Thread by @BrianFeroldi

1/ My Q4 2020 $TSLA earnings notes:

Revenue +46% to $10.74 billion
Wall Street $10.38 billion - BEAT ✅

GAAP Net income +157% to $270 million
Non-GAAP net income +134% to $903 million

EPS $0.80
Wall Street $1.03 - MISS🛑

Want more details? ⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️

2/ Operations

✅500k vehicles delivered in 2020
✅ Supercharge stations +41%
✅ Supercharge connectors +45%
✅ Service locations +21%
✅ Mobile fleet +11%

3/ Operations

✅Model 3/Y Shanghai
✅ Model S/X Refresh
✅ Solar deployed +59%
✅ Storage deployed +199%

Lots of products/factories in development

4/ Global market share ⏫

5/ Solar & Storage growing

Elon: Had to devote whole company to Model 3 launch. Putting a lot of attention on solar now.

6/ Full Self Driving progress

7/ Balance Sheet

✅$19.4 billion in cash

⬆️ $5 billion share offering ($632 share price avg)
⬆️ $1.9 billion in Q4 FCF
⬇️ $2 billion convertible debt repayment

8/ Automotive gross margin

✅Up 157 bps
⬆️ Regulatory credits +202% (big help)
⬇️ Average selling price
⬇️ New product launches
⬇️ S/X sales due to refresh (higher margin)
⬇️ SBC due to share runup increase in COGS

Total gross margin
✅Up 39 bps
⬇️ Energy biz neg GM

9/ Outlook

✅50%+ volume increase
(implies at least 750k cars in 2021)
✅ Operating margin expansion (was 6.3% in 2020)

10/ @elonmusk on current $TSLA valuation

(highlighted text should be "billion" not "million")

11/ @elonmusk still thinks $TSLA will be big in solar

12/ Full Self Driving subscription product on the way

Could do WONDERS for take-rate and gross margin!

13/ $TSLA open to selling software to other companies

Again, could be GREAT for gross margins!

14/ Why Telsa Semi hasn't been a priority

15/ Model S / X refresh look great

Model S Plaid will be crazy fast

Slow ramp in Q1 2021

Pickup by Q2 2021

Raised price $10,000 -- should help gross margin!

16/ $TSLA has grown to become one of my largest holdings

I still think there's room for this mega-giant to run

The next 10 years will be incredible