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Meltem Demirors

25 Jan, 9 tweets, 5 min read

1/ outlook for bitcoin: positive 🚀

in this thread, i'll quickly outline key data points on #bitcoin sentiment, demand, market structure, and macro conditions

disclosure: i own BTC, obvi. this is not investment advice. DYOR. further disclosures at coinshares.com

@blackrock

2/ let's start w sentiment ☺️

first, investor sentiment:
✅ @blackrock filed to add BTC to 2 funds, CIO has 400k price target
✅ @RayDalio's Bridgewater reportedly issuing BTC research report
✅JPM, Goldman, and other bulge brackets initiated research coverage

3/ next, trader sentiment:

🚨 most important indicator is the forward curve

normally BTC futures trade in backwardation after a price drop.

this time, the curve stayed in contango following drop, meaning market makers are bullish 🐂📈 despite funding rate increase!

@CoinSharesCo

4/ sentiment drives demand. so DEMAND next.

💸 let's talk fund flows

🤑 our research shows $359M of inflows into crypto products last week alone (coinshares.com/research/digit…)
🤑 our @CoinSharesCo @xbtprovider ETPs saw $200M trading volume on jan 4

coinshares.com/news/coinshare…

4/ let's talk bitcoin fundamentals

post-halving, 900 BTC mined per day, 312,000 this year.

👀 47M millionaires. 21M bitcoin.

🏆 collectibles selling at all time highs. bitcoin is the ultimate collector's item. (see meltdem.substack.com/p/bitcoin-is-a…)

@CoinSharesCo

5/ next, market structure (my fave)

@CoinSharesCo traded >$1.5B in first two weeks of 2021. have never seen this level of participation.

spot volumes skyrocketing - BTC/USD trade pair volume has ~7x'ed since August, institutions instead of crypto native firms (who use USDT)

@CMEGroup

6/ biggest market structure shift?

🕐 trading hours shifting from asia dominance to UK / US hours activity
💱 trade pair dominance shifting from USDT to USD
🚀 open interest (OI) on @CMEGroup bitcoin derivs >$1B, break new high

1 + 2 via @KaikoData -cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/1365…

7/ lastly, macro, cuz BTC doesn't exist in a vacuum and everything is relative

🖨️ dems + yellen to print print print - $2.5T stimmy

⚠️ unprecedented levels of chaos, mass-scale institutional failure all around

*bitcoin is an antidote to dysfunction*

finance.yahoo.com/video/bitcoin-…

@CoinSharesCo

8/ hopefully that provides perspective into how our team @CoinSharesCo thinks and works.

no price targets. no timelines. we use empirical evidence to build an actionable outlook.

being a #bitcoin bull is great. being a bitcoin bull who brings receipts is even better.

/ fin

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More from @Melt_Dem

Meltem Demirors

@Melt_Dem

24 Jan

1/ let me give an example of how deals are going down in crypto VC - i’ll do a sample equity deal and token deal

deal 1: early stage company raising equity w/ ~$0 revenue in nov 2020

deal 2: token project bootstrapped by anon founders in oct 2020

let’s go 🧠🪐

2/ let’s start w the equity deal. early stage co that was just getting started w monetizing in november. will obfuscate all detail ofc - this is directional.

we negotiated terms to raise $2-3M at a sub $15M valuation w expected revs of $2-3M in 2021.

3/ in Dec, the co did over $1M. Jan to date, the co has beaten its entire 2021 revenue and profit goals.

they cut the round to strategic investors only + raised way less b/c they don’t need money, just help. firms got cut entirely or allocation dropped to $25k (too small!)

Read 11 tweets

Meltem Demirors

@Melt_Dem

24 Jan

@CoinSharesCo

1/ crypto VC is going through an explosive 🧨 phase

there are big funds (>$500M AUM), a lot of small funds (<$50M AUM), and *tons* of prop firms + angels

i’ve done 15 deals in the last 3 months as an angel + small fund @CoinSharesCo VC.

observations + implications... 👇🏾

2/ the big firms need to deploy in size - $5M checks and up

a $250M fund could do a $5-10M deal every month for two years and still be under-allocated

and there aren’t enough companies raising series B / C / D rounds!!!

every deal i’ve done lately is under $50M valuation

3/ so we see firms competing to take down entire rounds.

a recent series A financing had two firms competing to take down the ENTIRE ROUND, and it eventually got upsized, a LOT.

if a company is putting up user acquisition / growth and a revenue story, it’s highly competitive

Read 11 tweets

Meltem Demirors

@Melt_Dem

18 Dec 20

1/ as evidenced by the recent corruption of all US systems, from gov't to corporate, securing networks is very difficult to do persistently.

bitcoin is a global telecommunications network that secures financial information.

mining is what keeps it secure.

a short thread!

2/ power in our world is changing

the world's largest and most powerful companies used to own, make, and finance physical inputs and things.

not anymore.

today's behemoths own, maintain, and manage digital networks. and they're bigger than most nation-states.

3/ in the coming decade, we will see a rapid proliferation of digital networks in the energy, compute and connectivity, and capital markets and finance world

as a result, nations will spend trillions of dollars on securing their data and access to global systems and networks

Read 17 tweets

Meltem Demirors

@Melt_Dem

9 Dec 20

1/ a quick thread on trading, investing, and managing your own psychology.

we've all had moments where hindsight gives us 20/20 vision into a trade, an investment, or deal.

*BUT* we're bad at incorporating these experiences into our future decision-making.

2/ there is not enough self-improvement or mental fitness training out there for our relationship with money 💸 it's a toxic relationship for many

but you can take more ownership and control of your financial decisions by adopting some simple self-improvement practices!

3/ start by keeping a journal of your investing decisions. document *why* you're doing what you're doing.

simple questions:
- why am i investing?
- what are my expectations of return? are they realistic?
- what is the timeline i plan to hold this?
- how am i sizing this?

Read 8 tweets

Meltem Demirors

@Melt_Dem

7 Dec 20

1/ the scale of FinTech in China is mind blowing

in one year, Ant Group originated loans to 500 million consumers

this is unsecured lending, done 100% via mobile, with Ant providing the origination and servicing and banks underwriting the loans

wsj.com/articles/jack-…

2/ Ant takes none of the capital risk, but takes 30-40% of the interest on the loans for providing the technology and servicing

capital is no longer a competitive advantage!

lending as a service is coming, and FAST

@CoinSharesCo

3/ as covered in our @CoinSharesCo #CryptoCreditSummit, the crypto ecosystem has figured out securitization and is now figuring out lending

while crypto lending today is 100% collateralized (backed by assets), unsecured lending is coming!

learn more: coinshares.com/insights/crypt…

Read 5 tweets

Meltem Demirors

@Melt_Dem

7 Sep 20

1/ quick thread on capital markets and their participants

who participates in in capital markets? finance pro's and traders are focused on optimizing the opportunity cost of capital and (1) preserving principal while (2) optimizing growth

you usually start with a goal in mind

2/ understanding the opportunity cost of capital is an important exercise, and one that changes constantly.

if you have 100 bitcoin, your opportunity cost of capital could be 8% income from lending it. or it could be the 20,000% APY you could earn by wrapping it and farming.

3/ opportunity cost of capital is a fancy way of saying "making your money work in the best way possible"

crypto is a $300B market. a lot of ppl who are fundamentally long (holding assets) want to make money while waiting for "number go up"

financialization is inevitable

Read 9 tweets

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