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Malgorzata (Gosia) Gasperowicz Profile picture
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30 Dec 20, 13 tweets, 4 min read
Tweet from Summer, but very relevant now.

Over next days AB can choose to:

A) aim for elimination & stop community transmission within few weeks, or

B) keep struggling (bonus: new variant = more struggle)

1/
With strict measures AB can stop community transmission by late February.
Then protect zero community transmission status w/ travel control and cases monitoring.


2/
To eliminate COVID in AB:
Keep stringent measures in place (get to and keep R=0.6) till we get to zero daily new cases.
Don't reopen in-person classes before we get to zero (that is till ~late February)

3 a/
... Shield AB from the new, more transmissible variant: immediately implement mandatory quarantine for ALL incoming travellers.

3b/
On dangers of the new variant:
Why 50% more transmissible variant is worse than 50% more deadly variant 👇

4/
Why vaccines alone might not get us to herd immunity 👇
Part 1 - Math

5/
 ccdd.hsph.harvard.edu/2020/12/17/cov…
Why vaccines alone might not get us to herd immunity 👇
Part 2 - Immunology

(Florian Krammer's mega twittorial. tweets 118-121)
6/
Why vaccines alone ... 👇
Part 3 - Time needed to administer vaccines

7/
We need vaccines to quickly reduce illnesses and deaths.

But for elimination we have to primarily rely on non-pharmaceutical interventions and supplement them w/ vaccines, not the other way round.

8/
Why elimination is the best strategy 👇

For every country:

9/
 bmj.com/content/371/bm…
Why elimination is the best strategy 👇

For Canada:

Report by @GlobalCanadaOrg and @RobertGreenhill

10/
 global-canada.org/wp-content/upl…
Why elimination is the best strategy 👇

For Alberta:

Article by @KarlParkinson7

11/
 karljparkinson.medium.com/alberta-needs-…
Excellent source of info about elimination strategy:
@endCOVID19

12/
 endcoronavirus.org

• • •

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More from @GosiaGasperoPhD

Malgorzata (Gosia) Gasperowicz Profile picture
20 Dec 20
The meaning of R

Sustained R, starting from 1,600 daily new cases (dnc):

R=0.97 ➡️ halving time (ht)=3 months ➡️ 1,020 dnc in 2 months
R=0.8 ➡️ ht=12.4 days ➡️ 60 dnc in 2 months, zero in 4.5 months
R=0.6 ➡️ ht=5.4 days ➡️ ZERO dnc in *2 months*

1/
The meaning of R

Sustained R, starting from 1,600 daily new cases,

Toll of the first 2 months:

R=0.97 ➡️ 76,300 cases ➡️ 1,220 deaths
R=0.8 ➡️ 28,400 cases ➡️ 450 deaths
R=0.6 ➡️ 13,300 cases ➡️ 210 deaths

2/
Toll of subsequent months (after the first 2 months):

R=0.97 : a lot of cases & deaths, high risk of exponential surge & next lockdown
R=0.8 : some cases and deaths, high risk of exponential surge & next lockdown
R=0.6 : NOTHING

3/
Read 7 tweets
Malgorzata (Gosia) Gasperowicz Profile picture
6 Dec 20
YYC, Alberta
If we implement a *supported lockdown* this Monday, Dec 7, Calgary can have:

Dec 27, 225 daily new cases (not 1,350)
Feb 05, *0* daily new cases (not 4,600)

#COVIDzero
Tell it to MLAs today. Ask them to act.
Contact info:
assembly.ab.ca/members/member…

1/
Postponing a supported lockdown enables the virus to kill people.
1,000 cases corresponds to 16 deaths.

2/
If we get to #COVIDzero in Calgary by early February, then keep wiping with vaccine* and TTI, we have high chances to have Stampede 2021.

*AH anticipation: 10% AB vaccinated by end of March, 40% by September.
That's not enough to stop the spread before July by vaccine only.
Read 4 tweets
Malgorzata (Gosia) Gasperowicz Profile picture
2 Dec 20
YYC NE has an extremely high new case rate (100/100 K, growing exponentially). It has a super fast doubling time of new daily cases: 1.5 weeks (AB 2.5 weeks).

Everywhere in the world, frontline & essential workers are the primary victims of insufficient pandemic responses.

1/
Calgary NE:
Daily new cases grow exponentially
Doubling time is: 1.5 weeks

At this rate, in NE, there will be:

Dec 15, 520 daily new cases
Dec 26, 1025 daily new cases
Jan 01, 1480 daily new cases

We need a sharp U-turn *now*

2/
Every day of *not implementing* supported lockdown in AB costs lives 👇

3/
Read 5 tweets
Malgorzata (Gosia) Gasperowicz Profile picture
30 Nov 20
Alberta: COVID Hospitalizations grow exponentially.
Doubling every 2.5 weeks

At this rate there will have:

On X-mas, 1,190 COVID patients in hospitals
On New Year, 1,560 COVID patients in hospitals

We don't know how to clone doctors and nurses

1/
2/
With current half-measures: cases, hospitalizations and deaths will keep growing

We are in a disaster, which grows every day

The only proven way to do a U-turn is a lockdown with a strong financial support for individuals, businesses and vulnerable ppl
Read 5 tweets
Malgorzata (Gosia) Gasperowicz Profile picture
28 Nov 20
Alberta:

70 ICU beds set for COVID patients are FULL

ICU hospitalizations doubling time is 2–2.5 weeks

Overflow beds are not a solution bc:

1) Beds don’t cure ppl. HCWs cure ppl. We can’t clone HCWs

2) 23% of ICU COVID patients die, in spite of everything HCWs do

3)...

1/
...
3) At the current rate so many ICU COVID beds will be full soon (% of initial capacity):

Dec 25, 280-450 beds (400% - 640%)
Jan 01, 370-650 beds (530% - 930%)

We need a sharp U-turn ASAP

2/
With current half-measures, cases, hospitalizations and deaths will keep growing

We are in a disaster, which grows every day

The only proven way to do a U-turn is a lockdown with a strong financial support for individuals, businesses and vulnerable ppl

Read 4 tweets
Malgorzata (Gosia) Gasperowicz Profile picture
20 Nov 20
Alberta: COVID-19 spreads exponentially

Daily new cases doubling time is ~ 3 weeks
We are already at a *1,000* daily

At this rate we will have:

Dec 08, 2200+ daily new cases
Dec 28, 4400+ daily new cases
Jan 17, 8800+ daily new cases

"The Nightmare for Christmas"

1/
Cases beget hospitalizations and deaths.

Hospitalizations doubling time is ~2.5 weeks

2/
ICU hospitalizations doubling time is < 2 weeks.

We will likely reach 100% capacity in less than a week.

3/
Read 9 tweets

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