Thread by @MoriartyLab

Feb 5

1 of every 39 #Canadians with #COVID19 has died since March 2020

1 in 56 BC
1 in 74 AB
1 in 75 SK
1 in 36 MB
1 in 43 ON
1 in 27 QC

1 of every 5 Cdns w/ C19 in long-term, personal care & retirement homes has died

There are 14,4457 LTC cases in last 28 days ⬇️

🧵

I'm simplifying these threads & will now show sliding window views of last 3 months of cumulative data for whole epidemic (except for province-specific summaries at end).

Rate of change graphs are provided for preceding 28 days to give a better sense of most recent dynamics.

Please note that though it's tempting to speculate about recent trends for long-term/personal care & retirement homes, reporting for this sector is VERY delayed & is almost always incomplete for preceding 3-4 weeks. The period of uncertainty is now highlighted in gray in graphs.

We all want to be seeing declines in LTC/RH cases & deaths following vaccination & most recent rounds of restrictions.

However, I don't think we can be confident for another 2 wks-ish about declines we're seeing in some provinces.

We need to keep yelling #VaccinateLTCNow.

Feb 5

More #Canadians have died of #COVID19 than died each year during the 1918-1920 "Spanish" flu.

COVID-19 is in top 10 largest mortality events in Cdn history.

3,995 Canadians died of COVID-19 in the last 28 days.

If every day is like Feb 5, 4,500 may die in next 28 days.

Feb 5

1 of every 5 #Canadians with #COVID19 in long-term/ personal care & retirement homes has died since March 2020

1 in 6 BC
1 in 9 AB
1 in 5 SK
1 in 5 MB
1 in 7 ON
1 in 4 QC

There are 14,445 LTC cases last 28 days

We MUST vaccinate everyone in LTC & RHs NOW

Feb 5

Since March 2020

For every 1 Atlantic #Canadian who DIED of #COVID19
this many ppl died of C19 in other regions

33 QC
12 ON
17 MB
8 SK
11 AB
7 BC
1 North

For every 1 Atlantic Cdn who died of C19 in LTC/RH,
14 died of C19 in LTC in rest of #Canada

We need @csc_canada_

Feb 5

#COVID19 #Canada DEATHS since March 2020

Table: Per capita deaths for individual provinces, peer high income countries w/ pop >20M, plus change last 7 days

Graphs
🔹Total deaths (mid top)
🔹Total deaths per 100K (mid bottom)
🔹Wkly rate of change in deaths (bottom right)

Feb 5

Since March 2020

For every 1 Atlantic #Canadian living in long-term/ personal care & retirement homes who DIED of #COVID19
this many people in LTC/RHs died of C19 in other regions

33 QC
11 ON
12 MB
4 SK
9 AB
6 BC
0 North
143 #Canada outside Atlantic

*pop-adjusted ratios

correction....14 Canada outside Atlantic, not 143

Feb 5

#COVID19 #Canada long-term care & retirement home DEATHS since March 2020

Tables: Per capita deaths, % total deaths in LTC/RH, rates of change last 7 days

Graphs:
🔹Total & per capita values (L)
🔹% total deaths in LTC/RH (R top)
🔹Wkly rate of change (R bottom)

Feb 5

Since March 2020

For every 1 Atlantic #Canadian with #COVID19
this many ppl were diagnosed in other regions

22 QC
14 ON
16 MB
15 SK
20 AB
10 BC
2 North

For every 1 Atlantic Cdn w/ C19 in LTC/RHs, 9 contracted C19 in homes in rest of #Canada

*population-adjusted ratios

Feb 5

#COVID19 #Canada CASES since March 2020

Table: Per capita cases for individual provinces, peer high income countries w/ pop >20M, plus change last 7 days

Graphs
🔹Total cases (mid top)
🔹Total cases per 100K (mid bottom)
🔹Wkly rate of change in cases (bottom right)

Feb 5

#COVID19 #Canada long-term care & retirement home CASES since March 2020

Tables: Per capita cases, % total cases in LTC/RH, rates of change last 7 days

Graphs:
🔹Total & per capita values (L)
🔹% total cases in LTC/RH (R top)
🔹Wkly rate of change (R bottom)

