0 – Alpha police would lynch me, but for stables farms, there’s $FLOAT’s ~1.5% whitelisted daily, the boosted 20-50% APY in CRV / Dodo, the stonk:UST pool of ~200% via $MIR, the ~100% SD Curve eurs in $SDT, one can also degen $Cover no-claim for 50-100%. Here’s a more degen one…
1 – A $TRU competitor had entered – I haven’t heard from Coinflex for a while but they just came out with notes.finance as its #DeFi attempt. ~10k% APY on unsecured lending to prop desks on a mere $25-30 mm $FLEX FDV to start (funded via $FLEX inflation).
2 – The 2 products they have are actually rather neat – one is a yield-generating USD (flexUSD) where the interest comes from basis trade on corn (perp funding fee / long spot short futures), which is paid out onchain via rebase every 8 hours.
3 - …and the other is the unsecured lending – they call it notes – which currently has a few prop desks borrowing at 8-10% annualized @ 0.5 – 1 mm clips (grapefruit, Folkvang , etc). These 2 type of products then go into CRV pools on the liquidity tab
4 - … of notes.finance where one can also contribute DAI / USDC / USDT into which effectively earns the underlying yield (albeit potentially contributing at a premium due to shortage of notes). The risk of course of Coinflex platform blow-up and/or counterparty default
5 – My understanding is that 25 mm $FLEX will be issued over 9 months (25% of FDV) whereby 80% goes to the notes (unsecured lending CRV) pools, 10% to flexUSD (basis yield) pool, and 10% to staked FLEX:USDC Uniswap LP. The FLEX:USDC pool2 today by rough math is ~500%+ APY.
6 – but the kicker is in the 1st bucket – with < 1mm TVL today in the notes pool today but 25 mm / 9 mo / 30 day * $0.3 $FLEX price = ~2.8 % daily yield on USDC (or ~10k+% annualized non-compounded), where $FLEX diluted market cap is barely ~$30 mm.
7 – Coinflex itself had execution issues as I covered them way back in Dec 2019 / early 20; the neat thing here is that (a) there’s a pool2 now ponzi-lifting the $FLEX price, (b) the higher $FLEX price would kick the notes pool yield into hyper-drive,
8 – (c) … which makes it an ideally really friendly environment for prop desks to borrow hard, and (d) here’s the killer, I believe the prop firms who borrow via CoinFlex would have to commit to certain amount of trading volume on the CoinFlex platform…
9 - …whereby the trading fees would automatically burn $FLEX as commission. If it all works in synchrony, the $FLEX being pumped will recursively drive further notes pool appetite and thereby friendly borrowing condition for the prop-firms.
10 – Corn’s pulling back, ETH gas price is lol, but say $FLEX goes to 1-2 USD on the back of this (~100-200 mm FDV), with ~50-100 mm TVL (god bless the notes lenders), that’s still a 50-100% type annualized yield, more for early stakers w/ mega $FLEX bag & initial yield.
11 – They certainly still got wood to chop on the interface & more transparency around the contracts / lender background. Also whether trading platform itself can compete well while BNB+ FTT are blazing ahead, but yield is yield, figure I’d flag since I followed them for a while
12 - Definitely be careful though. Liked the concept of both basis token + unsecured borrowing but not an endorsement. Team needs to work very hard to keep Coinflex going (that itself is tough as a small exchange) and now likely need this notes.finance effort to work.

