1) More than three weeks have gone by since Quebec completed the first round of #COVID19 vaccinations among the residents of long-term care centres (CHSLDs). These residents have yet to receive their booster shots. In this thread, I will re-examine the vaccination effort.
2) Quebec launched its #COVID19 vaccination campaign Dec. 14, giving shots to the residents and staff of CHSLDs. On that date, there were 811 active #COVID19 cases among the residents of CHSLDs. I will compare this cohort with those living in private seniors’ residences (RPAs).
3) On Dec. 14, there were 1,465 #COVID19 cases among those living in seniors’ residences or RPAs. The government did not start vaccinating these individuals in earnest until last week because of delays in shipments by Pfizer.
4) Thus, I’m comparing one group of mostly non-autonomous elderly who were vaccinated in CHSLDs with a cohort of mostly autonomous elderly in RPAs who for the most part have not yet been vaccinated. How did the two groups fare?
5) By Jan. 9, the day Quebec activated its nightly curfew, the number of active #COVID19 cases in RPAs soared by 25.73% to 1,842. In contrast, the number of cases in CHSLDs actually dipped by 2.22% to 793. Perhaps this was a one-time blip.
6) By Sunday, Feb. 7, Quebec reported that the number of #COVID19 cases in RPAs decreased by 61.02% to 718 since Jan. 9. By comparison, the number of cases dropped by 66.83% to 263 in CHSLDs. That’s a difference of 5.81% in the once-vaccinated group.
7) In recent days, new #COVID19 cases have been declining at a faster rate in the CHSLDs than in the RPAs. For example, the number of new cases decreased by 2.18% Sunday in RPAs, compared with 3.53% in CHSLDs, from the day before.
8) Obviously, this is not an entirely fair comparison because the CHSLD and RPA groups are not identical. What’s more, 7,000 orderlies were hired to improve infection control in CHSLDs. But the preliminary data would appear to suggest some benefit to the first shots.
9) But I think the more pertinent question to ask is what the results would have been had CHSLD residents been given the second shots three weeks later, as recommended under strict protocols by Pfizer and Moderna. Would there have been more of a reduction in cases?
10) Another question to ask is whether it would have made more sense to administer to CHSLD residents the booster shots on the schedule recommended by the vaccine manufacturers, given the likely presence of the more transmissible #COVID19 variants in Quebec.
11) Meanwhile, the number of #COVID19 hospitalizations continued to trend downward on Sunday to 963. In Montreal, such hospitalizations went down by one to 481. Three hospitals — Sacré-Cœur, Maisonneuve-Rosemont and the Lakeshore posted modest increases.
12) But #COVID19 outbreaks in schools remained a stark outlier, increasing by two to 274. Clusters in all other sectors, including the workplace, have been sloping downward. However, one can expect workplace outbreaks to go back up as stores reopen on Monday. End of thread.
Addendum: Here are two charts I made that didn’t quite fit today’s thread. In the first chart, on Montreal’s #COVID19 cases, one can glimpse a possible plateauing of infections in the metropolis. 
Addendum 2: in the second chart, on Montreal’s #COVID19 deaths, it’s a bit harder to tell whether such fatalities are plateauing, but they are down from more than two weeks ago.
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