Feb 5

#COVID19 #Canada

Total deaths 20,625
Total LTC/RH deaths 15,184

LAST 28 DAYS
🔹All deaths: 3,995
🔹LTC/RH cases: 14,445
🔹LTC/RH deaths: 2,352

NEXT 28 DAYS (estimate)
🔹All deaths: 4,500
🔹LTC/RH cases: 14,000
🔹LTC/RH deaths fr new cases next 28d: 1,800

Feb 5

#COVID19 #Alberta

Total deaths 1,693
Total LTC/RH deaths 1,131

LAST 28 DAYS
🔹All deaths: 476
🔹LTC/RH cases: 2,505
🔹LTC/RH deaths: 346

NEXT 28 DAYS (estimate)
🔹All deaths: 400
🔹LTC/RH cases: 2,000
🔹LTC/RH deaths fr new cases next 28d: 200

Feb 5

#COVID19 Atlantic #Canada

Total deaths 87
Total LTC/RH deaths 70

LAST 28 DAYS
🔹All deaths: 9
🔹LTC/RH cases: 68
🔹LTC/RH deaths: 11

NEXT 28 DAYS (estimate)
🔹All deaths: 25
🔹LTC/RH cases: 125
🔹LTC/RH deaths fr new cases next 28d: 2

Feb 5

#COVID19 #BritishColumbia

Total deaths 1,246
Total LTC/RH deaths 864

LAST 28 DAYS
🔹All deaths: 275
🔹LTC/RH cases: 562
🔹LTC/RH deaths: 166

NEXT 28 DAYS (estimate)
🔹All deaths: 300
🔹LTC/RH cases: 200
🔹LTC/RH deaths fr new cases next 28d: 30

Feb 5

#COVID19 #Manitoba

Total deaths 838
Total LTC/RH deaths 489

LAST 28 DAYS
🔹All deaths: 121
🔹LTC/RH cases: 351
🔹LTC/RH deaths: 79

NEXT 28 DAYS (estimate)
🔹All deaths: 100
🔹LTC/RH cases: 150
🔹LTC/RH deaths fr new cases next 28d: 30

Feb 5

#COVID19 #Yukon #NWT #Nunavut (the North)
Total deaths 3
Total LTC/RH deaths 0

LAST 28 DAYS
🔹All deaths: 0
🔹LTC/RH cases: 0
🔹LTC/RH deaths: 0

NEXT 28 DAYS (estimate)
🔹All deaths: 0
🔹LTC/RH cases: 0
🔹LTC/RH deaths fr new cases next 28d: 0

Feb 5

#COVID19 #Ontario

Total deaths 6,453
Total LTC/RH deaths 4,425

LAST 28 DAYS
🔹All deaths: 1,548
🔹LTC/RH cases: 6,282
🔹LTC/RH deaths: 913

NEXT 28 DAYS (estimate)
🔹All deaths: 2,000
🔹LTC/RH cases: 4,500
🔹LTC/RH deaths fr new cases next 28d: 500

Feb 5

#COVID19 #Quebec

Total deaths 9,973
Total LTC/RH deaths 8,086

LAST 28 DAYS
🔹All deaths: 1,411
🔹LTC/RH cases: 4,464
🔹LTC/RH deaths: 769

NEXT 28 DAYS (estimate)
🔹All deaths: 1,500
🔹LTC/RH cases: 6,600
🔹LTC/RH deaths fr new cases next 28d: 900

Feb 5

#COVID19 #Saskatchewan

Total deaths 332
Total LTC/RH deaths 119

LAST 28 DAYS
🔹All deaths: 155
🔹LTC/RH cases: 213
🔹LTC/RH deaths: 68

NEXT 28 DAYS (estimate)
🔹All deaths: 350
🔹LTC/RH cases: 200
🔹LTC/RH deaths fr new cases next 28d: 30

Sources of collated official data (in addition to provincial sites), with huge thanks:

@NoLore
@RyersonNIA
@covid_canada
@OurWorldInData

Thank you to everyone protecting themselves & others by choosing vaccination, and those caring for the most vulnerable.

/end

correction: 14,457 LTC cases in last 28 days