1/ what grinds my gears - boomer bankers saying “oh bitcoin is a fad because my teenage son / cab driver / housekeeper was talking about it” like it’s 1929
it’s 2021
we have supercomputers in our pockets
high quality research is freely and readily available
2/ anyone with a smart phone, a little bit of cash in their checking account, and a desire to learn can start investing and can get exposure to a wide range of asset classes
they don’t need a dude in a suit to do it
they don’t need a 60/40 portfolio
3/ people are watching the dollar get obliterated and their portfolios get rekt
they’re tired of getting 0.1% interest while subsidizing the lifestyles of the people who laugh in their faces while robbing them
they’re taking charge of their portfolio to get out of the rat race
4/ do people make bad decisions? absolutely. but can you really sit here and say they’re better off doing nothing? absolutely not.
instead of judging people for wanting to invest and achieve financial security, let’s educate and provide accessible, easy to understand resources
5/ respectfully, your cabbie buying bitcoin isn’t a sign of the top for the market
it’s a sign that your time is coming to an end. a new era in personal finance and investing is beginning, and no suits will be needed thank you very much.
/fin
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1/ "the first structure that stood taller than the Great Pyramid of Giza was erected nearly four thousand years later.
it was a cathedral."
2/ "religion is not always about God.
someday scholars will study Federal Reserve papers with the academic detachment with which we study ancient papal bull.
at the time, it meant something.
but in hindsight, it was arrogant gibberish."
3/ "the fact that we keep thinking and talking in terms of the rational (economics) to explain the irrational (the divine) reflects the inability of our society to experience a reality exists between these two poles."
in this thread, i'll quickly outline key data points on #bitcoin sentiment, demand, market structure, and macro conditions
disclosure: i own BTC, obvi. this is not investment advice. DYOR. further disclosures at coinshares.com
2/ let's start w sentiment ☺️
first, investor sentiment:
✅ @blackrock filed to add BTC to 2 funds, CIO has 400k price target
✅ @RayDalio's Bridgewater reportedly issuing BTC research report
✅JPM, Goldman, and other bulge brackets initiated research coverage
3/ next, trader sentiment:
🚨 most important indicator is the forward curve
normally BTC futures trade in backwardation after a price drop.
this time, the curve stayed in contango following drop, meaning market makers are bullish 🐂📈 despite funding rate increase!
1/ let me give an example of how deals are going down in crypto VC - i’ll do a sample equity deal and token deal
deal 1: early stage company raising equity w/ ~$0 revenue in nov 2020
deal 2: token project bootstrapped by anon founders in oct 2020
let’s go 🧠🪐
2/ let’s start w the equity deal. early stage co that was just getting started w monetizing in november. will obfuscate all detail ofc - this is directional.
we negotiated terms to raise $2-3M at a sub $15M valuation w expected revs of $2-3M in 2021.
3/ in Dec, the co did over $1M. Jan to date, the co has beaten its entire 2021 revenue and profit goals.
they cut the round to strategic investors only + raised way less b/c they don’t need money, just help. firms got cut entirely or allocation dropped to $25k (too small!)