAD
1/7
#NILifeTimes (face-to-face, random sampling) has different results from internet polling e.g. @LucidTalk re: proportion wanting Irish unity.
It's reasonable to say our figure (c.1/4) prob. too low, theirs (c.1/2) prob. too high, & the 'real' figure is somewhere in-between.
2/7
The great value of NILT is that it is a time series survey, ie. same Q & method over 20+yrs.
Overall, there hasn't been a dramatic surge in support for Irish unity.
Devolution remains preferred long-term policy (even though it wasn't functioning when Q asked). #nilt2019