Using their Week 1 data, it seems likely that between 160K - 250K people enrolled in #ACA exchange plans nationally from 2/15 - 2/21. Assuming that's accurate *and* the pace holds steady for the full 3-mo period (unlikely), the potential ceiling would be 2.1 - 3.3 million.
Normally you'd expect around 700,000 people to enroll via traditional Special Enrollment Periods nationally during that same period, so that would mean 1.4 - 2.6 million *more* enrollees than you'd normally expect without a COVID SEP.
For comparison, my own rough projection from last month was that perhaps 400K - 600K additional enrollees would sign up during a COVID-specific SEP.
Note that none of this accounts for the potential #AmRescuePlan subsidy enhancements.
In any event, *if* @CMSGov issues a "Week 1 Snapshot Report" this week like they do during the official Open Enrollment Period, I'd expect enrollment *via HealthCare.Gov* to come in somewhere between 98K - 154K from 2/15 - 2/20 (CMS runs "weeks" from Sunday - Saturday).
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As a mainstream Dem who raised over $5 million to help flip the Senate *including* over $56,000 for Paula Jean Swearengin in WV, I think I have a right to chime in on this. 1/
I raised money for a total of over 600 Democratic candidates last cycle, including around 30 Senate races, over 150 House races, several hundred state legislative races and a couple dozen statewide races for Governor, SoS, AG, etc. Grand total raised: $6 million. 2/
In contested primaries, I usually didn't favor a specific Dem, but raised money for whoever the eventual nominee ended up being (ActBlue lets you do that for federal and statewide races). For legislative races I usually raised $ for the state party until the primary. 3/
🚨 REMINDER: The U.S. Supreme Court is scheduled to release one or more opinions TOMORROW MORNING. This may include the fate of the Affordable Care Act. 1/ acasignups.net/21/02/05/democ…
Oral argument *seemed* to go well for the #ACA last November, and the consensus opinion is that #SCOTUS will either throw the case out or, at worst, order the mandate language stricken while leaving the rest intact...which would be mildly irritating but otherwise fine. 2/
HOWEVER, there's 4 *other* possible rulings: 1. They kick it back down to the district court again. 2. They strike down guaranteed issue & community rating only. 3. They strike down most of the law but leave oddball provisions in place. 4. They kill the entire law. 3/
Last month I projected that a 60-day national "no reason needed" COVID Enrollment Period would bring in perhaps 400,000 additional exchange enrollees (beyond normal Special Enrollment Period rates).
Typically, ~7K enroll via SEPs every day during the off-season nationally.
Tripling that nationally would mean ~14K *more* per day, or ~840K during a 60-day period...more than double my rough projection.
Of course the federal COVID Enrollment Period is *90* days, but it's only 30 for some state exchanges, and that 3x rate may not be representative.
Cannon and I strongly disagree about his framing of CA banning #ShortAssPlans, but I agree that asking about actual healthcare POLICY decisions would make a hell of a lot more sense than whether or not Becerra is a doctor or not.
As for #ShortAssPlans in California, what Cannon is really talking about is availability of affordable individual market plans for those who earn too much to be eligible for #ACA subsidies.
This is a real problem, I agree. It's expected to be addressed in the short term by the #AmRescuePlan, and hopefully on a permanent basis via #HR369.
In California, they *partly* addressed the issue by adding their own ACA subsidies for those earning 400 - 600% FPL...