Share this page!

Malgorzata (Gosia) Gasperowicz Profile picture
Twitter logo
30 Nov, 5 tweets, 2 min read
Alberta: COVID Hospitalizations grow exponentially.
Doubling every 2.5 weeks

At this rate there will have:

On X-mas, 1,190 COVID patients in hospitals
On New Year, 1,560 COVID patients in hospitals

We don't know how to clone doctors and nurses

1/
2/
With current half-measures: cases, hospitalizations and deaths will keep growing

We are in a disaster, which grows every day

The only proven way to do a U-turn is a lockdown with a strong financial support for individuals, businesses and vulnerable ppl
Those who kept supported lockdown + travel quarantine in place long enough (6 - 15 weeks, depending on where they started at, and how stringent the measures were), successfully got to #COVIDzero and now they have their normalcy back.

(NZ, Australia, Atl Canada & others)

4/
If today we do a *financially supported* lockdown in Alberta, we could definitely have donuts (Zero 00 🍩🍩 New Covid Cases) for Valentines.

Protect lives, livelihoods, health and the economy.
And get back on our feet.

#ZeroCovid4Valentines

🍁🍩🍩💖

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Malgorzata (Gosia) Gasperowicz

Malgorzata (Gosia) Gasperowicz Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @GosiaGasperoPhD

Malgorzata (Gosia) Gasperowicz Profile picture
2 Dec
YYC NE has an extremely high new case rate (100/100 K, growing exponentially). It has a super fast doubling time of new daily cases: 1.5 weeks (AB 2.5 weeks).

Everywhere in the world, frontline & essential workers are the primary victims of insufficient pandemic responses.

1/ Image
Calgary NE:
Daily new cases grow exponentially
Doubling time is: 1.5 weeks

At this rate, in NE, there will be:

Dec 15, 520 daily new cases
Dec 26, 1025 daily new cases
Jan 01, 1480 daily new cases

We need a sharp U-turn *now*

2/ Image
Every day of *not implementing* supported lockdown in AB costs lives 👇

3/
Read 5 tweets
Malgorzata (Gosia) Gasperowicz Profile picture
28 Nov
Alberta:

70 ICU beds set for COVID patients are FULL

ICU hospitalizations doubling time is 2–2.5 weeks

Overflow beds are not a solution bc:

1) Beds don’t cure ppl. HCWs cure ppl. We can’t clone HCWs

2) 23% of ICU COVID patients die, in spite of everything HCWs do

3)...

1/
...
3) At the current rate so many ICU COVID beds will be full soon (% of initial capacity):

Dec 25, 280-450 beds (400% - 640%)
Jan 01, 370-650 beds (530% - 930%)

We need a sharp U-turn ASAP

2/
With current half-measures, cases, hospitalizations and deaths will keep growing

We are in a disaster, which grows every day

The only proven way to do a U-turn is a lockdown with a strong financial support for individuals, businesses and vulnerable ppl

Read 4 tweets
Malgorzata (Gosia) Gasperowicz Profile picture
20 Nov
Alberta: COVID-19 spreads exponentially

Daily new cases doubling time is ~ 3 weeks
We are already at a *1,000* daily

At this rate we will have:

Dec 08, 2200+ daily new cases
Dec 28, 4400+ daily new cases
Jan 17, 8800+ daily new cases

"The Nightmare for Christmas"

1/
Cases beget hospitalizations and deaths.

Hospitalizations doubling time is ~2.5 weeks

2/
ICU hospitalizations doubling time is < 2 weeks.

We will likely reach 100% capacity in less than a week.

3/
Read 9 tweets
Malgorzata (Gosia) Gasperowicz Profile picture
6 Nov
Alberta: Exponential growth
Daily new cases doubling time is still ~2.5 weeks

Projection stays the same:
Nov 11, 1000+ daily new cases
Nov 28, 2000+ daily new cases
Dec 15, 4000+ daily new cases

We urgently need a decisive action to avoid a crisis.

1/ Image
We, together with most Western countries, achieved now the surge predicted by theory (red line) 👇

2/
endcoronavirus.org/green-zones Image
It's not too late to change the strategy

Let's follow NZ, Vietnam, Atlantic Canada, Australian states, and others, who succeeded in elimination
(elimination = no sustained community transmission)

(While our experimenting with "simmering" ended up with roaring flames)

3/
Read 5 tweets
Malgorzata (Gosia) Gasperowicz Profile picture
29 Oct
AB doubling time is 2.5 weeks.
It seems to be über-exponential➡️the doubling time shortens with time.

At this rate we will have:
Nov 11, 1000+ daily new cases
Nov 28, 2000+ daily new cases
Dec 15, 4000+ daily new cases
and so on.

Cases beget hospitalizations and deaths.
1/
It's too late for soft measures.
We need strong decisive measures + $$ support for businesses and people ASAP, in order to substantially *reduce the scale* of the upcoming disaster.

It takes 3-4 weeks from the shutdown date till the peak in cases and hospitalizations.

2/
If we shut down today, we will still reach at least 1600-2000 daily new cases, before numbers start to decrease.

If we shut down on Nov 15, we will reach 3000+ daily new cases before numbers start to decrease.

Either we control the virus, or the virus controls us.

3/
Read 6 tweets
Malgorzata (Gosia) Gasperowicz Profile picture
16 Oct
AB: Daily new cases grow exponentially since May 25.

Doubling time calculated for May 25 - Oct 15 is:
50 days (~7 weeks) (95% CI [45, 57])

It can flip to a faster rate at *any time*
It cannot slow down by itself.

Even at a current rate it's bad;
It means:
....
1/
It means, that even if the growth won't speed up, we will have:
500 daily new cases by Dec 03
1000 daily new cases by Jan 21

and so on..., doubling every 7 weeks.

2/
Persistent exponential growth means that the virus spread is not under control.

It's not a "Slow Burn"* or a "Dance", oscillating around some fixed number.
This is a constant growth.
Slowish, yet persistent.

(*Disclaimer: I'm against Slow Burn as a goal. I'm for #ZeroCovid)
3/
Read 6 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Like this author's thread?

Get email notifications when new thread is out from this Author!

Check out other threads from this Author!

Read all threads by @GosiaGasperoPhD