Thread by @kakape

COVAX facility just published a forecast of what country will receive how much of what #covid19 vaccine in the first half of this year.
Lots of caveats of course. This is mostly AZ vaccine, which does not have emergency use listing yet, for instance.
gavi.org/sites/default/…

Big picture:
Countries can expect to receive vaccine to cover on average 3,3% of their population in first half of 2021, "enough to protect the most vulnerable groups such as health care workers”.
Here is “A” to give you an idea (SFP are self financing countries)

Most vaccine here is AstraZeneca’s:
240 million doses of AZ vaccine licensed to Serum Institute of India (SII)
96 million doses directly from AZ (this was supposed to be 153 million, but some shipments delayed to Q3)

Also 1,2 million doses of Pfizer vaccine
Because of low number, says @GaviSeth, "as well as the complexity of the ultra cold chain equipment that is required to deploy, we've had to use a very specific methodology for determining distribution of these first vaccines."

@GaviSeth Allocation of the 1,2 million Pfizer doses took into account country readiness, but also prioritised countries that had not started any immunisations yet and countries where health care workers were exposed to high transmission, says @ann_lindstrand.

@GaviSeth @ann_lindstrand "Many of these doses will go to health workers in urban areas, who are at highest risk of exposure to #COVID19 infections”, says @unicefchief. Says work has begun for instance in Bosnia-Herzegovina, which will early recipient. First 2 of 8 refrigerators from Unicef have arrived.

@GaviSeth @ann_lindstrand @unicefchief "We are on the path to really start balancing out a global map, which so far has shown how many lower income countries are yet to start vaccinating a single person, while other, wealthier countries go ahead towards mass vaccination”, says @frekris of @CEPIvaccines.

@GaviSeth @ann_lindstrand @unicefchief @frekris @CEPIvaccines “We certainly still have a long way to go”, says @frekris. “We cannot afford to lose sight of the fact that this pandemic cannot be ended unless safe and effective vaccines are made made available to all."

@GaviSeth @ann_lindstrand @unicefchief @frekris @CEPIvaccines Immunizations should start end of February or beginning of March, says @ann_lindstrand. “We're not saying a set date because there are certain caveats that we really need to set, and get ready”, mentions regulatory authorisation, indemnification and liability, logistics.

@GaviSeth @ann_lindstrand @unicefchief @frekris @CEPIvaccines New variants need to be watched, says Lindstrand. “The most important though is that we use fast the vaccines we now have, and get them, distributed to all of the populations that need them around the world."

@GaviSeth @ann_lindstrand @unicefchief @frekris @CEPIvaccines "CEPI is working with all of the manufacturers now to ask the question: How might we adapt vaccines? Do we need to think about booster doses or additional antigens or other ways to work?”, says @GaviSeth.

@GaviSeth @ann_lindstrand @unicefchief @frekris @CEPIvaccines “Of course, we would like more Biontech vaccines in the first and second quarter”, says @GaviSeth. "That is what we were offered given the demand and supply that was there.”

@GaviSeth @ann_lindstrand @unicefchief @frekris @CEPIvaccines “We encourage every manufacturer to make the largest number of doses they can available early, so that we can make sure that we get equitable distribution going, so that with that we can then help control this pandemic as quickly as possible”, says @GaviSeth.

@GaviSeth @ann_lindstrand @unicefchief @frekris @CEPIvaccines Variants open a plethora of R&D questions, says @frekris. “We're working very closely with all the manufacturers in terms of being as ready as possible to do what's called strain variation, so small tweaks to the vaccine so that they can actually work with new strains."

@GaviSeth @ann_lindstrand @unicefchief @frekris @CEPIvaccines I asked about the impact of bilateral deals.
One purpose of COVAX was “to keep the number of bilateral deals down as much as possible”, says @GaviSeth. “For a while that happened but there's most recently been a lot of deals being made."

@GaviSeth @ann_lindstrand @unicefchief @frekris @CEPIvaccines I assume Germany and other EU countries that have bilateral deals in place decided to not take any doses through COVAX because of this. “Of course it helps because that means there are more doses available for others”, says @GaviSeth.

@GaviSeth @ann_lindstrand @unicefchief @frekris @CEPIvaccines COVAX also hopes to get donations from some of these countries, say @GaviSeth. “Our hope is that ultimately countries will make their vaccines available if they have access doses or even options to the COVAX facility, so we can increase the speed of rollout."