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25 Jan, 5 tweets, 1 min read
For everyone asking, current positioning:

Cash 18.4%
SNAP 27.1%
GME 12.0%
PDD 8.2%
SNAP Calls 7.2%
SFIX 6.5%
DIS 6.2%
SQ 5.9%
TWLO 4.7%
UBER 2.0%
SHOP 1.9%

Sold all my GME calls on the 22nd. Dumb luck easing into the stock on the 11th + 12th. Going to start trimming it today.
I also took 2x profits off the table on the FUBO puts, sold the rest at a loss a week later. This is why I very rarely short 😂
Trimming GME because we're nearing $10b in EV, which I thought was the low probability bull case by end of 2021
stock up another 81% today as of right now... just sold down to a 2% position and going to ease back in if it ever pulls back.
now at

Cash 32.0%
SNAP 26.2%
PDD 8.2%
SNAP Calls 6.7%
SFIX 6.4%
DIS 6.0%
SQ 5.7%
TWLO 4.6%
SHOP 1.9%
UBER 1.9%
GME 0.4%

really thought I had a nice long-term hold with GME 😂

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More from @TurnerNovak

Turner Novak Profile picture
16 Nov 20
Pinduoduo recently launched Duo Duo Maicai, which lets customers pick-up online orders from local shops. It was all analysts talked about on its Q3 earnings call last week and its stock jumped 30% the following two days.

Quick thread:
A pick-up ecommerce model pools multiple last mile delivery legs into one trip. 20 orders becomes just one delivery.

This lowers logistics costs significantly, which unlocks ecommerce for lower priced products, new behaviors, and makes it more accessible for low income consumers
A pick-up model also drives foot traffic to local shops. It's not a stretch to think one day we'll will bid on ecommerce pick-up traffic like digital ads.

An ad network like Pinduoduo's spanning manufacturers, consumer app, and in-person trips will likely be very, very valuable.
Read 6 tweets
Turner Novak Profile picture
22 Aug 20
Stitch Fix is likely a $100b company within 10 years. Quick thread:
Stitch Fix owns a direct channel to recommend and ship products to 3.5m users (growing 20%/yr). Many are caught up in Pinduoduo’s "social commerce" model, but the real beauty is its ability to directly influence demand and thus optimize its operations and supply chain accordingly
Due to its understanding of exactly what customers want (aka what they will purchase) and direct influence over customer demand, Stitch Fix can essentially sell whatever products are best for its business*

*caveat that this should always align with what’s best for the customer
Read 13 tweets
Turner Novak Profile picture
22 Jul 20
Snap Q2 earnings:

- 239m DAUs, up 10m in Q2 (4% QoQ, 18% YoY)
- $1.9b TTM revenue, Q2 up 17% YoY (32% thru July 19th)
- Implied 4.7b snaps sent per day, 20 per user (highest ever, growing 2x faster than DAUs)
- Time watching Snap Shows and AR playtime growing 2x faster than rev
Snap Q2 usage metrics:

- DAU’s open 30x per day (up from 25 in Q3 ‘18)
- DAU growth smooth every month in Q2
- Android rebuild in 2019 drove 37% You RoW DAU growth
- India users up 100% YoY
- Thinks Snapchat's user opportunity is 2b (at 239m DAU's today)
Snap Q2 product reach:

Users engaging with AR: 188m DAU’s
Discover: 100m MAU’s (probably much higher)
Snap Map: 200m MAU's
Snap Games: 100m unique players
Snap Kit: 150m MAU's
Read 16 tweets
Turner Novak Profile picture
20 Jul 20
The first batch of Snap Minis launched today. This is an early step in Snap's app ecosystem that will help almost every company that uses the internet to acquire and retain customers.

Quick thread:

mashable.com/article/snap-m…
If you're unfamiliar, Snapchat is used by over 88 million people in North America per day. The total time spent in the app by all Snapchat users in the US is nearly identical to Instagram.

👀The US is where IG, valued at ~$200 billion, makes most of its money
Initially, Snap Minis are access through the chat as seen in these pics ImageImageImageImage
Read 9 tweets
Turner Novak Profile picture
23 Jun 20
I actively started writing on Substack in May and this week I'll cross 3,000 subscribers. Here's an update on:

- the strategy I used to break into VC
- what I’ve learned so far
- how I’m thinking about writing and investing moving forward
Living in Michigan, Twitter has been essential. The playbook I initially used was:

- tweet and go deep on differentiated insights
- respond to everyone
- reach out to people with <10k followers I thought were undervalued
- hop on too many last minute flights
I didn't have the traditional VC background. I grew up going to food banks, went to a school no one's heard of, never worked in tech, and I had $0 to angel invest.

To build a track record, I made two fantasy VC portfolio's. h/t @jtriest for the idea!

turner.substack.com/p/turners-fant…
Read 11 tweets
Turner Novak Profile picture
27 May 20
A TikTok clone called Zynn suddenly appeared at the top of the US App Store today.

It looks like a giant referral pyramid scheme, but also may be getting bankrolled by one of TikTok's biggest rivals in China, which just raised $2 billion from one of its OTHER rivals.
Zynn, which just released on Android yesterday, has been climbing the iOS charts for two weeks. It just hit #1 this morning.
The UI is essentially a dumbed down TikTok.

It looks like they ripped most of the initial videos too - most accounts are not from one creator, but related to a specific theme. The dates are also weird, some videos have been around since Feb/March.
Read 14 tweets

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