There's a 1970s style energy crisis playing out in Japan, Korea & China with hardly any attention from rest of the world. Gas & coal supply shortages, spikes in demand from harsh winter & rationing...but there are deeper roots. @JKempEnergy sets out analytical framework.
2/ Mindblowing that one reason energy use & prices are spiking in E Asia is Covid Ventilation. Offices, homes etc opening windows to prevent buildup of virus aerosols while also blasting heat during freezing winter. Thread on crisis japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/12/2…
3/ My kingdom for an LNG tanker. An unprecedented shortage of liquefied natural gas tankers has made them the most expensive ships ever hired to ferry commodities. Excellent reporting on E Asian energy crisis by @SStapczynski @a_shiryaevskaya bloomberg.com/news/articles/… Image
4/ Electricity utilities in E Asia gambled that Covid would reduce demand so didn't stockpile enough during winter. The opposite happened. Now, a wave of rationing in China, Japan & Korea as companies beg customers to turn electricity off but keep heat on. ft.com/content/7a98f9…
5/ In 1970s crisis, US/Europe shut down all oil-powered electric plants & built 100s of domestic coal plants. In E Asian 2021 crisis, Japan's supply crunch is so bad that utilities starts to run coal plants using fuel-oil instead. A boost for oil producers
6/ Proximal cause of E Asia energy crisis is freezing weather. Heating needs scale non-linearly w each colder degree. Beijing recorded its lowest temps since 1966, while temps were on average ~6°C below 10-year seasonal norm during January in Seoul & Tokyo reuters.com/article/us-asi…
7/ The polar vortex that brought Arctic weather & roiled E Asian energy markets is about to hit Europe. Becalmed conditions are expected to stifle Europe’s wind generation & nuclear plant outages on supply side combined w demand spike from chill. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
8/ What happens in the Arctic does not stay in the Arctic. 2020 saw extreme Arctic circle heat, raging wildfires, warming oceans, disappearing sea ice...

Now, the polar vortex is splitting in two & weeks of wild winter weather in E Asia & Europe. washingtonpost.com/weather/2021/0…
9/ There's a pretty pentagonal Rossby wave in the jet stream circling the Northern hemisphere at 250 hPa right now. Wild winter weather & elecricity grid outages for everyone! earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/… Image
10/ Global warming =>Volatile weather.'From Japan to Pakistan & from France to China, electricity & natural gas market comes under enormous tension strain this winter'@rachelmorison
More stories connecting dots now that Pandemic made us see global system? bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
11/ We broke the Arctic. Cold blast sweeping Northern hemisphere is causing chaos in energy markets

France's utility asks customers to delay laundry
Japan pleads to consumers to lower usage
China curbs power supplies to industries bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
12/ Japan's power crunch this winter has helped to shift public debate about nuclear power, its energy minister told the FT. Nuclear had been replaced by gas & coal after Fukushima.

“I’m trying to persuade everybody that in the end we need nuclear power” ft.com/content/47b189…
13/ E Asian energy crisis gets a 7.1 mag quake as millions go without power
"Thermal Plants Shutdown Following Japan Quake

About 7 gigawatts worth of gas/coal-fired power capacity has been shut for maintenance following the quake in Fukushima prefecture" bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
14 / We broke the Arctic. Cold blast sweeping N hemisphere causing chaos in energy markets

France's utility asks customers to delay laundry
Japan pleads to consumers to lower usage
The US is suffering a bitter cold snap; gas prices soar & pipes burst.
14 / Respect Japan's engineering & infrastructure planners who have earthquake proofed the country. A 7.2 EQ just shaken off & everything up & running in a day. Gas grids get automatically turned off so no fires from line breaks;buildings sway, not fall...
14 / Energy crisis in Texas after winter storm. Governor issues disaster declaration for every county. #TexasFreeze
What happens in the Arctic doesn't stay in the Arctic! Frozen pipes, rationing & outages this week as demand >supply bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
15/ Unbelievable spike in energy demand with the Arctic reaching down to Texas, as everyone turns on their electric heaters, all at once! Texas at this moment of climate crisis is using 6 TIMES more power (~70 GW) than all 200 million ppl in Nigeria.

