Ankit Panda Profile picture
19 Jan, 20 tweets, 6 min read
NASIC's quadrennial ballistic and cruise missile threat report is out. media.defense.gov/2021/Jan/11/20…
Come on, NASIC. KN14 is not Hwasong-14.
If DF-41 is no longer CSS-X-20 (the 'X' implying developmental) then this sentence doesn't really make sense. Is the DF-41 past the development phase or not?
DF-17's WSSIC designator is finally public.
Still no formal mod designator for the DF-26 ASBM (continues to be described as a "variant"). I suspect this has to do with warhead interchangeability (which creates no physically distinguishing features on the launchers themselves).
Pukguksong-2, Hwasong-12, Hwasong-14, Hwasong-15, and Avangard.
Sign of the times: ALBMs get a shoutout.
"Nearly all of our adversaries are concerned with US missile defenses and have devised various methods to complicate missile defense operations."
NASIC report doesn't reflect the Nasr's 10 km range extension (per Pakistani sources, it's now a 70 km-range system).
Full Hwasong-12 testing history (including the 3 failed April 2017 tests).
This is interesting: first USG scale diagram of Pakistan's MIRVed Ababeel I recall seeing. Khorramshahr is also shown as significantly larger than the Musudan here.
DF-17 is described as a medium-range HGV, but its maximum range is UNK (unknown).
Khorramshahr ranges still at 2,000 km, per NASIC.
In case anyone is looking for yet another official USG publication saying Hwasong-14 and Hwasong-15 are capable of ranging the US.
Agni VI gets a mention in the NASIC report.
Dhanush, the world's sole nuclear-capable ShLBM, gets a shoutout again.
Interesting to see the Pukguksong-3 featured with a "UNK" for "warheads per missile."
Section of cruise missiles seems pretty pared-down. Was hoping for an update on Babur-3, but ... nothing on any countries apart from Russia/China/Iran. (Nothing on North Korea's KN19, for instance.)
Reiteration of previously known assessments of PLARF force structure here. "More than 200" SRBM launchers; "Approximately 350" MRBM/IRBM launchers. With DoD's 2020 China mil power report estimating 200 DF-26 launchers, this is to be expected.
Agni IV and Agni V still not deployed (which we know from press reports). Agni V still classified as an IRBM and not an ICBM per NASIC.

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More from @nktpnd

20 Jan
This doesn't get said enough. Everything can't matter equally and we should be creating incentives for local partners to step up; don't ignore the IOR, but recognize that it's not the fulcrum for US interests in Asia.
This was gnawing at me during the whole First Fleet trial balloon. Resources are already thin and overstretched; over-emphasizing the IOR is a setup for failure. India and Australia should be taking the lead.
Along these lines, I've admired the clarity in some Indian strategic documents (like the Maritime Security Strategy), which notes clear "primary" and "secondary" areas of interest for New Delhi in Indo-Pacific. It's okay to say certain things matter less than others.
Read 4 tweets
20 Jan
There's a big error in this document pertaining to North Korea's ICBMs that I think is worth digging into. It's disappointing for an IC product.
The document notes that "North Korea debuted the Hwasong-14 ICBM in an October 2015 parade." (USIC calls the October 2015 ICBM mockups the KN14, but this designator system is not used in the NASIC report.) Image
Page 28 of the NASIC report then includes this photograph, from North Korea's July 4, 2017, launch of an *actual* Hwasong-14 ICBM (KN20). The caption notes it's a "modified Hwasong-14." Image
Read 15 tweets
19 Jan
Austin takes on the civ-mil issues up front. Emphasizes that USD(P) (@ColinKahl) will be included in high-level decision-making.
Austin pledges to "stamp our sexual assault" and "to rid our ranks of racists and extremists."
"While I did not seek this job, I consider it an honor," Austin says. "I will uphold the principle of civilian control of the military as intended."
Read 9 tweets
19 Jan
Yes. And note that it comes on the same day Pompeo swipes at "multiculturalism." Hard for me to take the concerns of people who wouldn't want a practicing Muslim Uyghur family for neighbors seriously.
Calling what's happening in Xinjiang a genocide is warranted by the facts. It should have happened earlier.
And this is not about boxing in the incoming Biden team. Because they agree.
Read 4 tweets
15 Jan
First high resolution shots from #NorthKorea’s latest military parade.
One more of the new SRBM.
And, for convenience, a few close-ups of the new SLBM (Pukguksong-5) and the new unnamed solid-fuel SRBM.
Read 6 tweets
14 Jan
Well. There we go. #NorthKorea
Pukguksong-5?
New short-range solid fuel missiles.
Read 18 tweets

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