Tweet from Summer, but very relevant now.

Over next days AB can choose to:

A) aim for elimination & stop community transmission within few weeks, or

B) keep struggling (bonus: new variant = more struggle)

1/

With strict measures AB can stop community transmission by late February.
Then protect zero community transmission status w/ travel control and cases monitoring.


2/
To eliminate COVID in AB:
Keep stringent measures in place (get to and keep R=0.6) till we get to zero daily new cases.
Don't reopen in-person classes before we get to zero (that is till ~late February)

3 a/
... Shield AB from the new, more transmissible variant: immediately implement mandatory quarantine for ALL incoming travellers.

3b/
On dangers of the new variant:
Why 50% more transmissible variant is worse than 50% more deadly variant 👇

4/
Why vaccines alone might not get us to herd immunity 👇
Part 1 - Math

5/
ccdd.hsph.harvard.edu/2020/12/17/cov…
Why vaccines alone might not get us to herd immunity 👇
Part 2 - Immunology

(Florian Krammer's mega twittorial. tweets 118-121)
6/
Why vaccines alone ... 👇
Part 3 - Time needed to administer vaccines

7/
We need vaccines to quickly reduce illnesses and deaths.

But for elimination we have to primarily rely on non-pharmaceutical interventions and supplement them w/ vaccines, not the other way round.

8/
Why elimination is the best strategy 👇

For every country:

9/
bmj.com/content/371/bm…
Why elimination is the best strategy 👇

For Canada:

Report by @GlobalCanadaOrg and @RobertGreenhill

10/
global-canada.org/wp-content/upl…
Why elimination is the best strategy 👇

For Alberta:

Article by @KarlParkinson7

11/
karljparkinson.medium.com/alberta-needs-…
Excellent source of info about elimination strategy:
@endCOVID19

12/
endcoronavirus.org

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Malgorzata (Gosia) Gasperowicz

Malgorzata (Gosia) Gasperowicz Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @GosiaGasperoPhD

20 Dec 20
The meaning of R

Sustained R, starting from 1,600 daily new cases (dnc):

R=0.97 ➡️ halving time (ht)=3 months ➡️ 1,020 dnc in 2 months
R=0.8 ➡️ ht=12.4 days ➡️ 60 dnc in 2 months, zero in 4.5 months
R=0.6 ➡️ ht=5.4 days ➡️ ZERO dnc in *2 months*

1/
The meaning of R

Sustained R, starting from 1,600 daily new cases,

Toll of the first 2 months:

R=0.97 ➡️ 76,300 cases ➡️ 1,220 deaths
R=0.8 ➡️ 28,400 cases ➡️ 450 deaths
R=0.6 ➡️ 13,300 cases ➡️ 210 deaths

2/
Toll of subsequent months (after the first 2 months):

R=0.97 : a lot of cases & deaths, high risk of exponential surge & next lockdown
R=0.8 : some cases and deaths, high risk of exponential surge & next lockdown
R=0.6 : NOTHING

3/
Read 7 tweets
6 Dec 20
YYC, Alberta
If we implement a *supported lockdown* this Monday, Dec 7, Calgary can have:

Dec 27, 225 daily new cases (not 1,350)
Feb 05, *0* daily new cases (not 4,600)

#COVIDzero
Tell it to MLAs today. Ask them to act.
Contact info:
assembly.ab.ca/members/member…

1/
Postponing a supported lockdown enables the virus to kill people.
1,000 cases corresponds to 16 deaths.

2/
If we get to #COVIDzero in Calgary by early February, then keep wiping with vaccine* and TTI, we have high chances to have Stampede 2021.

*AH anticipation: 10% AB vaccinated by end of March, 40% by September.
That's not enough to stop the spread before July by vaccine only.
Read 4 tweets
2 Dec 20
YYC NE has an extremely high new case rate (100/100 K, growing exponentially). It has a super fast doubling time of new daily cases: 1.5 weeks (AB 2.5 weeks).

Everywhere in the world, frontline & essential workers are the primary victims of insufficient pandemic responses.

1/
Calgary NE:
Daily new cases grow exponentially
Doubling time is: 1.5 weeks

At this rate, in NE, there will be:

Dec 15, 520 daily new cases
Dec 26, 1025 daily new cases
Jan 01, 1480 daily new cases

We need a sharp U-turn *now*

2/
Every day of *not implementing* supported lockdown in AB costs lives 👇

3/
Read 5 tweets
30 Nov 20
Alberta: COVID Hospitalizations grow exponentially.
Doubling every 2.5 weeks

At this rate there will have:

On X-mas, 1,190 COVID patients in hospitals
On New Year, 1,560 COVID patients in hospitals

We don't know how to clone doctors and nurses

1/
2/
With current half-measures: cases, hospitalizations and deaths will keep growing

We are in a disaster, which grows every day

The only proven way to do a U-turn is a lockdown with a strong financial support for individuals, businesses and vulnerable ppl
Read 5 tweets
28 Nov 20
Alberta:

70 ICU beds set for COVID patients are FULL

ICU hospitalizations doubling time is 2–2.5 weeks

Overflow beds are not a solution bc:

1) Beds don’t cure ppl. HCWs cure ppl. We can’t clone HCWs

2) 23% of ICU COVID patients die, in spite of everything HCWs do

3)...

1/
...
3) At the current rate so many ICU COVID beds will be full soon (% of initial capacity):

Dec 25, 280-450 beds (400% - 640%)
Jan 01, 370-650 beds (530% - 930%)

We need a sharp U-turn ASAP

2/
With current half-measures, cases, hospitalizations and deaths will keep growing

We are in a disaster, which grows every day

The only proven way to do a U-turn is a lockdown with a strong financial support for individuals, businesses and vulnerable ppl

Read 4 tweets
20 Nov 20
Alberta: COVID-19 spreads exponentially

Daily new cases doubling time is ~ 3 weeks
We are already at a *1,000* daily

At this rate we will have:

Dec 08, 2200+ daily new cases
Dec 28, 4400+ daily new cases
Jan 17, 8800+ daily new cases

"The Nightmare for Christmas"

1/
Cases beget hospitalizations and deaths.

Hospitalizations doubling time is ~2.5 weeks

2/
ICU hospitalizations doubling time is < 2 weeks.

We will likely reach 100% capacity in less than a week.

3/
Read 9 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!