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Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
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16 Jan, 4 tweets, 3 min read
Yesterday the world recorded 812,212 new cases and 14,780 new deaths. Both are rapidly increasing

Global deaths surpassed 2 million.
Greece has significant improvement in both cases and deaths:

-Daily cases are down from 2,600 to 600 (23% of peak)
-Daily deaths are down from 100 to 50 (50% of peak)

Current lockdown began in early November.
Today Greece extended night curfew, domestic travel restrictions, and stay-at-home order BUT stores & malls open starting Monday. Such soft lockdown is a disaster, see California

Use Green Zone Exit: Identify no transmission areas, protect and open

apnews.com/article/busine…
US CDC raises alarm over new more contagious variants taking hold. US identified 88 cases of highly transmissible UK variant.

Act fast to get ahead of it.

cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/7…

Yesterday US reported 235,561 new cases, 3929 deaths.

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More from @yaneerbaryam

Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
17 Jan
I drafted my thoughts about a #CovidZero speech for @JoeBiden, can anyone help with this?

#DraftBidenSpeech

My fellow Americans

1/
There is nothing we can’t do together. Today I am presenting to you a science-based plan to eliminate the coronavirus from the United States. We can meet this challenge as we have met challenges before.

2/
We are not only facing the original coronavirus, we are facing new faster transmitting and potentially vaccination evading mutants. Some of them are already here, some may be here soon, or start here. We have to stop accepting defeat and get ahead of the virus and stop it.

3/
Read 11 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
17 Jan
Ireland reports significant reduction in daily cases. Yesterday 3,491, down from peak near 8,000.

Test positivity is high but declined from 25% to 20% in past week.

(See also earlier tweet on UK planned travel restrictions) ImageImage
Yesterday US State Dept warned U.S. citizens in countries “where adequate COVID-19  testing is not available or  may not be able to satisfy the  requirements, should depart immediately  or prepare to be unable to return to the US…”

sv.usembassy.gov/health-alert-d…
Mexico continues to see increasing daily cases and deaths and medical system overcapacity especially in Mexico City.

Test positivity since September is very high near 45%.

reuters.com/article/us-hea… ImageImageImage
Read 5 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
16 Jan
In Europe, schools are closing as studies show schoolchildren can play a significant role in spreading infections

1/

wsj.com/articles/europ…
As U.S. authorities debate whether to keep schools open, a consensus is emerging in Europe that children are a considerable factor in the spread of Covid-19—and more countries are shutting schools for the first time since the spring.

2/
Closures have been announced recently in the U.K., Germany, Ireland, Austria, Denmark and the Netherlands on concerns about a more infectious variant of the virus first detected in the U.K. and rising case counts despite lockdowns.

3/
Read 17 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
16 Jan
Vaccination program not working well?

Solution:

Vaccination seems complex but it is large scale: Many of the same action

Complexity science says medical institutions are not efficient at vaccination. They are organized for the complex task of treating individual patients.

1/
Solution? Retail — pharmacies. They have the right Infrastructure, people, distribution, process, locations,

Million per day? No problem. CVS alone can do it:

2/
See my published analyses:

Yaneer Bar-Yam, Improving the effectiveness of health care and public health: A multi-scale complex systems analysis, American Journal of Public Health 96(3): 459-466 (2006).

3/
 ajph.aphapublications.org/doi/10.2105/AJ…
also at
necsi.edu/improving-the-… Image
Read 7 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
16 Jan
Over 700 participants + livestream to social media for UK ZeroCOVID meeting now

zerocovid.uk/2020/12/19/con… Image
Michael Baker from NZ talks about Strategic choices in pandemic response

"The big benefit of an elmination strategy is returnnig to normal in 2-3 months" Image
'An elmination strategy is very simple...' Image
Read 8 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
15 Jan
India continues to see significant progress toward containment:

-Daily cases down from 100k to 17k
-Daily deaths down from 1,100 to 200
-Test positivity down from 12% to 2%
Nearly every region is seeing improvement, many of which have very large populations.

Uttar Pradesh has a population of ~200 million, yet they are currently reporting only ~600 cases per day.

Policy details: ndtv.com/india-news/ind…

See more:
endcoronavirus.org/india-states-ut
Japan begins to see improvements in daily cases. Yesterday the Prime Minister announced that it will expand its State of Emergency declaration to now include 11 prefectures, and will ban all foreign nationals from entering the country.

cnn.com/2021/01/13/asi…
Read 4 tweets

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