Thread by @ResearchQf

FT - $Silver surge could signal coming commodities boom. Serious mainstream press.

FT yesterday - "Food inflation concerns deepen as prices reach highest level since 2014."

Bloomberg Commodity Index BCOM goes back to 1960.

$SPY $QQQ #Commodities #Gold
ft.com/content/faef0b…

2) Sure like a 12Y downtrend reversed in December.

Agricultural commodities also did so on a linear chart in Dec. $DBA continues chugging along and has even more upside on a log chart if this is real.

Back to silver. Did silver break out vs. BCOM ...

https://twitter.com/ResearchQf/status/1339587120038510594

3) (which also tells you how atrocious commodities broadly have been for so long)?

At least on this chart, the run from 20 to 30 last summer happened after ratio broke the old high. Maybe we're just retesting that point with silver correcting & other commodities rising?

4) Gold/BCOM ratio. Gold has hugely outperformed other commodities for decades. Based on this chart, gold was clearly extended last summer and is now back to a steeper trend that began in 2018.

Will it hold? A break could occur with gold rising if other commodities rise faster.

5) E.g. I've discussed #Platinum since last spring. Platinum reversed a 13Y downtrend in December and broke out relative to gold last month. $PPLT

Still a $1400 3-6M target, but it could double or more LT if its relationship vs. gold returns to the average of last 30-40 years.

6) And gold can rise with platinum rising faster if we're entering a true cycle.

One more chart. BCOM vs. SPX. Prior major lows were in 1968 and 1999. Despite all the commodities chatter, the all time low was just in December.

BCOM/SPX would need to rise 50% just to get ...

7) back to the lower trendline. The ratio would have to almost triple to reach the prior secular low in 1999.

As discussed several times, there will be plenty of time to confirm and capture a big move. If this thing is real, we've just begun.