Jon Worth Profile picture
15 Feb, 11 tweets, 3 min read
As arguments about the interplay between the NI Protocol and TCA rumble on, it's time for a kind of typology of solutions

These are:
1️⃣ Turn-a-blind-eye
2️⃣ All-UK
3️⃣ Build-the-infrastructure

A quick 🧵
1️⃣ Turn-a-blind-eye

Example:
"Gove asks EU for extension of NI Protocol grace periods to 2023"
uk.news.yahoo.com/gove-asks-eu-e…

Basically everything agreed is too hard to do, grace periods to be extended long beyond April

Leads to legal uncertainty
Typical quote:
Michael Gove "It does not threaten the integrity of the EU single market to have bulbs ordered from a wholesaler in Scotland or England which will then be planted in a garden in Belfast or Ballymena."
Who wants it ✅
- 🇬🇧 Government (it avoids them having to do anything)
- Northern Irish unionists

Who doesn't like it ❌
- 🇪🇺 (due to legal uncertainty)
2️⃣ All-UK

Example:
"Deal for common EU-UK food safety standards ‘on the table,’ Šefčovič says"
politico.eu/article/deal-f…

Sort out a Brexit problem for *the whole of the UK*, thereby helping Northern Ireland too

e.g. SPS, pet passports
Typical quote:
Stephen Farry MP (Alliance Party) "I am calling on the UK Government to urgently seek a UK-EU veterinary agreement."
Who wants it ✅
- Northern Irish pragmatists

Who could live with it
- 🇪🇺 (it's admin hassle, but works)

Who doesn't like it ❌
- 🇬🇧 Government (they'd have to abandon their sovereignty at all costs Brexit)
3️⃣ Build-the-infrastructure

Example:
"Gove assures EU the UK will speedily build checkpoints at four NI ports"
newsletter.co.uk/news/politics/…

Full checks on imports into NI only due from 1 April - extra infrastructure needed to make sure this happens
Typical quote:
Maroš Šefčovič (in letter to Gove 10.2.2021): "The Border Control Posts (BCPs) or Entry Posts are not yet fully operational. Official controls at the BCPs are currently not performed in compliance with the Withdrawal Agreement Protocol..."
Who wants it ✅
- 🇪🇺

Who doesn't like it ❌
- Northern Ireland Unionists (means border in the Irish Sea)
- 🇬🇧 Government (there are high costs to doing it)
It is not correct to say there are no solutions to the problems posed by the NI Protocol and TCA

But each sort of solution is opposed by at least one of the main players

cc. @KeohaneDan

/ends

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More from @jonworth

15 Feb
Is there a list of *all* the infra projects needed to make #Deutschlandtakt by 2030 a reality? I am struggling a bit... Do you know @Koelschlenny @elba013 @vorortanleiter @Schienenallianz @bladewing678 ?
There's a huge list here:
deutschlandtakt.de/news-und-downl…

But these are surely not all *necessary* (although they're all being planned)
This explains why new infra is needed, but doesn't say *what* exactly
allianz-pro-schiene.de/themen/infrast…

Bundesverkehrswegeplan 2030 has a load more projects, but again no clarity
bvwp-projekte.de/map_railroad_2…
Read 6 tweets
12 Feb
This tweet about night trains in 🇫🇷 gained quite some traction this morning

And sure, night trains are *good*

But we need to be a little more clear headed than that

A 🧵

First of all, night trains only really make sense for routes that most people would not try to accomplish in the daytime by 🚅

Paris-Brive, Paris-Clermont F, Lyon-Toulouse are all under 5 hours by daytime train. These will not work as night train connections
Second, that you *could* theoretically run a train at night does not necessarily mean you should

Paris-Albi for example is 7 hours daytime train, because the infra is lousy. And you can drive it faster
Read 12 tweets
11 Feb
First they came for the 🐟

And John Redwood said the 🇬🇧 fishing industry would adjust
Then they came for the 🐖 farmers and 🐷 exports

And they said don't worry, it's just teething problems
Next they came for the 🦪 exporters

And there the Minister wrote a letter saying 🇪🇺 was wrong, when his officials knew 🇪🇺 was right
Read 13 tweets
8 Feb
I've been pointed towards this by @hanskundnani by @MaryFitzger - entitled "What does it mean to be “pro-European” today?" While there is something to it, I think it mixes up different terms, and hence it's not quite right... This 🧵 will explain

newstatesman.com/world/2021/02/…

1/13
I am also of course aware the title might not be Hans's choice...

The first issue is a basic one: to be a European, or to be a pro-European, are not - in my view - the same things

2/13
I will happily call myself a European, but not a pro-European (although plenty would describe *me* as the latter), because pro-European leads us to looking at the European Union in terms of more or less of it, rather than the individual policy outcomes it can produce

3/13
Read 13 tweets
6 Feb
A short 🧵 about Ursula von der Leyen - not least in response to critique of me labelling her a "second rate" politician earlier

"Second rate" is not quite right. Perhaps "politician with an unusual combination of strengths and weaknesses" is better.

1/10
The central issue is where and when vdL is a classic insider, and where she is an outsider

vdL is daughter of Ernst Albrecht, previously CDU Ministerpräsident in Lower Saxony - so in and of the party en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ernst_Alb…

2/10
Yet other aspects set her apart. She is a women in a male dominated party (Merkel of course being the other major exception), and a protestant in a party dominated by catholics. And she's a medical doctor in a political system dominated by lawyers.

3/10
Read 10 tweets
4 Feb
The replies to this tweet about import controls on goods coming into UK from EU from 1 July are really interesting

Here, once again, we're in a denial of reality phase of Brexit

And once again how to break that cycle is hard to see

🧵 1/10

🇪🇺 sees the reality of how checks are going to have to work - for both sides - and sees any slippage of timetables as a problem. If 🇬🇧 cannot meet the 1 July deadline - just like any Brexit deadline - the question is *WHEN* it can, not *IF* it can or will

2/10
🇬🇧 sees it differently. Complying is costly and onerous, requires IT systems, sites for checks, and training of staff - so it pays lip service to complying, but keeps it vague as to how and when it will comply - the Government does not actually *DO* the necessary

3/10
Read 10 tweets

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