(0) I’m a little #drunj, so here’s a belated 2021-2025 prediction. It becomes much easier to predict 5-10 years out vs. the next year so apologies for the cop-out. I think the outcome would be bifurcated.
(1) Libra equivalent / ETH 2.0 + L2 / Polkadot set off the flywheel of infrastructure prompting application improvements and vice versa, whereby ecosystems and stacks compete for capital and talent. I personally bias towards open, permissionless blockchains.
(2) 1st iteration killer app / use-case emerges utilizing the valuenet and we go through a 1999-type mania. I don’t know what it is, but it’d have to utilize L1+ #DeFi and does something impossible today. It’d be painfully obvious for anyone active in the ecosystem today.
(3) BTC sees a 2013-15 type pattern mostly due to Fed + China CB action + faces at least one near-death moments (with confluence of rush-to-allocate + hard-handed crack-down). Ultimately CB and corporates become nodes & it gets integrated into the system.
(4) >1 Web 2.0 FAANG type business completely buy into it and scale to 5-10 trillion USD. Heavy-asset biz (like SQ w/ physical CAC for merchants or AAPL / GOOGL w/ mobile hardware) would be the 1st beneficiary and dominant w/ their reach.
(5) A new consensus mechanism will emerge that lowers cost exponentially without sacrificing security as the next iteration of L2 scaling, POW, or POS. The mechanism will also grow to be quantum-resistant. Debate remains about entropy towards destruction.
(6) “Stakeholder Agreement” iterates to semi-maturity via much trial-and-error. It’d be similar to how LLC / shareholder agreements get drawn and there will be best practices on how a launch / incentive / reward mechanism would look like for a stakeholder-common.
(7) The battle amongst US / China colonies w/ a 3-reserve system (USD / CNY / Crypto) could lead to an EM / FM boom as nations find competitive advantage while shielding themselves from rates cycles of east and west. Blockchain unleashes talent globally and empowers EM nations.
(8) The collective of crypto exceed gold market cap w/ space exploration + boomers handing off wealth to next generation. Digital value > physical value becomes consensus (unless global hot war breaks out). National boundaries begin to fall.
(9) Wall-street / financing mechanisms at fingertip becomes semi-reality with sovereign individuals – first with programmers, then wide-spread adoption. Nation-states/ violent actors would have no choice but to offer recourse + credit as a service.
10) If none of the above materializes, we could stare into the abyss & nuclear winters w/ revolutions due to wealth-gap divide and revolts against the 1%. There could be a inequality-induced extremist hot-war amidst global depression. Avoidance of such would be a huge win.

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More from @MapleLeafCap

24 Dec 20
Continue to like the pace at which the @BreederDodo team iterates + take user feedbacks. Looking forward to v2.0 with more features. A few additional thoughts on how AMM+ may evolve in the next 6 months:
Protocols need clean roadmaps for both 2C and 2B -- 2C is as in a solid interface for all key functions a degen may need (assuming trading isn't disintermediated), and 2B is Biz Dev for POS + best algo / optimization for aggregators.
I could argue that all AMM would need to become aggregators eventually (with private pools), and vice versa -- for when you worked so hard on CAC for a customer, you don't want them leaving to another venue. The same goes for adding lend/borrow, derivative features as well
Read 7 tweets
16 Dec 20
(0) Since our last report on July 4th, 2020, The #DeFi space and our mental framework had evolved enough to prompt another iteration – a deck about the broader #valuenet and ETH-based #DeFi / #WallstreetAPI. As usual, would appreciate any feedback!

Link: drive.google.com/file/d/1eTuhqn…
(0.5) As #Bitcoin soars to uncharted heights today and hitting sweetest part of adoption S-curve at 3rd to 4th inning, we feel like broader #valuenet + #DeFi concept is barely at top half of first inning. If one is so adventurous, this is likely where the next 100-10,000x is born
(1) @cdixon coined the term “game-theoretic guarantee” for tx offered by L0/L1s (too cogent not to steal) -- this nascent, transparent, market-driven alternative harbors a different cost function vs. the legacy recourse-deterring ones, as seen by the Value-transfer-cost U-curve.
Read 28 tweets
14 Nov 20
(0) This will be a thread about $DHT, what I deem the prime brokerage /custodian / managerial platform on top of $SNX. While you are at it, if you think you got the chops, make sure to apply to the $500k seed investment to kickstart your fund:
(1) $DHT’s core function very similar to a combo of SS&C, Millennium pod platform, StanChar custodian, and JPM Prime Broker. All the back-end & admin details taken care of, so all a manager needs to do is to generate returns (algo or discretionary)
(2) For any aspiring traders, value-prop is simple – if one has so much alpha, why not leverage that know-how and earn some carry? Those that can, do; those who can’t would just larp / shitpost on youtube / twitter while selling newsletters (you know who you are).
Read 16 tweets
1 Nov 20
(0) While the progress of L2 is on-going, I think another area within #DeFi is highly interesting today and remains slightly underexplored by buidlers and speculators / investors alike – tools & modularization add-ons ($GRT, $Gauntlet, $KP3R, $GYSR)
(1) In this thread I will give 2 types of directions I see today – (a) B2B type buidler tools like $GRT and $Gauntlet, and (b) process-streamlining / modularization tools like $GYSR and $KP3R. This is not endorsement by any sorts but merely highlighting what’s cool out there.
(2) B2B tools by definition service the buidler community to help them buidl better – and there are 2 areas one can find particularly visible that’s almost blockchain / web3 native: one is faster retrieval of standardized on-chain data, and other being simulation of all sorts.
Read 26 tweets
24 Oct 20
(0) I’ve been quiet for a while but that’s because the Web3 space today is in serious #buidl mode and I don’t have much to say. Some preliminary thoughts on gov, #DeFi, and CBDC after the past 2-3 months; as usual if I have more time, it’d be more coherent and shorter.
(1) Only users that contribute to network effect of protocol deserves to be rewarded. The pure value provided by a good service (for non-network-effect biz) is good enough for most users, giving them more value-capture is dilutive to protocol value. Most users don’t deserve shit.
(2) Control is needed to retain flexibility in times of shock / need for intervention. #DeFi apps before maturity are not L1/L2 where decentralization is foundational feature. To quote Bo @ Dragonfly, Web2 apps are trains where adjustments to carts & passengers are constant…
Read 12 tweets
17 Sep 20
Hot $UNI takes
- Initial reaction is dump $UNI into your favorite token across (long best DEFI coins)
- 2nd reaction is long ETH as alts take-profit + buy to farm $UNI.
- 3rd reaction is ETH based farms likely higher yield given ETH goes to $UNI pool (percent & pickle to name 2)
- 4th reaction WBTC getting love w/ $UNI pool = BTC onchain up = accelerated pull from exchange to ETH, bullish $BTC
- 5th reaction new projs launching could weak book build (like $DHT) but could moon post listing w/ profits from factors above.
- 6th reaction is arbs will be everywhere ($AAVE migration, basis trades, etc) due to fund capital constraints. Free money for those w/ capital
- 7th reaction is gas fee is gonna moon, long L2 tokens + gas token as derivative play. Spare stablecoins will get ridic borrow fees
Read 5 tweets

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