South African trial of >4,000 participants
49.4% efficacy
Of 44 participants with infection events, sequencing of their virus showed B.1.351 in 25 samples
@novavax slide via @kakape shows differences in participants with or without HIV and different denominator for sequencing than above.
--25/27 infection events were B.1.351
To emphasize, there were mixed data regarding immune escape for B.1.351, and vaccine "resistance" is not all or none. That there is relative (some) loss of vaccine protection reinforces the in vitro studies suggesting E484K and other mutation's escape potential
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Back in September, we wrote a @nytopinion on the need to focus on severe infection events prevented by Covid-19 vaccines nytimes.com/2020/09/22/opi…
Yesterday JNJ presented their Phase 3 data stressing that benefit. I spoke w/ them today & have much more confidence that it's real /1
My first question is why didn't they give actual data points and confidence intervals?
Answer: The FDA guided them not to do that. Interesting that the other companies (@pfizer, @moderna_tx, @Novavax) did provide their data with their press releases /2
Then we reviewed the outstanding finding in their data set.
There were approximately 40-60 hospitalizations and deaths in the whole trial. All in the placebo group. Period. Even those occurring in South Africa. That is *great news* /3
Big news: The JNJ vaccine results of 44,000 Phase 3 trial, a single dose. Overall 66% efficacy, with the contrast of 72% in US but 57% in South Africa, confirming immune escape/resistance of B.1.351 variant seen by Novavax
This news is certainly welcome, clearly fulfills FDA threshold and adds to the vaccine tool chest. It is a clear drop down from the 2-dose mRNA efficacy statnews.com/2021/01/29/jj-…@matthewherper@statnews
I have to revise the #SARSCoV2 Variant table with latest information from past 12 hours
1. A year ago the first person with asymptomatic covid was documented. My colleague @danieloran culled the data from 61 studies, 1.8 million people to determine how often this occurs. Just published @AnnalsofIM acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M2…
2. First a definition:
"The asymptomatic fraction of infection is the proportion of infected persons who never develop, perceive, and report symptoms"
In contrast to "presymptomatic" individuals who ultimately develop symptoms.
Both groups can transmit infections.
3. Here are the 14 longitudinal studies where symptom status was assessed over time
While the Biden covid plan is solid, it isn't nearly aggressive enough. We need to vaccinate ≥2.5 million people/d, distribute medical quality masks & rapid home tests to every household. In the meantime, good advice on masking here nytimes.com/2021/01/21/wel… 😷
What is we were immunoassay-guided for who to give vaccines, whether the vaccine was effective, when 1 dose was enough?
Just now, 10 days after my 2nd dose vaccine, I had a quantitative multiplex immune response panel, via finger stick, taking <15 mins, watched in real-time 1/
I'll go through the steps but the bottom line is that I fortunately had very high levels of IgG to #SARSCoV2 RBD (receptor binding domain), the S1 of there spike protein and the S2 portion of the spike protein 2/
Steps 1. My finger stick blood into a capillary tube 2. Put on a dedicated, reusable chip 3. Put into the machine 4. Assays quickly running /3
1. If you thought yesterday's more than 4,400 deaths will be the worst of the American pandemic, or the previous >300,000 cases in a day, you're not paying attention.
We're already approaching 1% B.1.1.7 strain blog.helix.com/b117-variant-u…
2. This strain's destiny is to become dominant here in the weeks ahead. That mean's going vertical. Look at Ireland with >40% B.1.1.7
3. We're not doing the vital things we need to do to go to full prevent mode