Thread by @TUmarov

China’s strategy vis-à-vis Central Asia’s elites is undergoing an under-appreciated change. Beijing is shifting from working exclusively w/ the region’s incumbent leaders to support for pro🇨🇳 politicians & even making efforts to bring them to power.
THREAD
carnegie.ru/commentary/837…

1/18: In October 2020, Kyrgyz President Sooronbay Jeenbekov was ousted and replaced by Sadyr Japarov, who managed to seize power, schedule elections & become the 6th president of Kyrgyzstan this month. carnegie.ru/commentary/830…

2/ This eyebrow-raising quick jump to the presidency incited many questions from the public. Read @joannalillis piece to learn why he's popular:
economist.com/asia/2021/01/1…

But how did a former convicted criminal muster enough resources to get elected? One of the factors could be 🇨🇳

3/ Japarov initially was associated w/ 🇨🇳 because of his family history. His father was born, raised, and educated in Xinjiang. The family returned to Soviet Kyrgyzstan in 1962, where Japarov was born 6 years later. See @VeneraSagyn remarks at @FPRI event:

4/18: Based on this fact, opponents of Japarov began to spread conspiracy theories that he had been recruited by the Chinese intelligence. "A man who represents the interests of China ... today is running for president," his opponent Kanat Isayev said:

5/18: Conspiracies aside, throughout his career Japarov has been long interacting & cooperating with China in both politics & business.

6/18: In 2007, when Japarov was a member of the Kyrgyz parliament, his brother won a public tender & acquired 71% of Jyrgalan mine for $320K (the price was obviously understated). Soon he handed the mine over to 🇨🇳 Chinese investors. vesti.kg/politika/item/…

7/18: In 2012 there was a large fire at the mine. The media wrote that the Chinese wanted Japarov to pay $7 mln for the damage. Instead of money, he offered to lobby the idea of taking Kumtor (the largest gold mine in the region) away from a 🇨🇦 company: gezitter.org/ushaktar/86322…

8/18: Today Japarov has forgotten about Kumtor. Instead, he considers the possibility of giving up a part of Jetim-Too iron ore deposit to 🇨🇳 in order to reduce external debt. According to Kyrgyz lawmaker @bekeshev, by 2020 🇰🇬 debt to 🇨🇳 exceeded $2.2 bln:

https://twitter.com/TUmarov/status/1326645157899407366

9/18: Interestingly Japarov's close associate, whom he publicly called a friend, a 🇰🇬 lawmaker Adil Zhunus uulu, is also famous for ideas to sell key 🇰🇬 assets to 🇨🇳, e.g. in 2018 he proposed to transfer the national airline Air Kyrgyzstan to 🇨🇳 investors: stanradar.com/news/full/3130…

10/18: What is more interesting is Adil Zhunus uulu's bio. He was born & lived in 🇨🇳. In 2001 he received 🇰🇬 citizenship & was doing business in mining as well as Japarov. In 2015, got elected to parliament through Japarov's Ata Zhurt party & became the 1st 🇰🇬 lawmaker born in 🇨🇳

11/18: Although Adil Zhunus is a public official he de-facto owns several firms. Here on a map is a building that these companies own. Guess where Sadir Japarov's campaign headquarters during the election was located?

Yes, the answer is 100 Ibraimov Street, Bishkek.

12/18: An election campaign is a pricey event. But even though Japarov just came out of prison had a lot of money in his campaign budget. In fact, he spent more than 45 mln Kyrgyz soms (~$560K, which is more than the other 17 candidates combined) for the election campaign.

13/18: Where did he get the money? There is direct evidence that Japarov's election campaign was at least partially funded by the Chinese (even though it's illegal). He received at least 1mln Kyrgyz soms from the Hua-Er company owned by a Chinese national Huang Jianhong. @_24_kg

14/18: Even the buses that brought Japarov's supporters to rallies belong to the company that is owned by Tohutibubi Ouerhalik who was born in Xinjiang & got Kyrgyz citizenship only in 2018: cbd.minjust.gov.kg/act/view/ru-ru…

Photo: @_24_kg

15/18: If these events are not purely coincidental and China did assist Japarov in taking power, it means Beijing is starting to move beyond economic inroads in the region and starts to become a player in local politics. This is an important milestone.

16/18: In an interview to @FT's @HenryJFoy Japarov said that there are signs that China and Russia compete for assets and influence in Central Asian countries such as Kyrgyzstan, but added that rivalry does not play a huge role. ft.com/content/0c43bf…

Isn't it though?

17/18: 🇨🇳🇷🇺 This new dynamic is shaking the foundation of the power balance between Russia and China in Central Asia. What should Moscow do?

My answer is here:
carnegie.ru/commentary/837…

18/18: This article is a part of @CarnegieRussia's #PaxSinica project, for more materials about China's growing might in Eurasia visit
carnegie.ru/specialproject…