The meaning of R

Sustained R, starting from 1,600 daily new cases (dnc):

R=0.97 ➡️ halving time (ht)=3 months ➡️ 1,020 dnc in 2 months
R=0.8 ➡️ ht=12.4 days ➡️ 60 dnc in 2 months, zero in 4.5 months
R=0.6 ➡️ ht=5.4 days ➡️ ZERO dnc in *2 months*

1/
The meaning of R

Sustained R, starting from 1,600 daily new cases,

Toll of the first 2 months:

R=0.97 ➡️ 76,300 cases ➡️ 1,220 deaths
R=0.8 ➡️ 28,400 cases ➡️ 450 deaths
R=0.6 ➡️ 13,300 cases ➡️ 210 deaths

2/
Toll of subsequent months (after the first 2 months):

R=0.97 : a lot of cases & deaths, high risk of exponential surge & next lockdown
R=0.8 : some cases and deaths, high risk of exponential surge & next lockdown
R=0.6 : NOTHING

3/
What gives which R value

R=0.97 ⬅️ some restrictions
R=0.8 ⬅️ demi-lockdown (e.g. businesses closed but schools open, insufficient travel restrictions, etc.)
R=0.5-0.65 ⬅️ regular lockdown (e.g. 1st wave Austria, New Zealand, 2nd wave Melbourne/Victoria Stage 4/3)

4/
For reference, Alberta's halving time in the 1st wave was 7.8 days (an equivalent of R=0.7 )

5/
Extra ingredients:
✅ Addressing aerosol transmission of COVID-19
✅ Vaccine
will additionally lower the R

6/
Thank you @Imgrund for answering my questions and explaining the relationship between R value and halving time! 🙏

7/

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More from @GosiaGasperoPhD

6 Dec
YYC, Alberta
If we implement a *supported lockdown* this Monday, Dec 7, Calgary can have:

Dec 27, 225 daily new cases (not 1,350)
Feb 05, *0* daily new cases (not 4,600)

#COVIDzero
Tell it to MLAs today. Ask them to act.
Contact info:
assembly.ab.ca/members/member…

1/
Postponing a supported lockdown enables the virus to kill people.
1,000 cases corresponds to 16 deaths.

2/
If we get to #COVIDzero in Calgary by early February, then keep wiping with vaccine* and TTI, we have high chances to have Stampede 2021.

*AH anticipation: 10% AB vaccinated by end of March, 40% by September.
That's not enough to stop the spread before July by vaccine only.
Read 4 tweets
2 Dec
YYC NE has an extremely high new case rate (100/100 K, growing exponentially). It has a super fast doubling time of new daily cases: 1.5 weeks (AB 2.5 weeks).

Everywhere in the world, frontline & essential workers are the primary victims of insufficient pandemic responses.

1/
Calgary NE:
Daily new cases grow exponentially
Doubling time is: 1.5 weeks

At this rate, in NE, there will be:

Dec 15, 520 daily new cases
Dec 26, 1025 daily new cases
Jan 01, 1480 daily new cases

We need a sharp U-turn *now*

2/
Every day of *not implementing* supported lockdown in AB costs lives 👇

3/
Read 5 tweets
30 Nov
Alberta: COVID Hospitalizations grow exponentially.
Doubling every 2.5 weeks

At this rate there will have:

On X-mas, 1,190 COVID patients in hospitals
On New Year, 1,560 COVID patients in hospitals

We don't know how to clone doctors and nurses

1/
2/
With current half-measures: cases, hospitalizations and deaths will keep growing

We are in a disaster, which grows every day

The only proven way to do a U-turn is a lockdown with a strong financial support for individuals, businesses and vulnerable ppl
Read 5 tweets
28 Nov
Alberta:

70 ICU beds set for COVID patients are FULL

ICU hospitalizations doubling time is 2–2.5 weeks

Overflow beds are not a solution bc:

1) Beds don’t cure ppl. HCWs cure ppl. We can’t clone HCWs

2) 23% of ICU COVID patients die, in spite of everything HCWs do

3)...

1/
...
3) At the current rate so many ICU COVID beds will be full soon (% of initial capacity):

Dec 25, 280-450 beds (400% - 640%)
Jan 01, 370-650 beds (530% - 930%)

We need a sharp U-turn ASAP

2/
With current half-measures, cases, hospitalizations and deaths will keep growing

We are in a disaster, which grows every day

The only proven way to do a U-turn is a lockdown with a strong financial support for individuals, businesses and vulnerable ppl

Read 4 tweets
20 Nov
Alberta: COVID-19 spreads exponentially

Daily new cases doubling time is ~ 3 weeks
We are already at a *1,000* daily

At this rate we will have:

Dec 08, 2200+ daily new cases
Dec 28, 4400+ daily new cases
Jan 17, 8800+ daily new cases

"The Nightmare for Christmas"

1/
Cases beget hospitalizations and deaths.

Hospitalizations doubling time is ~2.5 weeks

2/
ICU hospitalizations doubling time is < 2 weeks.

We will likely reach 100% capacity in less than a week.

3/
Read 9 tweets
6 Nov
Alberta: Exponential growth
Daily new cases doubling time is still ~2.5 weeks

Projection stays the same:
Nov 11, 1000+ daily new cases
Nov 28, 2000+ daily new cases
Dec 15, 4000+ daily new cases

We urgently need a decisive action to avoid a crisis.

1/ Image
We, together with most Western countries, achieved now the surge predicted by theory (red line) 👇

2/
endcoronavirus.org/green-zones Image
It's not too late to change the strategy

Let's follow NZ, Vietnam, Atlantic Canada, Australian states, and others, who succeeded in elimination
(elimination = no sustained community transmission)

(While our experimenting with "simmering" ended up with roaring flames)

3/
Read 5 tweets

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