And now for the bad news. *sigh*
It looks like #B117, the more transmissible variant first detected in England, has now picked up the E484K mutation as well. That is the one linked to evading SOME immunity in SAfrica and Brazil.
@_b_meyer "Preliminary information suggests more than one acquisition event.”
If this is true, it is one more sign that this mutation is a relatively easy way for the virus to acquire some advantage in populations with some immunity.
I worry that we will see this in many places with B117.
@_b_meyer And as @_b_meyer points out it may very well be that a mutation like N501Y makes it more likely for the virus to acquire this mutation because it almost “needs" it.
(Or as @K_G_Andersen would probably say: Maybe Nelly kinda seeks out the bad guys… )
@_b_meyer@K_G_Andersen This is a new finding, so as usual we will have to live with a lot of uncertainty for a while.
There are a TON of questions that we all have.
And there are a lot of already stressed and tired scientists who are working hard to get those answers.
We will see what this means.
@_b_meyer@K_G_Andersen But it sure seems like this virus is telling us again and again, that it will gladly take any opportunity we allow it of spreading and replicating to evolve and make our lives even harder.
It’s just that it is telling us this in As, Cs, Gs and Us - the only language it speaks...
COVAX facility just published a forecast of what country will receive how much of what #covid19 vaccine in the first half of this year.
Lots of caveats of course. This is mostly AZ vaccine, which does not have emergency use listing yet, for instance. gavi.org/sites/default/…
Big picture:
Countries can expect to receive vaccine to cover on average 3,3% of their population in first half of 2021, "enough to protect the most vulnerable groups such as health care workers”.
Here is “A” to give you an idea (SFP are self financing countries)
Most vaccine here is AstraZeneca’s:
240 million doses of AZ vaccine licensed to Serum Institute of India (SII)
96 million doses directly from AZ (this was supposed to be 153 million, but some shipments delayed to Q3)
„The development of the Sputnik V vaccine has been criticised for unseemly haste, corner cutting, and an absence of transparency. But the outcome reported here is clear and the scientific principle of vaccination is demonstrated ...“ thelancet.com/journals/lance…
Authors end that comment in Lancet by pointing that the result „means another vaccine can now join the fight to reduce the incidence of #COVID19“.
First results (yes, really!) on what #b117 + E484K might mean from @GuptaR_lab:
„Introduction of the E484K mutation in a B.1.1.7 background to reflect newly emerging viruses in the UK led to a more substantial loss of neutralizing activity by vaccine-elicited antibodies“
Quick explainer:
The researchers took blood from 23 people vaccinated with Pfizer vaccine and then checked how well it neutralized retroviruses that they had engineered to contain the spike protein of #b117 with or without E484K.
Preprint is here: citiid.cam.ac.uk/wp-content/upl…
Interpretation:
This is roughly what I expected given B.1.351 and P.1 data.
If you‘ve followed my reporting the last weeks you know that it is difficult to know whether/how much a drop in neutralization in the lab will translate into a drop in vaccine efficacy in the real world.
With all the breaking news on vaccines and variants I’ve barely had a chance to talk about this piece on microbes moving between humans and animals.
I think it’s important for the conversations we’re having around #sarscov2.
So, piece is here: sciencemag.org/news/2021/01/w…
And a thread
I’ve long been interested in the way infectious diseases affect wild animals and what we can learn about human disease from this.
So in 2019 I joined @Leendertz_Lab on a research trip to Taï National Forest in Cote d’Ivoire, where he has been studying this for 20 years.
@Leendertz_Lab The research station in Taï goes back to Christophe Boesch and Hedwige Boesch-Achermann who came to the forest in 1979 to study the chimpanzees. It took them years to habituate the animals (get them used to humans). Ever since then, researchers have been following them.
More vaccine news, this time from phase 3 trial of Johnson&Johnson:
According to the company, their vaccine based on an adenovirus was 66% effective at preventing moderate and severe #covid19, 28 days after vaccination.
Good news:
- Big study with 45,000 participants across multiple countries
-Vaccine was 85% effective in preventing severe disease overall
- all hospitalisations and deaths in placebo group
- efficacy against severe disease increased over time (no cases in vaccinees after day 49)
Most importantly:
This is a single-dose vaccine and only needs standard refrigeration.
That means of vaccines so far it is the easiest to distribute.
And plan is to produce one billion doses this year, so protection for one billion people hopefully.
Just listened to a fascinating webinar by @ShabirMadh presenting the results from Novavax trial in South Africa and UK.
So will turn this into a brief thread to give some context on what we know so far and what the trial results (probably) mean:
First of all, this vaccine uses a more traditional approach than the mRNA vaccines we have been talking about a lot: It essentially consists of particles studded with the crucial spike protein plus an adjuvant to induce a potent immune response.
The study: This was a phase 2 study with just over 4400 participants and initially designed to look at HIV- people only. @ShabirMadh says they had “ to really work hard to get Novavax and everyone else to agree to do a sample of HIV-infected individuals”, which is crucial in SA.