Headline inflation ticked up slightly and is mostly a balancing act between rising goods inflation and falling services inflation.
2/
Goods inflation continues to rise, jumping to nearly 4% on a year over year basis.
Goods inflation (and industrial commodities) are rising due to manufacturing backlogs caused by shutdowns and the overall shift to at-home goods consumption and away from services consumption.
3/
Services inflation was nearly always above the average rate of headline inflation but the trend has reversed with goods inflation now the driver and services inflation dragging down the headline and core.
4/
Once the economy re-opens, supply chains are freed and inventories are restocked, goods inflation will start to decline again.
The question is whether services inflation rises to balance the trend or if the permanent damage to the service sector causes a structural decline.
5/5
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This is because of a sudden & forced shift to at home goods consumption that caught everyone offsides
The restocking upturn is set to continue
Once the industrial upturn runs it's course, we'll be back to the same old trends
1/
There's been a secular trend of services consumption growing faster than goods consumption.
2/
That trend shifted suddenly but is unlikely to last for years after the economy re-opens. This shift is likely temporary and a result of forced lockdowns, fear of consumer-facing businesses, etc.
Long-term expectations do not change as frequently as daily market fluctuations would make it seem.
A quick update on Treasury rates through the lens of the DKW model
*As of Dec. 31*
1/
In previous threads, I made the distinction between long-term secular trends in growth and inflation and shorter-term (2-6 quarters) trends in nGDP growth
Right now, the long-term trends are unaltered because long-term trends just don't change that fast but we have a very strong cyclical upturn in the economy, centered primarily on the shift to goods consumption bolstering the manufacturing sector and industrial commodities.
Consensus continues to conflate the inflation story, mixing and matching long-term and short-term charts to fit what is generally a secular inflation narrative.
Here are my two cents to make the distinction clear.
1)
There are long-term, secular trends in inflation driven by trend economic growth, monetary policy & fiscal policy.
There are also short-term trends in inflation that are driven by the ups and downs in the manufacturing industry.
2)
If we look at any of the critical long-term monetary variables, a secular shift in inflation is not yet in the cards.
The money multiplier "m" continues to fall which means the new money supply is coming from fiscal spending (finance day to day needs) and QE from non-banks.
M1 money supply is rising at nearly 70% year over year
What is going on and does this mean inflation is coming?
Shorter Answer: No
Longer Answer: Not from the monetary channel
1)
Money supply started to accelerate at the end of March, almost 9 months ago
Inflation was the concern at the time.
"Not in the short-term" but over the long-run was the phrase
9 months later & inflation is lower than when the pandemic started because velocity collapsed
2)
There is a cyclical upturn ongoing in the manufacturing sector which is giving rise to "goods" inflation but that is wholly separate from the (lack of) inflation emerging from the monetary channel that many fear with posts of M1 or M2 money growth.