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More from @70sBachchan

25 Dec 20
Between the pandemic & california mega fires & american dysfunction 2020 has been Mike Davis' cassandraesque year. But every time you think he's hit Peak Bleak, turns out he's still climbing... substack.sashafrerejones.com/p/friday-decem…
thankfully mike davis was completely wrong about the uneven burden of Covid. It hit poor countries of the subcontinent & africa much less than richer europe & americas.
Terrible as covid-19 is, a reminder that it could have been deadlier. Spanish flu killed the young more than the old. 60% of global mortality, some 20 million of 1918-19's toll was in India. Industrial Agriculture & inequality as Mike Davis warns will eventually produce a monster
Read 6 tweets
13 Nov 20
The definition of ideology is that it is immune to empirical refutation. Facts literally bounce off it.
2/ Scientists who have to pay attention to how reality works & not ideological words are devastatingly clear as to which governments least followed science in dealing with COVID-19.
economist.com/graphic-detail… Image
3/ Reality is that which, when you stop believing in it, or find prettier ways to talk about it, or ignore it, doesn't go away. The 21stC is the Age of Consequences — of reality biting back, and we must learn to bend to its will. #viraltime #climatechange
Read 16 tweets
30 Sep 20
Neither the first case on West Coast or Germany in mid-January snowballed. It was chain of transmission from China to Italy to NYC in early Feb that sparked transatlantic explosion.

Francis Collins on latest research integrating phylogenetics & travel directorsblog.nih.gov/2020/09/22/how…
1st mea culpa of WHO's line that precautionary travel restrictions are ineffective @adam_tooze. Tellingly, comes about in "wealth before health" lawsuit in Austrian ski resort.
nytimes.com/2020/09/30/wor…
E Asian govts did restrictions/screening passngrs/hotel quarantine in realtime Image
WHO anti-travel restrictions line was classic science & politics contest. This is @HelenBranswell Jan 26th report after vote to declare intl emergency went 50-50.
"Experts Warn of Possible Sustained Global Spread of New Coronavirus" statnews.com/2020/01/26/con… Image
Read 13 tweets
24 Sep 20
"Get rid of the ballots & you'll have a very peaceful - There won't be a transfer, frankly. There'll be a continuation"
Trump refuses a peaceful transfer of power if he loses in November
news.yahoo.com/trump-campaign…

Getting clear that Military will be required defenseone.com/ideas/2020/08/…
At the moment of constitutional crisis on Jan 20th, 2021, will US military escort the former president from the White House or do nothing & watch Black Lives Matter plaza become Tahrir Square?

Open letter to Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen Milley defenseone.com/ideas/2020/08/… Image
3/ US will need a pacted transition to incentivize Trump leaving, w minimum violence. Republican & Dem elites will have to remove his fear of prosecution for manifest crimes. People protesting on streets cannot credibly commit to amnesty. ht @TomPepinsky
tompepinsky.com/2020/07/27/the…
Read 4 tweets
23 Sep 20
Xi's UN speech w commitment to CO2 peak *before* 2030 is significant fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/zxxx_6…
Its "Green Revolution" framing is also driven by domestic opinion that's angry about joblessness & the megafloods of 2020 where millions suffered in farms & cities
China's 40y miracle manages to piss everyone off:

WorldBank: bastards didnt do Washington Consensus
Nationalists: richest dude is Taiwanese & most FDI comes from Japan/US
Left: You privatized half the State?
Greens: Coal & Concrete
Pentagon: We made a Monster
#GeopoliticsOfGHGs
Isn't stabilising dangerous warming in US national interest? Here's former secretary of state James Baker & Shultz making the case for green detente & linkage under conditions of mutually assured destruction. #GeopoliticsOfGHGs clcouncil.org/reports/Foreig… Image
Read 10 tweets
23 Sep 20
"Achieving carbon neutrality requires eliminating most fossil fuel use in power generation, heating, industry & transport...IF it is made the guiding vision for invstmt, innovation & policymaking in China"-@laurimyllyvirta

Litmus test: Canceling new Coal energyandcleanair.org/china-2060-car…
Climate is Natl Security policy is Industrial policy is Econ policy #GeopoliticsOfGHGs

Its a Market mover, a Oil & Gas importer vulnerable to blockades, an "Electrostate", a Green Power Politics move, a ecologically fragile state all rolled into one economist.com/briefing/2020/…
"Chinese companies have invested in mines from DRC to Chile..securing access to minerals needed for solar panels,electric vehicles...
Unable to be a Petrostate, it is becoming an Electrostate, investing strategically all along the chain from mine to meter" economist.com/briefing/2020/… Image
Read 33 tweets

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