Thread by @NorthCoastComms

Dear #MarketingTwitter Colleagues,

The data-driven argument for continued growth in #digital activity and online behavior is flimsy and needs to be scrutinized. (👀@eMarketer & @Merkle)

Let us tell you why:

At the @Merkle #DigitalMarketing event today, we posed this question:

How probable is a reversal in digital activity totals in 2021 Q3&4? How confident can we be in projections for digital behavior in the post-pandemic period if data is based exceptional pandemic-era behavior?

Appreciate @Merkle VP Ryan Gibson’s bottom-line answer:

"I think we're going to continue to see digital growth. I'm very bullish on what we will see the remainder of the year." He cited older demographics using new online tools & uptake in investment platforms (e.g., #RobinHood).

Fine and fair points, but... something is missing.🤔

Let’s recognize that some important digital drivers are, in fact, shifting into reverse.

Look at the headwinds:

1. The era of angry social media #politics has likely peaked in the US for the time being. We know that vitriol and outrage engage.

Do we expect a Trump vs. News Media type of encore in the next 12 months or FY? We don’t think so.

2. Changes in digital tracking, 3rd-party cookies, and the Apple-Facebook privacy battle mean less tailored content & sticky advertisements. In turn, more people will actually put their phones down when they mean to. The device experience will become, marginally, less addictive.

3. The user-base is fatigued. Americans have foregone vacations and other #IRL social activities for the safety of their devices and their homes. That will change in 2021 as things open back up.

4. The internet, writ large, and what people do on it will be (partially) blamed for the insurrection on January 6. Period. Is that a tailwind or a headwind for digital activity? We think it is a headwind.

5. Commutes will return. Good for audio and #podcasting but we think a net negative for digital activity. (Yes, there are still some good souls that don’t use their device while walking or driving in the car.👋)

6. The potential for government regulation of engagement platforms (#socialmedia), as well as industry momentum for self-regulation, suggests more exits and off-ramps from the endless doom scroll.

So, what does this all mean? It depends on who you are. For us, we think #nonprofits and #communications shops looking to allocate their outreach spending need to be careful with their ROI expectations and plan strategically.

Hire a partner to help. We could be that partner. 👋

For other organizations, and not just #digitalmarketers, but #publicrelations and #agency clients, you all should consider the probability of a #DigitalRecession—diminishing returns on your digital advertising and marketing—even as the U.S. economy booms.

Please @ us.

Fin.