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Malgorzata (Gosia) Gasperowicz Profile picture
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2 Dec, 5 tweets, 2 min read
YYC NE has an extremely high new case rate (100/100 K, growing exponentially). It has a super fast doubling time of new daily cases: 1.5 weeks (AB 2.5 weeks).

Everywhere in the world, frontline & essential workers are the primary victims of insufficient pandemic responses.

1/
Calgary NE:
Daily new cases grow exponentially
Doubling time is: 1.5 weeks

At this rate, in NE, there will be:

Dec 15, 520 daily new cases
Dec 26, 1025 daily new cases
Jan 01, 1480 daily new cases

We need a sharp U-turn *now*

2/
Every day of *not implementing* supported lockdown in AB costs lives 👇

3/
With current half-measures: cases, hospitalizations and deaths will keep growing

We are in a disaster, which grows every day

The only proven way to do a U-turn is a lockdown with a strong financial support for individuals, businesses and vulnerable ppl
If we decide that we want it, it’s just 8 – 12 weeks to get to #COVIDzero in AB.
We can save lives, livelihoods, healthcare system and the economy. 👇

5/

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More from @GosiaGasperoPhD

Malgorzata (Gosia) Gasperowicz Profile picture
30 Nov
Alberta: COVID Hospitalizations grow exponentially.
Doubling every 2.5 weeks

At this rate there will have:

On X-mas, 1,190 COVID patients in hospitals
On New Year, 1,560 COVID patients in hospitals

We don't know how to clone doctors and nurses

1/
2/
With current half-measures: cases, hospitalizations and deaths will keep growing

We are in a disaster, which grows every day

The only proven way to do a U-turn is a lockdown with a strong financial support for individuals, businesses and vulnerable ppl
Read 5 tweets
Malgorzata (Gosia) Gasperowicz Profile picture
28 Nov
Alberta:

70 ICU beds set for COVID patients are FULL

ICU hospitalizations doubling time is 2–2.5 weeks

Overflow beds are not a solution bc:

1) Beds don’t cure ppl. HCWs cure ppl. We can’t clone HCWs

2) 23% of ICU COVID patients die, in spite of everything HCWs do

3)...

1/
...
3) At the current rate so many ICU COVID beds will be full soon (% of initial capacity):

Dec 25, 280-450 beds (400% - 640%)
Jan 01, 370-650 beds (530% - 930%)

We need a sharp U-turn ASAP

2/
With current half-measures, cases, hospitalizations and deaths will keep growing

We are in a disaster, which grows every day

The only proven way to do a U-turn is a lockdown with a strong financial support for individuals, businesses and vulnerable ppl

Read 4 tweets
Malgorzata (Gosia) Gasperowicz Profile picture
20 Nov
Alberta: COVID-19 spreads exponentially

Daily new cases doubling time is ~ 3 weeks
We are already at a *1,000* daily

At this rate we will have:

Dec 08, 2200+ daily new cases
Dec 28, 4400+ daily new cases
Jan 17, 8800+ daily new cases

"The Nightmare for Christmas"

1/
Cases beget hospitalizations and deaths.

Hospitalizations doubling time is ~2.5 weeks

2/
ICU hospitalizations doubling time is < 2 weeks.

We will likely reach 100% capacity in less than a week.

3/
Read 9 tweets
Malgorzata (Gosia) Gasperowicz Profile picture
6 Nov
Alberta: Exponential growth
Daily new cases doubling time is still ~2.5 weeks

Projection stays the same:
Nov 11, 1000+ daily new cases
Nov 28, 2000+ daily new cases
Dec 15, 4000+ daily new cases

We urgently need a decisive action to avoid a crisis.

1/ Image
We, together with most Western countries, achieved now the surge predicted by theory (red line) 👇

2/
endcoronavirus.org/green-zones Image
It's not too late to change the strategy

Let's follow NZ, Vietnam, Atlantic Canada, Australian states, and others, who succeeded in elimination
(elimination = no sustained community transmission)

(While our experimenting with "simmering" ended up with roaring flames)

3/
Read 5 tweets
Malgorzata (Gosia) Gasperowicz Profile picture
29 Oct
AB doubling time is 2.5 weeks.
It seems to be über-exponential➡️the doubling time shortens with time.

At this rate we will have:
Nov 11, 1000+ daily new cases
Nov 28, 2000+ daily new cases
Dec 15, 4000+ daily new cases
and so on.

Cases beget hospitalizations and deaths.
1/
It's too late for soft measures.
We need strong decisive measures + $$ support for businesses and people ASAP, in order to substantially *reduce the scale* of the upcoming disaster.

It takes 3-4 weeks from the shutdown date till the peak in cases and hospitalizations.

2/
If we shut down today, we will still reach at least 1600-2000 daily new cases, before numbers start to decrease.

If we shut down on Nov 15, we will reach 3000+ daily new cases before numbers start to decrease.

Either we control the virus, or the virus controls us.

3/
Read 6 tweets
Malgorzata (Gosia) Gasperowicz Profile picture
16 Oct
AB: Daily new cases grow exponentially since May 25.

Doubling time calculated for May 25 - Oct 15 is:
50 days (~7 weeks) (95% CI [45, 57])

It can flip to a faster rate at *any time*
It cannot slow down by itself.

Even at a current rate it's bad;
It means:
....
1/
It means, that even if the growth won't speed up, we will have:
500 daily new cases by Dec 03
1000 daily new cases by Jan 21

and so on..., doubling every 7 weeks.

2/
Persistent exponential growth means that the virus spread is not under control.

It's not a "Slow Burn"* or a "Dance", oscillating around some fixed number.
This is a constant growth.
Slowish, yet persistent.

(*Disclaimer: I'm against Slow Burn as a goal. I'm for #ZeroCovid)
3/
Read 6 tweets

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