B117 grows exponentially in AB, doubling every 7 days.
At this rate it'll become dominant on Mar05
and AB will have:
Mar 15, 500 daily new cases
Mar 24, 1000 daily new cases
Mar 31, 2000 daily new cases
Yes, the government and AH can avoid it. By aiming for #COVIDzero ASAP
At this rate it'll become dominant on Mar05
and AB will have:
Mar 15, 500 daily new cases
Mar 24, 1000 daily new cases
Mar 31, 2000 daily new cases
Yes, the government and AH can avoid it. By aiming for #COVIDzero ASAP
To put such growth in context:
AB fall surge: doubling time = 2.5 weeks
March, beginning of the pandemic: doubling time = 7 days
Today's B117, *despite of restrictions in place*: doubling time = 7 days
AB fall surge: doubling time = 2.5 weeks
March, beginning of the pandemic: doubling time = 7 days
Today's B117, *despite of restrictions in place*: doubling time = 7 days
What does this fast growth mean?
1) AB travel control is weak -> B117 gets seeded in the community.
2) Testing (although impressively ramped up) and Tracing is *not* halting B117's exp. growth.
Alberta *doesn't have B117 under control*.
1) AB travel control is weak -> B117 gets seeded in the community.
2) Testing (although impressively ramped up) and Tracing is *not* halting B117's exp. growth.
Alberta *doesn't have B117 under control*.
For clarification: the data on which I based this calculation is not perfect. It's based on dates when cases were *announced*.
I hope that AH will publish more granular data next week (w/ specific date information), so that making more accurate calculations will be possible.
I hope that AH will publish more granular data next week (w/ specific date information), so that making more accurate calculations will be possible.
It would be also great to be able to separate community cases from travel related cases, and see how those two trajectories differ.
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