Those bemoaning the rise in #PetrolPrice in India shd know that @nsitharaman can do nothing about it. You see, India's public finances are in a dire state. We now have the accounts to Dec 2020 - i.e. 9 months of FY 2020-21. Let's focus on the receipts. See this pic. Image
Start with the last line:Total receipts. Pro-rata to the Budget estimates for 2020-21 of 22.46 Lakh crores (LC) at 9-month mark, the receipts are short by 5.6 lakh crores. That is a 34% shortfall. looking at the detail of Line 4. Non-debt capital receipts we get this information Image
Effectively, there has been ZERO disinvestments of the Gvt's stake in Public sector banks and financial institutions, a 77% shortfall in the disposal of Govt's equity holdings.
Now on the expenditure side, the data upto Dec 2020 is bang on target, i.e. as planned. The 2020-21 budget estimate was a spend of 30 LC over the year, and in the 3 quarters to December, the Govt spent exactly 75% of that. But that leaves a huge gap: Image
That gap is the fiscal deficit. As at end December it stood at 11.6 LC (against a Budget estimate in April 2020 of 7.9 LC) The taxes surcharges and levies on petrol and diesel raise nothing like these levels of revenues, but don't expect them to come down any time soon.
Source of data and screenshots for the above tweets:…

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More from @GorwayGlobal

23 Feb
I am delighted beyond imaginable that #DishaRavi has been granted bail. But I find a few aspects of the Court's order both inexplicable and worrying.

Let me explain,
First, @ndtv reports that the Judge said, " cannot be presumed by resorting to surmises or conjectures that she also supported the secessionist tendencies or the violence caused on 26.01.2021.."

Q. What evidence did the Judge have to label the violence as "secessionist".
If the Judge was relying on the police charge that the violence was by #Khalistani agents then he should have been careful to qualify it as "allegedly secessionist violence".
Read 6 tweets
23 Feb
A Thread.
My column in @newslaundry criticised the RCT of Coronil done by Patanjali on, among other grounds, its small sample size. Many have asked me to say what sample size I would have recommended. So here is a #Tweetorial in RCTs and sample sizes.…
Imagine a conversation between an Ayurvedic Researcher (R) and a Statistician(S) . It might go something like this:

R: "hey I need a sample size calculation. In my last trial I had 100 patients and the critics laughed, ‘it’s too small’, they said. "

S: Okay lemme help.
S: What is the outcome measure you seek to study?

R: Virus clearance at Day 3

S: I see. So, what is your best guess of the virus clearance rate at Day 3 in the absence of any treatment?

R: I dont know. We think its is 50%
Read 21 tweets
6 Feb
@Barristotle and I have formally written to the MP for Harrow East to point out the falsehoods and misleading statements in the infographic tweeted below. We asked him to consider the facts, and withdraw the tweet and apologise. Unacceptable for a British MP to spread falsehoods
It is an open letter so I shall tweet the contents of the letter as screen shots:
Read 7 tweets
6 Feb
Aaji Shukla in a remarkable, eye-opening analysis on the enormous political significance of Modi's Farm Laws miscalculation. Screenshots follow.…
Read 6 tweets
5 Feb
A tweet thread.
Re: #FarmersProtest There is a great deal of ignorance and misinformation about the freedoms currently available to Indian farmers and big business houses., even before the #farmLaws were dreamt up by the #ModiGovt that is causing so much turmoil in India.
Take one example. When McDonald's (NYSE: MCD; Market Cap USD 158 Bn) opened in India, they found the Indian potato was not the right kind for their french fries. The Govt did not allow the import of American or European potatoes. What did they do?
Read on:
McDonald India went to the enterprising Indian farmer and did a deal "Grow this variety of potato, to these specs and we'll guarantee to pay this price and what's more we'll pick up your crop come what may". No #mandis no #APMC. #ContractFarming with guarantees.
Read 16 tweets
4 Feb
When looking at financial numbers the context and change over time is important. So a fiscal deficit in Year 20X1 of 5% can only be understood by looking at the time trend over a few years. So here's some time trend charts about #Budet2021 for #India.
1st the fiscal deficit Image
The fiscal deficit is the gap between A)Total expenditure by the Government and B) the sum of revenue receipts (tax + non tax), loan recoveries, other receipts(these are mainly PSU disinvestments). This is the gap that has to be plugged by the Government borrowing money
#Budget2021 forecasts that the interest the Govt expects to pay for accumulated Govt debt (+ any new borrowing in-year) at 8.1 lakh crores). This makes most sense when seen as a proportion of revenue expenditure. Image
Read 5 tweets

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