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More from @MapleLeafCap

14 Feb
0 - The coverage on the DODOnomics is over-due. So here it is. The TVL is low (and intentionally so optimized for volume going through platform). As the marathon continues into multi-platform (BSC, DOT, etc) and multi-vertical, I continue to have high hopes for the $DODO team.
1 – Staking DODO into vDODO = membership right (would imagine a secondary market would develop) similar to xSushi and BNB – earns fees + inflation, gets fee discounts, gets IDO allocations (could happen to xSushi / Miso too?), and votes.
2 – Here’s some additional neat token-economics - one is mint / stake via shared link gets referral rewards on inflation. Second is exiting vDODO into liquid DODO carries a 5-15% fee – and the more people stake vDoDo, the lower the exit fee…
Read 11 tweets
9 Feb
1- I may have spoken about this before, but I think it’s rather likely existing #DeFi protocols would vertically and horizontally expand into financial conglomerates. What’s 1 module of financial primitives would expand to a full suite of services
2- …for the main reason being (a) you spent the CAC for customer & TVL, might as well monetize, (b) devs need new things to put minds on + take on more cool projects, (c) token-holders demand more, and (d) meaningful synergy across primitives.
3 – for #DeFi on ETH. The barrier of entry is starting to form – there’s L2 to think about, there’s “should I be on DOT / have my own chain”, but there’s also “is my team stacked enough to compete against XYZ while XYZ broadens the scope.”
Read 9 tweets
28 Jan
Good work by @Lucas; here's my latest visual. Think Sushi is >2x undervalued vs. $UNI. $UNI and $AAVE seem to be catching inst. bids, $UNI also trades like pot'l v3 release w/ inside info. FWIW I expect gap to close w/ catalyst w/ $SUSHI on Bentobox, Mirin, & other good stuff 👀
Sushi's fully diluted mkt cap could use work -- it's 250 mm vs. what I pulled. so more like 1.8 Bn USD. This puts UNI's diluted 4-5x more than Sushi. The point still stands. One could argue $UNI should have a premium given being #1, pending catalyst, and broadest reach today
Next pts of differentiation around (a) more pairs onboarding + being the go-to for best degen bets, (b) linking closer to exchanges, (c) L2 adoption when makes-sense, (d) broadening liquidity product set when makes-sense, and (e) cross-chain + CeDeFi stuff when necessary.
Read 5 tweets
13 Jan
(0) I’m a little #drunj, so here’s a belated 2021-2025 prediction. It becomes much easier to predict 5-10 years out vs. the next year so apologies for the cop-out. I think the outcome would be bifurcated.
(1) Libra equivalent / ETH 2.0 + L2 / Polkadot set off the flywheel of infrastructure prompting application improvements and vice versa, whereby ecosystems and stacks compete for capital and talent. I personally bias towards open, permissionless blockchains.
(2) 1st iteration killer app / use-case emerges utilizing the valuenet and we go through a 1999-type mania. I don’t know what it is, but it’d have to utilize L1+ #DeFi and does something impossible today. It’d be painfully obvious for anyone active in the ecosystem today.
Read 11 tweets
24 Dec 20
Continue to like the pace at which the @BreederDodo team iterates + take user feedbacks. Looking forward to v2.0 with more features. A few additional thoughts on how AMM+ may evolve in the next 6 months:
Protocols need clean roadmaps for both 2C and 2B -- 2C is as in a solid interface for all key functions a degen may need (assuming trading isn't disintermediated), and 2B is Biz Dev for POS + best algo / optimization for aggregators.
I could argue that all AMM would need to become aggregators eventually (with private pools), and vice versa -- for when you worked so hard on CAC for a customer, you don't want them leaving to another venue. The same goes for adding lend/borrow, derivative features as well
Read 7 tweets
16 Dec 20
(0) Since our last report on July 4th, 2020, The #DeFi space and our mental framework had evolved enough to prompt another iteration – a deck about the broader #valuenet and ETH-based #DeFi / #WallstreetAPI. As usual, would appreciate any feedback!

Link: drive.google.com/file/d/1eTuhqn…
(0.5) As #Bitcoin soars to uncharted heights today and hitting sweetest part of adoption S-curve at 3rd to 4th inning, we feel like broader #valuenet + #DeFi concept is barely at top half of first inning. If one is so adventurous, this is likely where the next 100-10,000x is born
(1) @cdixon coined the term “game-theoretic guarantee” for tx offered by L0/L1s (too cogent not to steal) -- this nascent, transparent, market-driven alternative harbors a different cost function vs. the legacy recourse-deterring ones, as seen by the Value-transfer-cost U-curve.
Read 28 tweets

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