Feb 12

1 of every 39 #Canadians with #COVID19 has died since Mar 2020

1 in 57 BC
1 in 73 AB
1 in 75 SK
1 in 35 MB
1 in 43 ON
1 in 27 QC

1 of every 5 Cdns w/ C19 in long-term care & retirement homes has died

LAST 28 DAYS: 3,547 deaths, 10,081 LTC/RH cases, 2,029 LTC/RH deaths
Feb 12

-More #Canadians have died of #COVID19 than died each year during 1918-1920 "Spanish" flu

-COVID-19 is in top 10 largest mortality events in Cdn history

-Last 28 days: 3,547 Canadians died of C19

-If every week is like this week, 3,100 Cdns may die in next 28 days
Feb 12

1 of every 5 #Canadians with #COVID19 in long-term/ personal care & retirement homes has died since March 2020

1 in 6 BC
1 in 9 AB
1 in 5 SK
1 in 5 MB
1 in 7 ON
1 in 4 QC

There are 10,081 LTC/RH cases in last 28 days

We MUST vaccinate everyone in LTC & RHs NOW
Feb 12

Since March 2020

For every 1 Atlantic #Canadian who DIED of #COVID19
this many ppl died of C19 in other regions*

32 QC
12 ON
17 MB
8 SK
11 AB
7 BC
1 North
15 #Canada outside Atlantic

*after adjusting for population differences
Feb 12

#COVID19 #Canada DEATHS since March 2020

Table: Deaths/100K for individual provinces, peer high income countries w/ pop >20M, plus change last 7 days

Graphs
-Total deaths (mid top)
-Total deaths per 100K (mid bottom)
-Wkly rate of change in deaths (bottom right)
Feb 12

Since March 2020

For every 1 Atlantic #Canadian living in long-term care & retirement homes who DIED of #COVID19 this many people in LTC/RHs died of C19 in other regions*

32 QC
10 ON
12 MB
3 SK
9 AB
6 BC
0 North
13 #Canada outside Atlantic

*adjusted for pop differences
Feb 12

#COVID19 #Canada long-term care & retirement home DEATHS since March 2020

Tables: Per capita deaths, % total deaths in LTC/RH, rates of change last 7 days

Graphs:
-Total & per capita values (L)
-% total deaths in LTC/RH (R top)
-Wkly rate of change (R bottom)
Feb 12

Since March 2020

For every 1 Atlantic #Canadian diagnosed with #COVID19
this many people were diagnosed in other regions*

21 QC
13 ON
15 MB
14 SK
19 AB
9 BC
2 North
14 #Canada outside Atlantic

*adjusted for population differences
Feb 12

#COVID19 #Canada CASES since March 2020

Table: Cases/100K for individual provinces, peer high income countries w/ pop >20M, plus change last 7 days

Graphs
-Total cases (mid top)
-Total cases per 100K (mid bottom)
-Wkly rate of change in cases (bottom right)
Feb 12

Since March 2020

For every 1 Atlantic #Canadian in long-term care & retirement homes diagnosed with #COVID19, this many people in LTC/RHs were diagnosed in other regions*

15 QC
8 ON
7 MB
2 SK
9 AB
4 BC
0 North
8 #Canada outside Atlantic

*adjusted for pop differences
Feb 12

#COVID19 #Canada long-term care & retirement home CASES since March 2020

Tables: Per capita cases, % total cases in LTC/RH, rates of change last 7 days

Graphs:
-Total & per capita values (L)
-% total cases in LTC/RH (R top)
-Wkly rate of change (R bottom)
Feb 12

WHAT TO WATCH FOR:
-Weekly rate of change in CASES

WHY?

This shows:
1) if our efforts over the last month are helping
2) when there are warning signs that epidemic may be speeding up again.
Feb 12

WHAT TO WATCH FOR:
-Weekly rate of change in HOSPITALIZATIONS

WHY?

This shows:
1) if our efforts over the last month are helping
2) when there are warning signs that hospitalizations may be speeding up again.
Feb 12

WHAT TO WATCH FOR:
-Weekly rate of change in DEATHS

WHY?

Shows:
1) if efforts ONE MONTH AGO helped
2) warning clues if deaths may be speeding up

ALSO: Rates of change in deaths help us estimate effects of measures such as vaccination in LTC/RHs, where reporting is slow
Sources of collated official data (in addition to provincial sites), with huge thanks:

@NoLore
@RyersonNIA
@covid_canada
@OurWorldInData

Thank you to everyone protecting themselves & others by choosing vaccination, and those caring for the most vulnerable.

/end

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More from @MoriartyLab

11 Feb
Just sitting here, entering #COVID19 #Canada data, wondering if I've missed any recent expressions of concern from certain premiers about the wisdom of recent re-opening decisions.

Oh, I don't know, maybe from premiers of QC, ON, MB, SK?

Why you ask?

