1) Today was EXACT opposite of 1/27/21 (closing $GME and most shorted index high).

$Nasdaq up 1.56% but its $TRIN was 2.04. Adv/dec >> up/down volume = high TRIN.

That's never happened since 1996 before today (just like 1/27).

$SPX $SPY $NDX $QQQ $Gold
Image
2) When Nasdaq is down big with low TRIN, Nasdaq bounced at least the next day 7/7 times.

How about strong Nasdaq with high TRIN? There aren't precedents close to today.

Let's try SPX. SPX was up 1.39% while NYSE TRIN was also high at 1.74.

That ...
3) occurred just 3 times since 1996 before today.

After the 3 cases in 2000, SPX declined 7-9% within 2-5 weeks.

N=only 3. And as crazy as 2000 was, last 6 months have also been historically crazy. With many similarities but also big differences in market dynamics. So just FYI. Image
4) Updated $GVIP/GSCBMSAL ratio.

GS HF VIP index/index of highest short interest names in Russell 3000 has bounced 23% since 1/27.

OTOH the ratio is still down 22% YTD and below the lows of the last 5 years. No wonder HFs are having so much fun.
Image

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More from @ResearchQf

5 Feb
FT - $Silver surge could signal coming commodities boom. Serious mainstream press.

FT yesterday - "Food inflation concerns deepen as prices reach highest level since 2014."

Bloomberg Commodity Index BCOM goes back to 1960.

$SPY $QQQ #Commodities #Gold
ft.com/content/faef0b… Image
2) Sure like a 12Y downtrend reversed in December.

Agricultural commodities also did so on a linear chart in Dec. $DBA continues chugging along and has even more upside on a log chart if this is real.

Back to silver. Did silver break out vs. BCOM ...
Image
3) (which also tells you how atrocious commodities broadly have been for so long)?

At least on this chart, the run from 20 to 30 last summer happened after ratio broke the old high. Maybe we're just retesting that point with silver correcting & other commodities rising? Image
Read 7 tweets
4 Feb
1) $Gold down > 2% today after bumping against breakout level for 2W. Just couldn't do it even with that 1 day WSB $silver push. And now back in middle of that channel.

But there's a silver lining. Outperformance of both $XAU ...

$SPY $QQQ $GLD $SLV $GDX
2) (PM mining index) and silver today is pretty rare and at least a very ST positive.

Both silver and PM miners have much higher beta on both up and down days. And today was a big down day for gold.

This happened 23 times since 1996. Miners (XAU) were up the next day 18 times. Image
3) Most recent occurrence was 3/31/20.

Haven't had time to look at intermediate term returns, but eyeballing the chart, multi-month risk/reward skews positive when XAU is at lower end of a 6-9M range, even in late 2011 after the bull market's end and in 2013 during the midst ...
Read 4 tweets
29 Jan
1) $Gold $silver update.

Wondering why gold isn't moving despite intraday swings?

It's caught between a well defined 6M channel and uptrend from Mar lows.

As mentioned before, the first move above was a false breakout but ...

$SPY $QQQ $GLD $SLV $GDX
2) pattern in this pullback is very different.

At closing prices, gold held intermediate trend in channel unlike other corrections (dashed line), the uptrend from Mar, and the top of the channel - all quite precisely.

Gold/silver ratio are at new lows today. PM miners have ...
3) also begun to outperform, with several miners at multiyear highs. This is just bullish.

Resolution probable next week. Next breakout with GLD closing > ~$175 or gold > ~$1875 is unlikely to be a fake out.

Also, inflation expectations are rising as fast or faster than rates.
Read 5 tweets
27 Jan
1) A big one for the history books.

$Nasdaq -2.61% but Nasdaq $TRIN closed at 0.14!

This has never happened since 2000 before today. $GME volume was large, but this is much more than GME.

Before today, the lowest Nasdaq TRIN was 0.3 when Nasdaq ...

$SPX $SPY $NDX $QQQ $Gold Image
2) was down this much.

According to GS, yesterday was the worst alpha day in the history of L/S HFs. I've heard anecdotes of funds down 20%, 30% or more YTD. Today also had to bad.

Most shorted index GSCBMSAL was up another 9% today and 52% YTD. But ...
3) $GVIP, the ETF of HF top longs, was down 4.3% today and down 3.2% YTD>

So shorts traded/covered high volume but most stocks down. Up/down volume ratio >> advance/decline ratio = very low TRIN.

So GVIP/GSCBMSAL ratio is down 35% last 20D and lowest since 2014, giving up 6 ... Image
Read 5 tweets
11 Dec 19
So ... the large discrepancy between weak ADP and the huge upside in #NFP for November caused some consternation last Friday. For example, @JulianMI2 pointed out that
But I also noticed this comment - Thanksgiving timing effect "could be at least 100k" - attributed to @EconguyRosie via @carlquintanilla
Could timing of Thanksgiving have such a large impact on payroll numbers? Haven't looked into hiring rates just before and after Thanksgiving, but 2019 was the first year since 2013 and 2014 where Thanksgiving occurred during a last full workweek ending the month.
Read 8 tweets

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