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JayEnAar Profile picture
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6 Feb, 6 tweets, 2 min read
Aaji Shukla in a remarkable, eye-opening analysis on the enormous political significance of Modi's Farm Laws miscalculation. Screenshots follow. thecitizen.in//index.php/en/…
And finally,

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JayEnAar Profile picture
6 Feb
@Barristotle and I have formally written to the MP for Harrow East to point out the falsehoods and misleading statements in the infographic tweeted below. We asked him to consider the facts, and withdraw the tweet and apologise. Unacceptable for a British MP to spread falsehoods
It is an open letter so I shall tweet the contents of the letter as screen shots:
1. Image
2. Image
Read 7 tweets
JayEnAar Profile picture
5 Feb
A tweet thread.
Re: #FarmersProtest There is a great deal of ignorance and misinformation about the freedoms currently available to Indian farmers and big business houses., even before the #farmLaws were dreamt up by the #ModiGovt that is causing so much turmoil in India.
Take one example. When McDonald's (NYSE: MCD; Market Cap USD 158 Bn) opened in India, they found the Indian potato was not the right kind for their french fries. The Govt did not allow the import of American or European potatoes. What did they do?
Read on:
McDonald India went to the enterprising Indian farmer and did a deal "Grow this variety of potato, to these specs and we'll guarantee to pay this price and what's more we'll pick up your crop come what may". No #mandis no #APMC. #ContractFarming with guarantees.
Read 16 tweets
JayEnAar Profile picture
4 Feb
When looking at financial numbers the context and change over time is important. So a fiscal deficit in Year 20X1 of 5% can only be understood by looking at the time trend over a few years. So here's some time trend charts about #Budet2021 for #India.
1st the fiscal deficit Image
The fiscal deficit is the gap between A)Total expenditure by the Government and B) the sum of revenue receipts (tax + non tax), loan recoveries, other receipts(these are mainly PSU disinvestments). This is the gap that has to be plugged by the Government borrowing money
#Budget2021 forecasts that the interest the Govt expects to pay for accumulated Govt debt (+ any new borrowing in-year) at 8.1 lakh crores). This makes most sense when seen as a proportion of revenue expenditure. Image
Read 5 tweets
JayEnAar Profile picture
25 Jan
Writing a column, 12-15 00 words is never easy. especially if you want to be factual, comprehensive, fair, and logical. And especially if you want it to be read widely. I faced this difficulty in rising to the challenge posed by @1amnerd when he invited me to explian this:
This was the Lancet paper of 21 Jan from an @BharatBiotech and @ICMRDELHI team reporting their phase 1 trial of BBV152 (#Covaxin). Ordinarily, a technical paper of this kind would excite interest only among PhDs and others in the same field of science.
The reason there was a story in it at all was that it was widely misrepresented on both social and mainstream media. The subliminal suggestion was that the 03 jan decision to authorise #Covaxin was after all vindicated.
Read 18 tweets
JayEnAar Profile picture
16 Jan
Having said what I did in this tweet thread linked below, it may well be the case that #Covaxin would have proved itself in a proper trial. But we'll never know now.
If the phase 3 trials do come up with an efficacy estimate it will be tainted by the #Bhopal trial centre irregularities. Hopefully they will scrap that centre and sequester all the trial data from Bhopal. If they start including data from this "clinical trial mode" roll-out...
They'd have a problem judging whether any protective effect is due to #Covaxin or due to the low number of cases reported from India anyway. That is the fundamental reason why efficacy can only ever be measured in placebo RCTs anyway.
Read 4 tweets
JayEnAar Profile picture
16 Jan
I actually have sympathy for @BharatBiotech's scientists and the volunteers who took part in their clinical trials so far. They have been let down by bad science and poor regulatory processes. The company should never have submitted #Covaxin for regulatory approval w/o Ph 3 data
That mistake -the original sin, if you like- has led to a series of mis-steps, errors, cover-ups, linguistic contortions, and lack of clarity. The regulator shd have held the #Covaxin approval request and said, "we'll look at it when you have at least some preliminary ph 3 data"
Instead, they clubbed their approval of 3 separate products into one press release. That was Mistake No 3, driven I suspect by the desire to have a wholly Indian offering (Covishield though made in Pune was already labelled, don't forget as an #Angrez product.
Read 13 tweets

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