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Peter Salisbury

11 Jan, 7 tweets, 3 min read

@CrisisGroup

We @CrisisGroup have been clear in explaining why we oppose the designation of the Huthis as a terrorist organization.

Doing so risks collectively punishing all #Yemenis by precipitating a famine while doing little to hurt the Huthis other than pushing them closer to Iran...

...We first wrote about the likely consequences of a designation in October

crisisgroup.org/united-states/…

@CrisisGroup

... and in November my @CrisisGroup boss @Rob_Malley and I wrote that a designation would likely prolong and increase the war’s devastating humanitarian consequences.

washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/1…

...Along with many others we’ve relayed our assessment to numerous senior US officials over the last three months. I know that many agreed with us, but the decision has been made at a senior level to push ahead...

..We’ve also been careful to try to understand the arguments for a designation and articulate them honestly in our work. Many on the anti Huthi side fear that the Huthis are so strong that they have no reason to compromise in a political settlement to end the war....

... that the designation will weaken them financially and convince their supporters they have no long-term viability. And that the economic consequences will be limited.

Our research and analysis suggests otherwise...

... I don’t say this often. But I hope We are wrong.

Because if the impact of this designation is half as bad as has been predicted it is millions of ordinary Yemenis who are struggling to eat who will pay the price, while already distant prospects of peace slip away.

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More from @peterjsalisbury

Peter Salisbury

@peterjsalisbury

27 Nov 20

@Rob_Malley

Now up: @Rob_Malley and I on the case against an FTO designation for the Huthis. We argue it would deepen the humanitarian crisis, potentially sparking famine, and likely prolong the war.

https://twitter.com/Rob_Malley/status/1332359719562964992

I’ve had several long conversations in recent days with Yemeni friends who disagree: as we write, there is a strong feeling on the other side of this conversation that a designation would provide leverage with the Huthis that would force them into negotiations w/ a weakened hand.

Some see the designation as a last chance to get the US to apply real pressure to the Houthis before the Biden administration enters the White House. And maybe a last chance to change the balance of power in yemen.

Read 8 tweets

Peter Salisbury

@peterjsalisbury

9 Apr 20

So what’s going on with the ceasefire in #Yemen? Well, there isn’t one - yet.

The good news: You can't break a ceasefire that doesn't exist.

The bad news: No ceasefire.

#Thread (1/10)

The UN special envoy to Yemen and Secretary General have both called for a ceasefire. And yesterday Saudi Arabia announced a unilateral halt to its military activities in Yemen for two weeks, which it called a ceasefire. But...

(2/10)

For there to be an actual ceasefire we need an agreement between the warring parties and more importantly for the fighting to stop. Neither has happened. In fact, since the SG's call for a freeze two weeks ago violence has intensified.

So what now?

(3/10)

Read 11 tweets

Peter Salisbury

@peterjsalisbury

16 Mar 20

As a onetime freelancer who worked from home *a lot* I have limited transferable skills. But I do have some knowledge of what most of us are going to be dealing with in the next few weeks/months. Here are 5 short thoughts on how to stay sane during coronatine.

1. Try to keep regular work hours. The temptation will be there to start later in the day or take the afternoon off and catch up in the evening. But then work time and rest time merge into one another and you end up being in constant almost-work mode. This is A Very Bad Idea.

2. If you can, set up a work space somewhere different from where relax in the evening. Working from the sofa is fun! Until you live on the sofa. See also point 1. Find somewhere with decent daylight (it keeps you sane) where you can focus (no TV nearby).

Read 7 tweets

Peter Salisbury

@peterjsalisbury

28 Oct 19

So, the Riyadh Agreement (RIP, Jeddah Agreement) between STC and Hadi gov still hasn't been signed but a ceremony is reportedly imminent and a draft of what is the near-final text has now been distributed widely. Some quick thoughts (#Thread).

Draft is made up of a series of cascading/staggered national / local political and security arrangements aimed at integrating STC/southern secessionist political and affiliated forces into national defence/security structures. In return, STC participates in UN-led consultations.

If successful, the agreement solves two short-term problems:
- It prevents a war-within-a-war between STC and Hadi government
- It provides more credibility to future government negotiating platform with the Huthis.
Great!

Read 10 tweets

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