After the 3 cases in 2000, SPX declined 7-9% within 2-5 weeks.
N=only 3. And as crazy as 2000 was, last 6 months have also been historically crazy. With many similarities but also big differences in market dynamics. So just FYI.
4) Updated $GVIP/GSCBMSAL ratio.
GS HF VIP index/index of highest short interest names in Russell 3000 has bounced 23% since 1/27.
OTOH the ratio is still down 22% YTD and below the lows of the last 5 years. No wonder HFs are having so much fun.
3) (which also tells you how atrocious commodities broadly have been for so long)?
At least on this chart, the run from 20 to 30 last summer happened after ratio broke the old high. Maybe we're just retesting that point with silver correcting & other commodities rising?
1) $Gold down > 2% today after bumping against breakout level for 2W. Just couldn't do it even with that 1 day WSB $silver push. And now back in middle of that channel.
But there's a silver lining. Outperformance of both $XAU ...
2) (PM mining index) and silver today is pretty rare and at least a very ST positive.
Both silver and PM miners have much higher beta on both up and down days. And today was a big down day for gold.
This happened 23 times since 1996. Miners (XAU) were up the next day 18 times.
3) Most recent occurrence was 3/31/20.
Haven't had time to look at intermediate term returns, but eyeballing the chart, multi-month risk/reward skews positive when XAU is at lower end of a 6-9M range, even in late 2011 after the bull market's end and in 2013 during the midst ...
At closing prices, gold held intermediate trend in channel unlike other corrections (dashed line), the uptrend from Mar, and the top of the channel - all quite precisely.
Gold/silver ratio are at new lows today. PM miners have ...
3) also begun to outperform, with several miners at multiyear highs. This is just bullish.
Resolution probable next week. Next breakout with GLD closing > ~$175 or gold > ~$1875 is unlikely to be a fake out.
Also, inflation expectations are rising as fast or faster than rates.
This has never happened since 2000 before today. $GME volume was large, but this is much more than GME.
Before today, the lowest Nasdaq TRIN was 0.3 when Nasdaq ...
$SPX $SPY $NDX $QQQ $Gold
2) was down this much.
According to GS, yesterday was the worst alpha day in the history of L/S HFs. I've heard anecdotes of funds down 20%, 30% or more YTD. Today also had to bad.
Most shorted index GSCBMSAL was up another 9% today and 52% YTD. But ...
So ... the large discrepancy between weak ADP and the huge upside in #NFP for November caused some consternation last Friday. For example, @JulianMI2 pointed out that
Could timing of Thanksgiving have such a large impact on payroll numbers? Haven't looked into hiring rates just before and after Thanksgiving, but 2019 was the first year since 2013 and 2014 where Thanksgiving occurred during a last full workweek ending the month.