Well.....
@roussin_brent is looking forward to some light re-opening, when MB still has the highest per capita rate of #COVID19 hospitalizations in the country, a record held for months.

But look, SK might soon catch up. Image
Speaking of SK, @PremierScottMoe must be proud not only that SK is about to overtake MB for highest #COVID19 hospitalizations per capita in #Canada, but that SK is also just about to pass MB for total per capita cases in the epidemic.

Yes, that's since Feb 2020, not 2021. Image
Read 6 tweets
6 Feb
Feb 5

1 of every 39 #Canadians with #COVID19 has died since March 2020

1 in 56 BC
1 in 74 AB
1 in 75 SK
1 in 36 MB
1 in 43 ON
1 in 27 QC

1 of every 5 Cdns w/ C19 in long-term, personal care & retirement homes has died

There are 14,4457 LTC cases in last 28 days ⬇️

🧵
I'm simplifying these threads & will now show sliding window views of last 3 months of cumulative data for whole epidemic (except for province-specific summaries at end).

Rate of change graphs are provided for preceding 28 days to give a better sense of most recent dynamics.
Please note that though it's tempting to speculate about recent trends for long-term/personal care & retirement homes, reporting for this sector is VERY delayed & is almost always incomplete for preceding 3-4 weeks. The period of uncertainty is now highlighted in gray in graphs.
Read 25 tweets
30 Jan
Jan 29

Weekly summary #COVID19 #Canada

COMPARISONS:
Provinces, high income peer countries w/ pop >20M

FOCUS:
All deaths, cases, plus focus on long-term care & retirement homes

THREAD OUTLINE
2-12: Data, whole epidemic
13-23: Wave 2
24-33: Last 28d, next 28d
34: Methods

/1
Jan 29

1 of every 39 #Canadians with #COVID19 has died since Feb

1 in 56 in BC
1 in 76 in AB
1 in 80 in SK
1 in 36 in MB
1 in 44 in ON
1 in 27 in QC

1 of every 5 Cdns w/ C19 in long-term, personal care & retirement homes has died

There are 17,437 LTC cases in last 28 days

/2
Jan 29

More #Canadians have now died of #COVID19 than died each year during the 1918-1920 "Spanish" flu

COVID-19 is in top 10 largest mortality events in Canadian history.

4,179 Canadians died of COVID-19 in the last 28 days.

Nearly 6,200 may die in the next 28 days.

/3
Read 33 tweets
16 Jan
Jan 15

1 of every 39 #Canadians with #COVID19 has died since Feb

1 in 57 in BC
1 in 82 in AB
1 in 94 in SK
1 in 36 in MB
1 in 44 in ON
1 in 27 in QC

1 of every 5 Cdns with C19 in long-term, personal care & retirement homes has died

There are 15,690 LTC cases in last 28 days
Jan 15

#COVID19 is in top 10 largest mortality events in #Canadian history.

3,765 Cdns died of C19 in the last 28 days.

Nearly 7,000 may die in the next 28 days.

We need the #CanadianShield @csc_canada_
Jan 15

#COVID19 #Canada

Total deaths 17,773

LAST 28 DAYS
🔹All deaths: 3,765
🔹Long-term care/retirement home cases: 15,690
🔹LTC/RH deaths: 2,331

NEXT 28 DAYS (estimate)
🔹All deaths: 6,801
🔹LTC/RH cases: 37,078
🔹LTC/RH deaths fr new cases next 28d: 4,658

#VaccinateLTCNow
Read 26 tweets
15 Jan
#Canadian #medtwitter

Many are feeling conflicted about posting vaccine selfies b/c of very real & important equity concerns.

But we cannot underestimate how important it is for people to see that we know the vaccines are safe & how life-changing it is to receive them.
I actually think we should keep posting these, but perhaps we can say that we'll only do this if simultaneously we advocate hard for transparent data reporting on progress on vaccination in vulnerable sectors, and then to improve this progress.
For example, here's QC is reporting daily on vaccination progress in high priority vulnerable sectors (example: cdn-contenu.quebec.ca/cdn-contenu/sa…). It's unacceptable that other provinces aren't doing this, b/c it allows them to hide progress on the most critical, widely accepted goals.
Read 14 tweets
14 Jan
#Canadian healthcare providers & scientists,

Do you want to be a resource supporting people with #COVID19 vaccine safety questions?

@COVID_19_Canada is running Zoom sessions from 8-10 nightly where volunteer scientists, physicians, pharmacists talk w/ anyone who drops in.

🧵
We're well-staffed with volunteers for these nightly sessions, which are primarily for people working & linked to the LTC community.

However, at the request of unions & homes we're expanding to do scheduled sessions at other times of day.
Ultimately, we'd like to make drop-in & scheduled sessions available through much of day 7 days/wk & in multiple languages. Plus, expand to support ppl beyond LTC community.

We're not ready to scale up that big just yet, but I want to start signing up volunteers to help.
Read 14 tweets

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