⚠️YOUNG ADULT BLACK- & HISPANIC-AMERICANS & COVID. Overall, elderly die more of #COVID19, but—

➡️But what if I told you—the relative risk of COVID death for:

Black vs Whites—

Hispanics vs Whites—

is actually *greater in young adults*?

➡️It’s true. 🧵
healthdata.org/acting-data/pr…
2) Look Black/Hispanic-Americans #COVID19 death vs non Hispanic White Americans by age:

📍HISPANICS:
Age 55-64: ~7x more than NHW

Age 45-54: ~10x

Age 35-44: ~11x

Age <35: ~7x

📍BLACK AMERICANS

Age 55-64: ~5x more than NHW

Age 45-54: ~6x

Age 35-44: ~8x

Age <35: ~7x
3) And which states are doing the worst in terms of Black-American / Hispanic-American versus non-Hispanic White disparity for #COVID19 mortality?

A lot of blue and red states. Some much much worse.
4) Meanwhile, here is how vaccination rates are going...
5) a large factor in the racial disparities is in healthcare and the higher risk occupations that minority groups have to more often endure.

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More from @DrEricDing

3 Feb
England 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 now has near total #B117 variant domination. It is now fully 97% of all #COVID19 cases in London. Total cases are down but B117 still up. Denmark 🇩🇰 also saw B117 fraction surge 70% increase per week after week even despite lockdown, total 🇩🇰 domination by end of Feb. Image
2) Denmark #B117. Total domination expected by Danish CDC by end of Feb.
Read 7 tweets
3 Feb
IRONY IS DELICIOUS—Former President Trump lost ground with every age group in 2020 election versus 2016, but had “greatest erosion with white voters, particularly white men”. Trump’s handling of #COVID19 played a key role in why voters did not back him. 🧵 nytimes.com/2021/02/02/us/…
2) The pollster and Mr. Trump’s former campaign manager, Brad Parscale, had urged Mr. Trump to take the virus more seriously earlier in 2020, and Mr. Fabrizio had pushed Mr. Trump to support some form of a national mask mandate. But Mr. Trump rejected the idea.
3) makes sense. We were warned about the risk of #COVID19 becoming a pandemic in January. Scientists knew and many sounded the alarm.

And @realDonaldTrump knew, but he decided to “play it down”. So many have died needlessly.

Read 4 tweets
2 Feb
NEW—A single dose of Oxford-AstraZeneca #COVID19 vaccine provided strong protection in trials after the first 22 days: 76% efficacy (days 22-90). Also, when 2nd shot were delayed by >3 months: ~82% efficacy for symptomatic disease. But poor efficacy for asymptomatic disease. 🧵 Image
2) And stronger effect for longer time gap was also supported by stronger neutralization in pseudovirus assays that showed improvements with longer gap. Thus, not a fluke. Longer time gap >12 weeks, the stronger vaccine effects. poseidon01.ssrn.com/delivery.php?I… Image
3) Visualized in specific days, it is apparent there is an overall rise in efficacy after 90 days, though it gets thin in the extreme tails.

But in panel C with the low 1st dose, standard 2nd dose, maybe efficacy does seemingly climb into the mid 90s% (exploratory analysis) Image
Read 5 tweets
2 Feb
BREAKING—analysis of Russian #SARSCoV2 vaccine’s phase 3 trial with ~ 20,000 participants finds that a 2-dose regimen has an efficacy of 91.6% against symptomatic #COVID19. No serious adverse events were deemed to be associated with vaccination. 100% efficacy for severe illness. Image
2) The benefits of the vaccine diverged from placebo around day ~18 after the first shot.

Estimated vaccine efficacy occurring at any time after dose 1 was 73·1% (95% CI 63·7–80·1). Notably, in vaccine group, most cases of #COVID19 occurred before dose 2
thelancet.com/journals/lance… Image
3) Notably, vaccine efficacy was 91·8% (67·1–98·3) in participants older than 60 years.

There were no cases (vaccine group) and 20 cases (placebo group) of moderate or severe COVID-19 confirmed at least 21 days after dose 1
Read 10 tweets
2 Feb
Coronavirus analogy for Starcraft...

Remember Terran versus Zerg battles?

Zerg evolve super fast & their swarms are unstoppable once they mutate/evolve and infect widely.

➡️Terrans can win only if stop Zerg early, or tech upgrade fast. Which means lockdown & vaccinate fast.
2) But Zerg always try to counter by exploiting the map by establishing more colonies because they can create hatcheries quickly. Zerg always have expansion advantage over Terran humans. And if Terran try to expand, Zerg simply mutate to more advanced species.
3) Terrans are great at bunkering and using siege tanks + turrets, but this defense strategy never works to win a direct Terran vs Zerg battle. Zerg swarms will simply always outnumber human Terran armies if we sit back complacently. Zergs will always bring Ultralisks.
Read 15 tweets
2 Feb
BREAKING—CDC released 1st month vaccine report. Just under 13 million vaccinated over 30 days, or just ~431k per day. Relative to US pop, blacks & Latinos are underrepresented, though partly to HCW & elderly.

➡️ We need to do better in month 2. #COVID19 cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/7… Image
2) this disparity is more stark considering who is actually dying of #COVID19
3) look at the vaccine disparity by zip code. We know the zip code disparities are related to income and race.
Read 4 tweets

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