1- I may have spoken about this before, but I think it’s rather likely existing #DeFi protocols would vertically and horizontally expand into financial conglomerates. What’s 1 module of financial primitives would expand to a full suite of services
2- …for the main reason being (a) you spent the CAC for customer & TVL, might as well monetize, (b) devs need new things to put minds on + take on more cool projects, (c) token-holders demand more, and (d) meaningful synergy across primitives.
3 – for #DeFi on ETH. The barrier of entry is starting to form – there’s L2 to think about, there’s “should I be on DOT / have my own chain”, but there’s also “is my team stacked enough to compete against XYZ while XYZ broadens the scope.”
4 – In that sense, the catch-up trade on $SUSHI towards $UNI is cool (growth in TVL + volume, multiple rerating), but what’s way cooler is new non-AMM initiatives that diversify fee-streams to xSushi beyond just the 5 bps from AMM.
5 – For a lesser team, diversification could mean being eclipsed by more focused niche solutions. But judging the bench @ $SUSHI they might just pull it off. At maturity I’m imagine derivs fee, loan spreads, tranching fees, etc all feeding into xSushi stakers.
6 - …the current framework of TVL * volume * take-rate would need to be expanded dramatically to account for the soon “Sushi FinCo” vs. just “Sushi AMM”, this will be a massive rerating, and quite frankly that’s the future all these finance primitives are sprinting towards.
7 – The first to realize such vision (hopefully with L2 and solid execution) while linking well with CeFi & direct B2C apps + other L0/L1s will have a real shot at top 10 or even top 5 in 2021. To do so I think you’d have to be a bazaar + open-sourced with well-comped chad coders
8 - …alongside strong community guidance on continuous PMF iteration, rapid forking of what works, relentless biz-dev into all hook-points, and degenerate meme-ing to achieve best valuation (and thereby best compensation for most talented devs).
@mcuban you may find this thread about $SUSHI amusing.
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Good work by @Lucas; here's my latest visual. Think Sushi is >2x undervalued vs. $UNI. $UNI and $AAVE seem to be catching inst. bids, $UNI also trades like pot'l v3 release w/ inside info. FWIW I expect gap to close w/ catalyst w/ $SUSHI on Bentobox, Mirin, & other good stuff 👀
Sushi's fully diluted mkt cap could use work -- it's 250 mm vs. what I pulled. so more like 1.8 Bn USD. This puts UNI's diluted 4-5x more than Sushi. The point still stands. One could argue $UNI should have a premium given being #1, pending catalyst, and broadest reach today
Next pts of differentiation around (a) more pairs onboarding + being the go-to for best degen bets, (b) linking closer to exchanges, (c) L2 adoption when makes-sense, (d) broadening liquidity product set when makes-sense, and (e) cross-chain + CeDeFi stuff when necessary.
(0) I’m a little #drunj, so here’s a belated 2021-2025 prediction. It becomes much easier to predict 5-10 years out vs. the next year so apologies for the cop-out. I think the outcome would be bifurcated.
(1) Libra equivalent / ETH 2.0 + L2 / Polkadot set off the flywheel of infrastructure prompting application improvements and vice versa, whereby ecosystems and stacks compete for capital and talent. I personally bias towards open, permissionless blockchains.
(2) 1st iteration killer app / use-case emerges utilizing the valuenet and we go through a 1999-type mania. I don’t know what it is, but it’d have to utilize L1+ #DeFi and does something impossible today. It’d be painfully obvious for anyone active in the ecosystem today.
Continue to like the pace at which the @BreederDodo team iterates + take user feedbacks. Looking forward to v2.0 with more features. A few additional thoughts on how AMM+ may evolve in the next 6 months:
Protocols need clean roadmaps for both 2C and 2B -- 2C is as in a solid interface for all key functions a degen may need (assuming trading isn't disintermediated), and 2B is Biz Dev for POS + best algo / optimization for aggregators.
I could argue that all AMM would need to become aggregators eventually (with private pools), and vice versa -- for when you worked so hard on CAC for a customer, you don't want them leaving to another venue. The same goes for adding lend/borrow, derivative features as well
(0) Since our last report on July 4th, 2020, The #DeFi space and our mental framework had evolved enough to prompt another iteration – a deck about the broader #valuenet and ETH-based #DeFi / #WallstreetAPI. As usual, would appreciate any feedback!
(0.5) As #Bitcoin soars to uncharted heights today and hitting sweetest part of adoption S-curve at 3rd to 4th inning, we feel like broader #valuenet + #DeFi concept is barely at top half of first inning. If one is so adventurous, this is likely where the next 100-10,000x is born
(1) @cdixon coined the term “game-theoretic guarantee” for tx offered by L0/L1s (too cogent not to steal) -- this nascent, transparent, market-driven alternative harbors a different cost function vs. the legacy recourse-deterring ones, as seen by the Value-transfer-cost U-curve.
(0) This will be a thread about $DHT, what I deem the prime brokerage /custodian / managerial platform on top of $SNX. While you are at it, if you think you got the chops, make sure to apply to the $500k seed investment to kickstart your fund:
(1) $DHT’s core function very similar to a combo of SS&C, Millennium pod platform, StanChar custodian, and JPM Prime Broker. All the back-end & admin details taken care of, so all a manager needs to do is to generate returns (algo or discretionary)
(2) For any aspiring traders, value-prop is simple – if one has so much alpha, why not leverage that know-how and earn some carry? Those that can, do; those who can’t would just larp / shitpost on youtube / twitter while selling newsletters (you know who you are).
(0) While the progress of L2 is on-going, I think another area within #DeFi is highly interesting today and remains slightly underexplored by buidlers and speculators / investors alike – tools & modularization add-ons ($GRT, $Gauntlet, $KP3R, $GYSR)
(1) In this thread I will give 2 types of directions I see today – (a) B2B type buidler tools like $GRT and $Gauntlet, and (b) process-streamlining / modularization tools like $GYSR and $KP3R. This is not endorsement by any sorts but merely highlighting what’s cool out there.
(2) B2B tools by definition service the buidler community to help them buidl better – and there are 2 areas one can find particularly visible that’s almost blockchain / web3 native: one is faster retrieval of standardized on-chain data, and other being simulation of all sorts.