1) It may be only a one-day blip, but Montreal reported an uptick in #COVID19 hospitalizations on Monday, in contrast with days of declines in the rest of the province. In this thread, I will examine what this may mean during the second wave in the #pandemic.
2) The number of #COVID19 hospitalizations in the metropolis rose by 15 to 496 on Monday. Eight of the city’s 17 hospitals posted increases in admissions ranging from one (to 46) at the Royal Victoria Hospital to seven at the Jewish General for a total of 66.
3) There were also increases in hospitalizations in some institutions in the greater Montreal area, including seven to 36 at Hôpital Pierre Le Gardeur, two to nine at Hôpital de Saint-Eustache and one to 50 at Cité de la Santé in Laval. Provincially, the total rose by six to 969.
4) The high numbers of #COVID19 hospitalizations mean the government will continue with its policy of délestage, or the postponement of medical procedures. In Montreal, half of all elective or non-urgent surgeries are being put off because of over-stretched resources.
5) In addition, emergency room overcrowding is surging again in the metropolitan Montreal region, as the chart below makes clear. The hardest-hit hospital is the Jewish General, with an ER occupancy rate of 172%, making it harder to separate #COVID19 patient from non-COVID ones.
6) Amid high testing, Montreal posted 393 #COVID19 cases on Monday, down from 476 the day before. The city’s seven-day rolling average nonetheless remained high at 24.44 cases per 100,000 residents, just below Harvard University’s stay-at-home recommendations.
7) Drilling down to the neighborhood level, community transmission of the #coronavirus remained high in the east end and centre of the city, although the incidence has been trending down for the past two weeks, especially in Saint-Léonard.
8) Across Quebec, the number of #COVID19 outbreaks dropped by 13 to 1,193. But clusters in schools were once again the exception, rising by four to 278. For reasons that are unclear, the provincial Education Ministry did not make public an update on Monday.
9) Meanwhile, Quebec gave one shot only of the #COVID19 vaccine to 2,636 people Sunday. In total, 2.7% of the population has received first shots. In the U.S., top health official Anthony Fauci for two days in a row insisted that it doesn’t make sense to delay the second shot.
10) Despite this mixed record in the province, non-essential stores and hairdressers reopened in Montreal on Monday, even as the likelihood increases of more transmissible #COVID19 variants circulating in Quebec. End of thread. Please limit your social contacts.

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More from @Aaron_Derfel

11 Feb
1) Montreal public health authorities revealed on Wednesday that the super transmissible B117 variant is circulating a lot more in the city than previously known, triggering massive #COVID19 screening in some schools. In this thread, I will examine what this means.
2) First, Dr. Mylène Drouin of the public health department noted the city has eight confirmed B117 cases (one higher than provincial authorities have disclosed) and one from the California variant, Cal.20C, blamed for the spike in recently diagnosed infections in Los Angeles.
3) Second, Dr. Drouin added authorities have counted 23 presumptive cases of the B117 variant after initial screening. That means those cases have tested positive for the N501Y mutation on the spike protein of the #coronavirus. Genetic sequencing will confirm the exact variant.
Read 14 tweets
10 Feb
1) As the #pandemic’s second wave shows signs of subsiding in Quebec during the nightly curfew, authorities are already bracing for the prospect of a third wave, with the confirmation of three more #coronavirus variants in the province on Tuesday.
2) Dr. Michel Roger, head of Quebec’s #coronavirus tracking program, told me he was worried about the impact of a variant-fueled third wave on the province’s testing capacity. “If there is a third wave with the variants, it will be difficult,” Roger said. montrealgazette.com/news/quebec/qu…
3) Meanwhile, #COVID19 was trending downward Tuesday in all categories except in schools. The Education Ministry reported the temporary closing of eight more schools since last Friday, suggesting transmission remains elevated in this sector. Image
Read 10 tweets
7 Feb
1) More than three weeks have gone by since Quebec completed the first round of #COVID19 vaccinations among the residents of long-term care centres (CHSLDs). These residents have yet to receive their booster shots. In this thread, I will re-examine the vaccination effort.
2) Quebec launched its #COVID19 vaccination campaign Dec. 14, giving shots to the residents and staff of CHSLDs. On that date, there were 811 active #COVID19 cases among the residents of CHSLDs. I will compare this cohort with those living in private seniors’ residences (RPAs).
3) On Dec. 14, there were 1,465 #COVID19 cases among those living in seniors’ residences or RPAs. The government did not start vaccinating these individuals in earnest until last week because of delays in shipments by Pfizer.
Read 14 tweets
7 Feb
1) Although the number of Quebec's #COVID hospitalizations dipped below 1,000 Saturday for the first time since Dec. 15, Health Minister Christian Dubé urged anyone with the slightest symptoms to get tested. In this thread, I'll try to explain why the situation is still so dire.
2) The Health Minister explained that #COVID19 cases were on the increase in the past few days. This is true for both the province and Montreal, with the number of infections rising for three days in a row to 1,204 in Quebec. But there’s a lot more to this story.
3) Although #COVID19 outbreaks have been declining in the workplace and in health-care institutions, they’ve been rising sharply in schools across Quebec. The government reported that the number of clusters in schools jumped by 17 to 272 on Saturday.
Read 11 tweets
6 Feb
1) It’s a question I’ve been asked many times during the #COVID19 pandemic: Why has Quebec reported far more deaths than any other province? On the eve of Quebec crossing the 10,000-death threshold, I will try to provide an answer. montrealgazette.com/news/local-new…
2) First, respectfully, I’m not persuaded by Premier François Legault’s argument Quebec is “more Catholic than the Pope” compared with other jurisdictions in declaring #COVID19 deaths. Making that argument risks absolving the government of its responsibility in the #pandemic. Image
3) Quebec, like Ontario, failed our elders living in long-term care centres. For at least two decades, report after report in Quebec denounced the horrific living conditions in these centres. Nothing was done. Then the #pandemic hit, mostly killing people in these facilities.
Read 11 tweets
4 Feb
1) Montreal on Wednesday reported the total number of #COVID19 outbreaks jumped by 67 to 549 since a week ago, with most clusters erupting in schools and the workplace. In this thread, I will gauge the potential impact that reopening stores Monday will have on viral transmission.
2) Outbreaks in the workplace are linked to the second greatest number of #COVID19 cases after those in hospitals and eldercare homes. The manufacturing sector was responsible for most of the outbreaks in Montreal workplaces last week. Please review the chart below.
3) Clusters of #COVID19 rose by two to 22 in Montreal’s retail stores. This slight increase doesn't augur well for the reopening of these businesses Monday, especially as authorities are bracing for the more contagious B117 variant to hit Quebec possibly as early as next month
Read 9 tweets

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