“Turkey has always done its own thing: “rejection of subjugation to the West has long been the bedrock of Turkish politics, whether its leadership was religious or secular, leftist or rightwing.”
https://twitter.com/marcpierini1/status/1354502468760174596
“🇹🇷launched a brisk charm offensive with the EU and the new 🇺🇸president. A case in point was Erdoğan’s speech on 22.11.2020, in which he said, “We see ourselves as an inseparable part of 🇪🇺. We have always been the strongest member of Western Alliances, NATO in particular.”
“🇹🇷leadership is prone to repeatedly adjusting its foreign policy narratives to suit domestic political requirements. This creates massive foreign policy uncertainty for Ankara’s 🇪🇺 and 🇺🇸partners because🇹🇷 simultaneously plays friend and foe or acts both with and against NATO.”
“On the political side, Turkey’s partners will have to assess the strategic risk of a leadership that routinely uses anti-Western, conspiracy-based, nationalist narratives while ignoring several of its international commitments.”
“In this context, the continued development of 🇹🇷military industry under current programs is not necessarily perceived as an asset for NATO. Due to the constant bargaining between 🇹🇷&🇷🇺 multiple fronts,🇹🇷behavior in case of potential tensions between 🇷🇺 & NATO in, say the Baltics
🇺🇦or the ⚫️ Sea has inevitably become a factor of uncertainty. 🇹🇷 recent proclamations of its strong bonds with NATO are not enough to dispel this uncertainty, especially in circumstances in which 🇷🇺can impose political & economic constraints or inflict military damage on 🇹🇷
1️⃣🇺🇸& 🇪🇺 should send coordinated signals that disruptive unilateral decisions and hostile narratives are no longer tolerated. This would at least avoid Ankara playing its allies off against one another.”
2️⃣🇪🇺and 🇺🇸should devise measures to minimize the adverse impact of 🇹🇷 deployment of non-NATO assets & avoid degradation of the alliances strength vis-à-vis 🇷🇺
Such measures could at best include the complete removal of the S400 missiles, otherwise, contingency procedures in NATO.
Such measures could at best include the complete removal of the S400 missiles, otherwise, contingency procedures in NATO.
3️⃣Atlantic partners should limit exports of military components to 🇹🇷if 🇹🇷 disruptive policies remain unchanged, its relations with 🇷🇺are not clarify & 🇺🇸🇪🇺calls for🗣go unheeded. Such a move would clarify that critical 🇪🇺🇺🇸supplies can’t be used to increase sec risks for allies
4️⃣ EU and the United States should sanction the Turkish individuals most involved in dismantling the rule of law and interfering with the domestic politics of Western countries. This would be consistent with Turkey’s commitments under the NATO and Council of Europe charters.
5️⃣🇪🇺 should delay the introduction of a new cooperation framework until 🇹🇷makes a measurable return to a rule-of-law status that corresponds to 🇹🇷 commitments as a member of the EUCO and a partner of the 🇪🇺
Preparatory work should take into account the newly signed 👇👆
Preparatory work should take into account the newly signed 👇👆
🇪🇺🇬🇧Trade and Cooperation Agreement, which is now the most advanced treaty between the 🇪🇺and a third country. 🇪🇺should also opt out of the idea of an EastMed conference, which would give 🇹🇷de facto recognition of 🇹🇷occupied Northern🇨🇾
6️⃣🇪🇺should maintain tangible offers of negotiation on maritime boundaries and of support for 🇸🇾refugees at the 🇹🇷🇸🇾border and in🇹🇷Offers, should come with precise time frames and methodologies, would demonstrate that mutually beneficial 🤝is possible when 👺behavior subsides.
@threadreaderapp please unroll @Unrollme
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