While the Biden covid plan is solid, it isn't nearly aggressive enough. We need to vaccinate ≥2.5 million people/d, distribute medical quality masks & rapid home tests to every household. In the meantime, good advice on masking here nytimes.com/2021/01/21/wel… 😷
1. A year ago the first person with asymptomatic covid was documented. My colleague @danieloran culled the data from 61 studies, 1.8 million people to determine how often this occurs. Just published @AnnalsofIM acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M2…
2. First a definition:
"The asymptomatic fraction of infection is the proportion of infected persons who never develop, perceive, and report symptoms"
In contrast to "presymptomatic" individuals who ultimately develop symptoms.
Both groups can transmit infections.
3. Here are the 14 longitudinal studies where symptom status was assessed over time
What is we were immunoassay-guided for who to give vaccines, whether the vaccine was effective, when 1 dose was enough?
Just now, 10 days after my 2nd dose vaccine, I had a quantitative multiplex immune response panel, via finger stick, taking <15 mins, watched in real-time 1/
I'll go through the steps but the bottom line is that I fortunately had very high levels of IgG to #SARSCoV2 RBD (receptor binding domain), the S1 of there spike protein and the S2 portion of the spike protein 2/
Steps 1. My finger stick blood into a capillary tube 2. Put on a dedicated, reusable chip 3. Put into the machine 4. Assays quickly running /3
1. If you thought yesterday's more than 4,400 deaths will be the worst of the American pandemic, or the previous >300,000 cases in a day, you're not paying attention.
We're already approaching 1% B.1.1.7 strain blog.helix.com/b117-variant-u…
2. This strain's destiny is to become dominant here in the weeks ahead. That mean's going vertical. Look at Ireland with >40% B.1.1.7
3. We're not doing the vital things we need to do to go to full prevent mode
Why it is time (never too late) to get super-serious 1. Holiday surge after holiday surge is small potatoes compared with a superspreader strain.
B.1.1.7 is here, <1%, but will be dominant in the weeks ahead
It is a strain, by definition: jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/…
2. The "superspreader" strains B.1.1.7 and 501Y.V2
Because they are more infectious (X%, but much more than D614G ,which had only a modest transmission ⬆️)
More people will get sick
More people will get hospitalized
More people will get #LongCovid
More people will die
3. Over the next several weeks, these new strains will become the dominant ones in the United States, just as they have in the UK and other countries. Exponential spread. Why we need to contain the virus and vaccinate 24/7 like there's no tomorrow.
Eddie's Jan 10th tweet that will go down in history since the virus sequence led to the design of mRNA vaccines 2 days later /2
Prof Holmes has been studying viruses for 30 years, in recent years a lot of metagenomic sequencing, the technique used to identify #SARSCoV2, and a major collaboration with Prof Zhang in Shanghai time.com/collection/100… /3
2. The @ScienceMagazine paper in 2013 that was, in retrospect, a frontrunner for coronaviruses and #SARSCoV2 sharing the property of membrane fusion and the need to stabilized the fusion protein to get effective vaccines science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/34…