0 – Alpha police would lynch me, but for stables farms, there’s $FLOAT’s ~1.5% whitelisted daily, the boosted 20-50% APY in CRV / Dodo, the stonk:UST pool of ~200% via $MIR, the ~100% SD Curve eurs in $SDT, one can also degen $Cover no-claim for 50-100%. Here’s a more degen one…
1 – A $TRU competitor had entered – I haven’t heard from Coinflex for a while but they just came out with notes.finance as its #DeFi attempt. ~10k% APY on unsecured lending to prop desks on a mere $25-30 mm $FLEX FDV to start (funded via $FLEX inflation).
2 – The 2 products they have are actually rather neat – one is a yield-generating USD (flexUSD) where the interest comes from basis trade on corn (perp funding fee / long spot short futures), which is paid out onchain via rebase every 8 hours.
3 - …and the other is the unsecured lending – they call it notes – which currently has a few prop desks borrowing at 8-10% annualized @ 0.5 – 1 mm clips (grapefruit, Folkvang , etc). These 2 type of products then go into CRV pools on the liquidity tab
4 - … of notes.finance where one can also contribute DAI / USDC / USDT into which effectively earns the underlying yield (albeit potentially contributing at a premium due to shortage of notes). The risk of course of Coinflex platform blow-up and/or counterparty default
5 – My understanding is that 25 mm $FLEX will be issued over 9 months (25% of FDV) whereby 80% goes to the notes (unsecured lending CRV) pools, 10% to flexUSD (basis yield) pool, and 10% to staked FLEX:USDC Uniswap LP. The FLEX:USDC pool2 today by rough math is ~500%+ APY.
6 – but the kicker is in the 1st bucket – with < 1mm TVL today in the notes pool today but 25 mm / 9 mo / 30 day * $0.3 $FLEX price = ~2.8 % daily yield on USDC (or ~10k+% annualized non-compounded), where $FLEX diluted market cap is barely ~$30 mm.
7 – Coinflex itself had execution issues as I covered them way back in Dec 2019 / early 20; the neat thing here is that (a) there’s a pool2 now ponzi-lifting the $FLEX price, (b) the higher $FLEX price would kick the notes pool yield into hyper-drive,
8 – (c) … which makes it an ideally really friendly environment for prop desks to borrow hard, and (d) here’s the killer, I believe the prop firms who borrow via CoinFlex would have to commit to certain amount of trading volume on the CoinFlex platform…
9 - …whereby the trading fees would automatically burn $FLEX as commission. If it all works in synchrony, the $FLEX being pumped will recursively drive further notes pool appetite and thereby friendly borrowing condition for the prop-firms.
10 – Corn’s pulling back, ETH gas price is lol, but say $FLEX goes to 1-2 USD on the back of this (~100-200 mm FDV), with ~50-100 mm TVL (god bless the notes lenders), that’s still a 50-100% type annualized yield, more for early stakers w/ mega $FLEX bag & initial yield.
11 – They certainly still got wood to chop on the interface & more transparency around the contracts / lender background. Also whether trading platform itself can compete well while BNB+ FTT are blazing ahead, but yield is yield, figure I’d flag since I followed them for a while
12 - Definitely be careful though. Liked the concept of both basis token + unsecured borrowing but not an endorsement. Team needs to work very hard to keep Coinflex going (that itself is tough as a small exchange) and now likely need this notes.finance effort to work.
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0 - The coverage on the DODOnomics is over-due. So here it is. The TVL is low (and intentionally so optimized for volume going through platform). As the marathon continues into multi-platform (BSC, DOT, etc) and multi-vertical, I continue to have high hopes for the $DODO team.
1 – Staking DODO into vDODO = membership right (would imagine a secondary market would develop) similar to xSushi and BNB – earns fees + inflation, gets fee discounts, gets IDO allocations (could happen to xSushi / Miso too?), and votes.
2 – Here’s some additional neat token-economics - one is mint / stake via shared link gets referral rewards on inflation. Second is exiting vDODO into liquid DODO carries a 5-15% fee – and the more people stake vDoDo, the lower the exit fee…
1- I may have spoken about this before, but I think it’s rather likely existing #DeFi protocols would vertically and horizontally expand into financial conglomerates. What’s 1 module of financial primitives would expand to a full suite of services
2- …for the main reason being (a) you spent the CAC for customer & TVL, might as well monetize, (b) devs need new things to put minds on + take on more cool projects, (c) token-holders demand more, and (d) meaningful synergy across primitives.
3 – for #DeFi on ETH. The barrier of entry is starting to form – there’s L2 to think about, there’s “should I be on DOT / have my own chain”, but there’s also “is my team stacked enough to compete against XYZ while XYZ broadens the scope.”
Good work by @Lucas; here's my latest visual. Think Sushi is >2x undervalued vs. $UNI. $UNI and $AAVE seem to be catching inst. bids, $UNI also trades like pot'l v3 release w/ inside info. FWIW I expect gap to close w/ catalyst w/ $SUSHI on Bentobox, Mirin, & other good stuff 👀
Sushi's fully diluted mkt cap could use work -- it's 250 mm vs. what I pulled. so more like 1.8 Bn USD. This puts UNI's diluted 4-5x more than Sushi. The point still stands. One could argue $UNI should have a premium given being #1, pending catalyst, and broadest reach today
Next pts of differentiation around (a) more pairs onboarding + being the go-to for best degen bets, (b) linking closer to exchanges, (c) L2 adoption when makes-sense, (d) broadening liquidity product set when makes-sense, and (e) cross-chain + CeDeFi stuff when necessary.
(0) I’m a little #drunj, so here’s a belated 2021-2025 prediction. It becomes much easier to predict 5-10 years out vs. the next year so apologies for the cop-out. I think the outcome would be bifurcated.
(1) Libra equivalent / ETH 2.0 + L2 / Polkadot set off the flywheel of infrastructure prompting application improvements and vice versa, whereby ecosystems and stacks compete for capital and talent. I personally bias towards open, permissionless blockchains.
(2) 1st iteration killer app / use-case emerges utilizing the valuenet and we go through a 1999-type mania. I don’t know what it is, but it’d have to utilize L1+ #DeFi and does something impossible today. It’d be painfully obvious for anyone active in the ecosystem today.
Continue to like the pace at which the @BreederDodo team iterates + take user feedbacks. Looking forward to v2.0 with more features. A few additional thoughts on how AMM+ may evolve in the next 6 months:
Protocols need clean roadmaps for both 2C and 2B -- 2C is as in a solid interface for all key functions a degen may need (assuming trading isn't disintermediated), and 2B is Biz Dev for POS + best algo / optimization for aggregators.
I could argue that all AMM would need to become aggregators eventually (with private pools), and vice versa -- for when you worked so hard on CAC for a customer, you don't want them leaving to another venue. The same goes for adding lend/borrow, derivative features as well
(0) Since our last report on July 4th, 2020, The #DeFi space and our mental framework had evolved enough to prompt another iteration – a deck about the broader #valuenet and ETH-based #DeFi / #WallstreetAPI. As usual, would appreciate any feedback!
(0.5) As #Bitcoin soars to uncharted heights today and hitting sweetest part of adoption S-curve at 3rd to 4th inning, we feel like broader #valuenet + #DeFi concept is barely at top half of first inning. If one is so adventurous, this is likely where the next 100-10,000x is born
(1) @cdixon coined the term “game-theoretic guarantee” for tx offered by L0/L1s (too cogent not to steal) -- this nascent, transparent, market-driven alternative harbors a different cost function vs. the legacy recourse-deterring ones, as seen by the Value-transfer-cost U-curve.