Thread by @MapleLeafCap

(0) I’m a little #drunj, so here’s a belated 2021-2025 prediction. It becomes much easier to predict 5-10 years out vs. the next year so apologies for the cop-out. I think the outcome would be bifurcated.

(1) Libra equivalent / ETH 2.0 + L2 / Polkadot set off the flywheel of infrastructure prompting application improvements and vice versa, whereby ecosystems and stacks compete for capital and talent. I personally bias towards open, permissionless blockchains.

(2) 1st iteration killer app / use-case emerges utilizing the valuenet and we go through a 1999-type mania. I don’t know what it is, but it’d have to utilize L1+ #DeFi and does something impossible today. It’d be painfully obvious for anyone active in the ecosystem today.

(3) BTC sees a 2013-15 type pattern mostly due to Fed + China CB action + faces at least one near-death moments (with confluence of rush-to-allocate + hard-handed crack-down). Ultimately CB and corporates become nodes & it gets integrated into the system.

(4) >1 Web 2.0 FAANG type business completely buy into it and scale to 5-10 trillion USD. Heavy-asset biz (like SQ w/ physical CAC for merchants or AAPL / GOOGL w/ mobile hardware) would be the 1st beneficiary and dominant w/ their reach.

(5) A new consensus mechanism will emerge that lowers cost exponentially without sacrificing security as the next iteration of L2 scaling, POW, or POS. The mechanism will also grow to be quantum-resistant. Debate remains about entropy towards destruction.

(6) “Stakeholder Agreement” iterates to semi-maturity via much trial-and-error. It’d be similar to how LLC / shareholder agreements get drawn and there will be best practices on how a launch / incentive / reward mechanism would look like for a stakeholder-common.

(7) The battle amongst US / China colonies w/ a 3-reserve system (USD / CNY / Crypto) could lead to an EM / FM boom as nations find competitive advantage while shielding themselves from rates cycles of east and west. Blockchain unleashes talent globally and empowers EM nations.

(8) The collective of crypto exceed gold market cap w/ space exploration + boomers handing off wealth to next generation. Digital value > physical value becomes consensus (unless global hot war breaks out). National boundaries begin to fall.

(9) Wall-street / financing mechanisms at fingertip becomes semi-reality with sovereign individuals – first with programmers, then wide-spread adoption. Nation-states/ violent actors would have no choice but to offer recourse + credit as a service.

10) If none of the above materializes, we could stare into the abyss & nuclear winters w/ revolutions due to wealth-gap divide and revolts against the 1%. There could be a inequality-induced extremist hot-war amidst global depression. Avoidance of such would be a huge win.