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Beͫvͣaͬnͨd Profile picture
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11 Jan, 4 tweets, 2 min read
Latest official Swedish population stats: 𝟵𝟳,𝟭𝟲𝟰 preliminary deaths recorded in 2020

As per my analysis year 2020 has:
➡️highest excess mortality since 1931 (population-adjusted)
➡️most excess deaths since 1918 flu pandemic
➡️highest absolute mortality since 2013

#sweden
Source: scb.se/en/finding-sta…

Which is the link found under "Preliminary statistics on deaths (published 2021-01-11)" at scb.se/en/finding-sta… .
Final figures for 2020 will be known around February 2021 and will probably stabilize around high 97,000s or low 98,000s total deaths.
Government agency SCB agrees with my estimate

I calculate 6425 excess deaths, while SCB estimates between 6000 and 7000: dn.se/sverige/sverig… .

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More from @zorinaq

Beͫvͣaͬnͨd Profile picture
22 Dec 20
Here's my weekly update from SCB on mortality in Sweden.

Year 2020 has:
(1) the highest excess mortality since 1937 (pop. adjusted)
(2) the most excess deaths since 1919 (not pop. adjusted)
(3) annulled 7 years of all-cause mortality decline (highest ACM since 2013)

1/n
For their part, the Swedish government estimates 4859 as of 30 Nov:

2/n
The line representing average expected mortality on my chart is a LOWESS regression

Normally demographers use more sophisticated statistical algorithms (eg. Farrington) to do so. LOWESS is a sloppy technique, but it works well enough for rough estimates

3/n
Read 4 tweets
Beͫvͣaͬnͨd Profile picture
30 Nov 20
The timing of when self-sustained transmission starts is crucial:

A and B are 2 identical countries implementing the same lockdown policy at the same time

If self-sustained transmission starts 𝟱 𝗱𝗮𝘆𝘀 𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗹𝗶𝗲𝗿 in A, then A will have 𝘁𝘄𝗶𝗰𝗲 the number of deaths
This is just math, based on various estimates that the epidemic doubling time of COVID was less than 5 days before lockdowns in spring 2020
academic.oup.com/jid/article/22…
In fact, because of this short doubling time, the timing between self-sustained transmission and lockdown is one of the most important factors that determines cumulative deaths per capita

This explains NYC and the Nordic countries. See next tweet.
Read 4 tweets
Beͫvͣaͬnͨd Profile picture
29 Nov 20
A thread to refute the nonsense spewed by #covid deniers/minimizers...
#1 "It's just the flu"

No, vast majority of studies disagree:
#2 "Really, it's just the flu"

Really, no:
Read 19 tweets
Beͫvͣaͬnͨd Profile picture
27 Nov 20
This chart shows Sweden's mortality rate & excess deaths since 1900

While COVID-19 *seems* to be a small bump in mortality, 2020 has the most excess deaths of any year since the 1918 influenza pandemic

These ~4700 excess deaths are supported by SCB:

1/n
The line representing average expected mortality on the chart is a LOWESS regression

Normally demographers use more sophisticated statistical algorithm (eg. Farrington) to do so. LOWESS is kind of a sloppy technique, but it works well enough

2/n
For more accurate results, I didn't include 2020 data in the LOWESS regression. Instead I cut off the smoothing at 2019, and assume that without COVID-19 the expected mortality would have continued its generally improving trend of the last decades through 2020

3/n
Read 12 tweets
Beͫvͣaͬnͨd Profile picture
25 Nov 20
Things that happened in Sweden in last 2 months:

• family isolation
• ban public events of more than 8
• cinemas/museums/gyms closed
• nightlife curbed (alcohol ban)
• Tegnell: yes to face masks
• nursing home visit ban
• + many restrictions

Sources: see links below

1/n
Family isolation: household contacts of infected persons not allowed to go to work (since 01 Oct) folkhalsomyndigheten.se/nyheter-och-pr…

2/n
Ban on public events lowered to 8 people since Nov 24 dn.se/sverige/allman…

3/n
Read 9 tweets
Beͫvͣaͬnͨd Profile picture
18 Nov 20
I dusted off my COVID-19 model (that predicted the Florida July wave) & applied it to Sweden

After today's data update from the Swedish Public Health Agency (FHM) I confidently forecast Sweden will surpass the peak of 100 COVID deaths/day they had in April

Hard to believe?

1/n Image
Specifically: by 25 December we will see Sweden has recorded 100 deaths/day around 11 December

(due to reporting delays, it takes up to 2 weeks past a given date to have a complete count of deaths on this date: )

2/n
My model is formally described in outbreak.flashpub.io/pub/method-of-…

It predicts deaths from cases alone, but let me explain in layman's terms how it works...

3/n
Read 17 tweets

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