Thread by @DrEricDing

TRIPLE WORRISOME—Data says the new variant that is now dominant strain in California:

📌spreads FASTER

📌evades antibodies from #COVID19 vaccines or prior infection

📌causes more severe illness.

➡️Scientist says “the devil is here” #B1427 / #B1429🧵
latimes.com/science/story/…

2) “In a study that helps explain the state’s dramatic surge in COVID-19 cases and deaths — and portends further trouble ahead — scientists at UCSF said the mutations that characterizes the homegrown CA should mark it as a “variant of concern” on par with those from 🇬🇧 , 🇿🇦 & 🇧🇷”

3) “The devil is already here,” said Dr. Charles Chiu, who led UCSF team of geneticists, epidemiologists, statisticians and other scientists in a wide-ranging analysis of the new variant, which they call B.1.427/B.1.429. “I wish it were different. But the science is the science.”

4) “Californians have been bracing for the rise of a more transmissible variant #B117. But they should know that a rival strain that is probably just as worrisome has already settled in, and will probably account for 90% of the state’s infections by the end of next month”

5) “the California strain, which is sometimes referred to as 20C/L452R, rose from complete obscurity to account for >50% of all #SARSCoV2 samples [sequenced in CA]. Compared with strains that were prominent in early fall, the new strain seems to have enhanced ability to spread”

6) The parallel NYT piece is just as ominous. It also notes that the new CA variant like I doubles the viral load in new study. nytimes.com/2021/02/23/hea…

7) “That study also hinted that the variant may be better than others at evading the immune system — and vaccines”.

“I wish I had better news to give you—that this variant is not significant at all,” said Dr. Charles Chiu of UCSF. “But unfortunately, we just follow the science.”

8) Any other corroborating data? yes, unfortunately. The CA variant has a mutation that also evades certain antibodies, behaving like the South Africa 🇿🇦 #B1351 and 🇧🇷 #P1 variants.

https://twitter.com/jbloom_lab/status/1364220307570003968

9) Back to LAT piece, “The variant’s enhanced propensity for spread was also evident in laboratory results. An analysis of viral samples from around the state showed that compared with people infected with other strains of SARS-CoV-2...”

10) ...”those who were infected with the California strain had viral loads in the nasopharynx that were twice as high.

➡️ That, in turn, made it highly likely that each person infected with the new strain would go on to infect more people.” ❗️

11) “In a UCSF lab, scientists found that L452R mutation alone made the California strain more damaging as well. A coronavirus engineered to have only that mutation was able to infect human lung tissue >40% more readily than were circulating variants that lacked the mutation.”

12) “Compared with those so-called wild-type strains, the virus was >3 times more infectious. In the lab, the CA strain also revealed itself to be more resistant to neutralizing antibodies generated in response to COVID-19 vaccines as well as by a previous coronavirus infection.”

13) “Compared with existing variants, the reduction in protection was “moderate ... but significant,” the researchers said.”

➡️Which sounds like it’ll maybe attenuate response but probably will not entirely eliminate prior immunity

14) “Samples collected from a range of counties suggest the variant is 19% to 24% more transmissible. But in some circumstances, its advantage was much greater: In one nursing home outbreak, B.1.427/B.1.429 spread at a rate that was six times higher”

15) from NYT: “researchers have been looking more closely at the new variant, B.1.427/B.1.429, to pinpoint its origin & track spread. It has shown up in 45 states to date, and in several other countries: 🇦🇺, 🇩🇰 , 🇲🇽 & 🇹🇼.”

16) this is the same variant I highlighted a few weeks ago. Back then it was just 20-30% of samples in CA. It is now half of all samples. It is replacing the other older common strains. This means it could mean a slowing and reversal of the case drop in near future.

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1359417700045516802

17) At the same time, while the new CA home grown variant #B1427/1429 surgery to 50%, it’s also dealing with a surge in 🇬🇧#B117 as well. While not as fast as Florida (probably due to more B1427/1429 competition), together these two are going to likely make old strain extinct.

https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1359871587126763521

18) Here is what is likely to happen... currently R is ~0.9 in many places, but with the more infectious variants, the R will jump up. And it is inevitable (CDC & 🇩🇰& 🇩🇪 models say this) that faster variants will dominant variant soon. The new CA variant will help that further.

19) That said, #B117 will only likely be bigger California in April, possibly due to competition from the CA’s home grown #B1427/1429 variant. So while the exact date of the surge depends on relative dates these 2 dominate, a surge may come in April/May. medrxiv.org/content/10.110…

20) Are overall cases dropping? Yes, but don’t be complacent. The thing is that the pandemic is likely diverging. The old less infectious 1.0 Wuhan and derivative common strains are slowly disappearing and being replaced. There is an underbelly that is hidden. Please double mask.

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1357566949404905472

21) Please double mask. There is a lot of reasons why explained in the thread 🧵 below. Or switch to premium mask. But tight fit is key.

https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1359536244464766980

22) if you don’t double mask, then Please consider switching to premium mask, that is now mandated in many parts of Europe. And make sure you have a tight fit.

https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1353186978519539712