Thread by @politicalham

1/The Allan inquiry into foreign funding of anti-Alberta energy campaigns gets a third extension. Report is now due May 31.

For anyone who isn't familiar with my 2019 deep dive on Krause:

energi.media/deep-dives/deb…

2/Why another extension?

"Requests for extensions to the original schedules of public inquiries, regardless of the mandate, are not unusual," says Steve Allan.

The Commissioner makes it sound like a great deal of work has been done.

Highly unlikely.

3/The "foreign funding" is $40 million over roughly 10 years (2008 to 2018) from US charities to the Tar Sands Campaign, which had a shifting "membership" of 50 to 100+ Canadian ENGOs, First Nations, and communities.

It appears Greenpeace got the most: ~$250,000/yr.

4/There was a bit more money per year earlier in the campaign as it ramped up.

Then, in Nov. 2015 the Notley govt released the Climate Leadership Plan.

Alberta suddenly had credible climate policy, which is what the US foundations wanted.

5/The $ slowed to a trickle. $1 million per year for another year or two, then far less thereafter.

Greenpeace and a few other ENGOs provided me with estimates of their TSC funding pre and post-Climate Leadership Plan. It's in the deep dive.

6/What is ignored is that the great majority of TSC funding came from Canadians.

Seriously, what does $4 million a year buy when it's spread between 50 to 100+ organizations?

My best guess is that Canadians funded ~90% of the anti-oil sands campaigns since 2008.

7/But here's the real question: So what?

There's nothing illegal about ENGOs etc. opposing oil/gas development and pipelines.

Harper had the CRA audit many of the ENGOs, looking for violations of the funding rules, and those investigations came up empty.

Bupkus.

8/Here's the 2nd most important question: What did the Tar Sands Campaign actually accomplish?

Certainly tarnished the oil sands' international reputation.

But, so what?

The oil sands producers and CAPP have tens of millions to spend defending their reputation.

9/The truth is that CAPP et al REFUSED to engage in a PR battle with the Tar Sands Campaigns and ENGOs.

CAPP is on record saying that its members won't spend an extra nickel countering the ENGO narratives.

So, basically, Big Oil was brought low by its own hubris.

10/Part 2 of the second most important question: Did the Tar Sands Campaign actually stop any pipeline projects?

IMO, not a one.

This is the fundamental weakness of the foreign-funded activist narrative. If there is no straight line from funding to cancelled pipelines...

11/...then where's the beef? Who cares?

Only 2 pipeline projects were cancelled.

1) Trudeau nixed Northern Gateway, which was never going to survive legal challenges from BC First Nations

2) Energy East was withdrawn b/c Trump revived Keystone XL.

12/Trudeau approved Trans Mountain Expansion (525k b/d) and Line 3 replacement (370k b/d) and allowed the KXL (830k b/d) approval to stand.

That's close to 2 million b/d of new pipeline capacity.

Please explain to me how the Tar Sands Campaign mortally wounded the oil sands.

13/TSC's biggest success is the one ignored by the conspiracists: persuading the Trudeau Liberals that the National Energy Board was "broken," which arguably led to Bill C-69.

It's not that simple, but at least there you can make a credible case for influence by TSC.

14/To sum up, US funding for anti-oil sands campaign has been less than $1 million/yr, almost 2 million b/d of new pipelines were approved, and (almost forgot) oil sands production grew by over 1.5 million b/d.

TSC is arguably the less successful anti-oil campaign in history.

15/So what the hell is the Kenney govt up to?

The headline on my 2018 column sums it up: weaponizing Krause's foreign-funded activist narrative to defeat the NDP and "fight back" against the Trudeau Liberals.
energi.media/markham-on-ene…

16/The Allan inquiry is part partisan political strategy and part blind zealotry by the oil industry and its political supporters.

The inquiry is political theatre.

But Kenney, ever the true believer, miscalculated. IMO, he actually thought Krause was correct.

17/I made this argument many times over the past 3 years, but no one wanted to believe it when Kenney was the shiny new Alberta premier who had just won a huge majority in 2019.

After 21 months of rank incompetence, his blunder is now obvious, right?

18/What about Allan? Why did he agree to put his reputation on the line for Kenney?

IMO, Kenney hoodwinked him. He persuaded Allan that Krause's work was the tip of the iceberg, that there was plenty of evidence of a vast conspiracy holding back Alberta's O&G industry.

19/So, Allan and his inquiry went to work only to find there was no evidence of a vast conspiracy.

What evidence there was had already been uncovered by @Garossino and me in our reporting.

THAT is why there have been three extensions. THAT is why the inquiry...

20/...commissioned those awful "studies" by Cooper, Nemeth and the American outfit.

Allan is tap dancing as fast as he can to save his reputation.

Because when he finally releases his report, it will be obvious to everyone the foreign-funded activist narrative is baloney.

21/Postscript:

I've begun recontacting the ENGOs I interviewed to see if they have been contacted by the inquiry to testify or provide information.

Thus far, none have.

NONE.

22/This is from a Greenpeace email to me from last night:

"We have written them to them twice but they haven’t responded. We have never been contacted."

Watch my interview w/Tides Canada about how it wasn't contacted before being publicly slandered:

23/What does it say about the competence of the Allan inquiry that it doesn't even reply to correspondence from the biggest recipient of Tar Sands Campaign funding?

This is Orwellian shit, folks: A public inquiry that refuses to communicate with the orgs it's inquiring into.

24/Have I mentioned that the Allan inquiry refuses media interview requests?

And read this ruling from the inquiry Commissioner for why he refused Prof. @molszyns' application to submit Sandy's foundation finance article into evidence:

albertainquiry.ca/sites/default/…

25/Here's my Zoffee with @Garossino during which we discuss all these issues and more:

26/My interview with @molszyns about the public inquiry legal and administrative shenanigans:

27/My interview with @molszyns about the Cooper, Nemeth, etc studies and just how truly bizarre they are.