1/ crypto VC is going through an explosive 🧨 phase
there are big funds (>$500M AUM), a lot of small funds (<$50M AUM), and *tons* of prop firms + angels
i’ve done 15 deals in the last 3 months as an angel + small fund @CoinSharesCo VC.
observations + implications... 👇🏾
2/ the big firms need to deploy in size - $5M checks and up
a $250M fund could do a $5-10M deal every month for two years and still be under-allocated
and there aren’t enough companies raising series B / C / D rounds!!!
every deal i’ve done lately is under $50M valuation
3/ so we see firms competing to take down entire rounds.
a recent series A financing had two firms competing to take down the ENTIRE ROUND, and it eventually got upsized, a LOT.
if a company is putting up user acquisition / growth and a revenue story, it’s highly competitive
4/ most projects and co’s don’t need money tho - why would a founder take 20-40% dilution when they’re banking cash and crypto? so they do 5-10%
so the valuations go up, but available allocations go down, resulting in an even bigger squeeze on allocators who *need* to deploy
5/ add in the onslaught of non-crypto M&A that’s coming, which is culling the herd of investable unicorns
add in the wave of SPACs and direct listings taking later stage opportunities out
there just aren’t enough places to put capital in size rn
what’s a fund to do?
6/ seed / series A is ultra competitive - i’m trying to deploy as fast as i can across a wide range of co’s, because many will not raise again or raise small rounds at crazy valuations
but your pedigree and reputation matter - founders can be choosy since there’s so much $$$
7/ funds are rushing to add platform + services - something i built at @DCGco and continue to build @CoinSharesCo - it’s a big differentiator!
perks include code audits, marketing, hiring support, research, etc
expect to see this grow exponentially (it already has in trad VC)
8/ companies are becoming more selective in how they raise and have more pools of capital available to them - many rounds now never hit the fundraising trail
and once @coinbase IPO goes out at $50B+, even more capital is going to come hunting for ROI in crypto
9/ it’s a founder’s market and there’s TONS of capital chasing too few deals
the crunch is going to get intense
for investors, be careful and DYOR - always down to trade deal notes
for founders, be choosy. raise less. demand more value! your investors work for YOU 🤩
10/ for those thinking about starting a co - if you want to chat, don’t hesitate to reach out! there is a great network of folks who have been funding this industry for years ❤️ use them!
we are about to enter a brand new era of crypto VC and i couldn’t be more excited 💥🧨💥
in this thread, i'll quickly outline key data points on #bitcoin sentiment, demand, market structure, and macro conditions
disclosure: i own BTC, obvi. this is not investment advice. DYOR. further disclosures at coinshares.com
2/ let's start w sentiment ☺️
first, investor sentiment:
✅ @blackrock filed to add BTC to 2 funds, CIO has 400k price target
✅ @RayDalio's Bridgewater reportedly issuing BTC research report
✅JPM, Goldman, and other bulge brackets initiated research coverage
3/ next, trader sentiment:
🚨 most important indicator is the forward curve
normally BTC futures trade in backwardation after a price drop.
this time, the curve stayed in contango following drop, meaning market makers are bullish 🐂📈 despite funding rate increase!
1/ let me give an example of how deals are going down in crypto VC - i’ll do a sample equity deal and token deal
deal 1: early stage company raising equity w/ ~$0 revenue in nov 2020
deal 2: token project bootstrapped by anon founders in oct 2020
let’s go 🧠🪐
2/ let’s start w the equity deal. early stage co that was just getting started w monetizing in november. will obfuscate all detail ofc - this is directional.
we negotiated terms to raise $2-3M at a sub $15M valuation w expected revs of $2-3M in 2021.
3/ in Dec, the co did over $1M. Jan to date, the co has beaten its entire 2021 revenue and profit goals.
they cut the round to strategic investors only + raised way less b/c they don’t need money, just help. firms got cut entirely or allocation dropped to $25k (too small!)
1/ as evidenced by the recent corruption of all US systems, from gov't to corporate, securing networks is very difficult to do persistently.
bitcoin is a global telecommunications network that secures financial information.
mining is what keeps it secure.
a short thread!
2/ power in our world is changing
the world's largest and most powerful companies used to own, make, and finance physical inputs and things.
not anymore.
today's behemoths own, maintain, and manage digital networks. and they're bigger than most nation-states.
3/ in the coming decade, we will see a rapid proliferation of digital networks in the energy, compute and connectivity, and capital markets and finance world
as a result, nations will spend trillions of dollars on securing their data and access to global systems and networks
1/ a quick thread on trading, investing, and managing your own psychology.
we've all had moments where hindsight gives us 20/20 vision into a trade, an investment, or deal.
*BUT* we're bad at incorporating these experiences into our future decision-making.
2/ there is not enough self-improvement or mental fitness training out there for our relationship with money 💸 it's a toxic relationship for many
but you can take more ownership and control of your financial decisions by adopting some simple self-improvement practices!
3/ start by keeping a journal of your investing decisions. document *why* you're doing what you're doing.
simple questions:
- why am i investing?
- what are my expectations of return? are they realistic?
- what is the timeline i plan to hold this?
- how am i sizing this?
1/ quick thread on capital markets and their participants
who participates in in capital markets? finance pro's and traders are focused on optimizing the opportunity cost of capital and (1) preserving principal while (2) optimizing growth
you usually start with a goal in mind
2/ understanding the opportunity cost of capital is an important exercise, and one that changes constantly.
if you have 100 bitcoin, your opportunity cost of capital could be 8% income from lending it. or it could be the 20,000% APY you could earn by wrapping it and farming.
3/ opportunity cost of capital is a fancy way of saying "making your money work in the best way possible"
crypto is a $300B market. a lot of ppl who are fundamentally long (holding assets) want to make money while waiting for "number go up"