1/ let me give an example of how deals are going down in crypto VC - i’ll do a sample equity deal and token deal
deal 1: early stage company raising equity w/ ~$0 revenue in nov 2020
deal 2: token project bootstrapped by anon founders in oct 2020
let’s go 🧠🪐
2/ let’s start w the equity deal. early stage co that was just getting started w monetizing in november. will obfuscate all detail ofc - this is directional.
we negotiated terms to raise $2-3M at a sub $15M valuation w expected revs of $2-3M in 2021.
3/ in Dec, the co did over $1M. Jan to date, the co has beaten its entire 2021 revenue and profit goals.
they cut the round to strategic investors only + raised way less b/c they don’t need money, just help. firms got cut entirely or allocation dropped to $25k (too small!)
4/ we are seeing co’s becoming profitable and cutting their rounds entirely or taking very little capital.
it’s bloody out there. as a VC you are banking on $500k in a deal and u get $0. that’s raw. u need to deploy to get paid, but co’s don’t need your capital. good luck...
5/ ok deal 2 - a DeFi token deal w anon founders. product has been built and shipped, token has a top 500 market cap.
the team hasn’t sold any tokens and wanted to do a strategic round to raise $$$ to hire more devs and speed up strategy + ecosystem growth.
6/ spent a few weeks talking to funds. needed $1-2M to fund ops for 1-2 years since it was a really small team and some contractors.
many token funds and VCs wanted at minimum $1-2M allocations *each* + short lock ups on the tokens + preferential terms of some kind.
7/ ultimately most funds were cut and majority of checks are from angels and prop firms who are already adding value to the ecosystem.
the team will hire more FT devs w these funds but are wary of raising more capital from funds. it’s a headache and creates conflict.
8/ anyways these are intended to be illustrative of the shift in power dynamics in crypto VC
there are tons of angels, firms, and investors who add value before they ever write a check. i aspire to be one - sometimes i succeed and sometimes i don’t.
but the world is changing.
9/ everyone has capital. ppl for access to my deal flow and i simply can’t get enough allocation most of the time unless you bring more than money to the table.
the landscape is changing, and fast.
mega funds can’t compete. family office can’t even play. trad VC LOL!
10/ you have to be responsive. no two weeks to reply to email bs. 📫
you have to move fast. 💨
you have to be thoughtful and on the ball. 🧠
edge isn’t capital anymore. edge is YOU - YOUR network, YOUR + firm’s capabilities, YOUR time, YOUR energy.
its gonna get ugly 💩
11/ anyways just sharing cuz a lot of ppl think investors just allocate capital
i spend a lot of time working w companies and founders before and after an investment. i always have to invest in the relationship first!
founders - choose carefully 😍
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in this thread, i'll quickly outline key data points on #bitcoin sentiment, demand, market structure, and macro conditions
disclosure: i own BTC, obvi. this is not investment advice. DYOR. further disclosures at coinshares.com
2/ let's start w sentiment ☺️
first, investor sentiment:
✅ @blackrock filed to add BTC to 2 funds, CIO has 400k price target
✅ @RayDalio's Bridgewater reportedly issuing BTC research report
✅JPM, Goldman, and other bulge brackets initiated research coverage
3/ next, trader sentiment:
🚨 most important indicator is the forward curve
normally BTC futures trade in backwardation after a price drop.
this time, the curve stayed in contango following drop, meaning market makers are bullish 🐂📈 despite funding rate increase!
1/ as evidenced by the recent corruption of all US systems, from gov't to corporate, securing networks is very difficult to do persistently.
bitcoin is a global telecommunications network that secures financial information.
mining is what keeps it secure.
a short thread!
2/ power in our world is changing
the world's largest and most powerful companies used to own, make, and finance physical inputs and things.
not anymore.
today's behemoths own, maintain, and manage digital networks. and they're bigger than most nation-states.
3/ in the coming decade, we will see a rapid proliferation of digital networks in the energy, compute and connectivity, and capital markets and finance world
as a result, nations will spend trillions of dollars on securing their data and access to global systems and networks
1/ a quick thread on trading, investing, and managing your own psychology.
we've all had moments where hindsight gives us 20/20 vision into a trade, an investment, or deal.
*BUT* we're bad at incorporating these experiences into our future decision-making.
2/ there is not enough self-improvement or mental fitness training out there for our relationship with money 💸 it's a toxic relationship for many
but you can take more ownership and control of your financial decisions by adopting some simple self-improvement practices!
3/ start by keeping a journal of your investing decisions. document *why* you're doing what you're doing.
simple questions:
- why am i investing?
- what are my expectations of return? are they realistic?
- what is the timeline i plan to hold this?
- how am i sizing this?
1/ quick thread on capital markets and their participants
who participates in in capital markets? finance pro's and traders are focused on optimizing the opportunity cost of capital and (1) preserving principal while (2) optimizing growth
you usually start with a goal in mind
2/ understanding the opportunity cost of capital is an important exercise, and one that changes constantly.
if you have 100 bitcoin, your opportunity cost of capital could be 8% income from lending it. or it could be the 20,000% APY you could earn by wrapping it and farming.
3/ opportunity cost of capital is a fancy way of saying "making your money work in the best way possible"
crypto is a $300B market. a lot of ppl who are fundamentally long (holding assets) want to make money while waiting for "number go up"