Thread by @MENASTREAM

#Sahel: Here’s a quick roundup of ISGS’s comeback in Al-Naba #271, no big surprises, the group claimed 9 operations over a 2-month period (or 9 weeks).

The primary focus is its Al-Qaeda counterpart #JNIM, accounting for 2/3 of the modest number of operations claimed, 2 out of 6 operations purportedly targeting JNIM were by local sources reported as civilian targeting, namely in N’Tillit (Oussadia) and Menaka (Inekar Ouest)

As usual, the claimed operations, only account for a fraction of the number of attacks conducted by the group, and as expected it did not claim the massacres in Tchomabangou and Zaroumadarey

IS cited ‘field conditions’ as explanation for the hiatus in public messaging on the part of ISGS, it’s more the rule than the exception that it pops up every 2nd month in Al-Naba. However, the claims were fairly accurate, minor date errors and fatalities not overly exaggerated

Clearly, ISGS is not in attack-mode, the group has been hit hard throughout 2020 after being declared France’s “Enemy no. 1”, but since late October the pendulum turned and swang in the direction of JNIM which sort of regained the title as "the most dangerous enemy"

Meanwhile, ISGS remains in rebuild-mode, and highly active in terms of excessive zakat collection, cattle rustling, and pillaging

The group is increasingly claiming attacks in central Mali’s interior, still few and small-scale, for which it uses the generic “Macina region" as georeference, a way of saying “we’re still here” without providing too much detail and draw unwanted attention

The group’s presence in central Mali sharply declined and became negligible since the March-April 2020 showdown when JNIM largely pushed it out from the Inner Delta

Anyhow it maintains a few smaller pockets such as near Dialloube and in the Kounari which the aforementioned claims also reflect. The latest series of claimed operations is portioned out across Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, consistent with its attack profile