THREAD: on.wsj.com/3aXrh1C at some point, the #FED and the other central banks will have to change status. It might take a creash to do it.(/) @amlivemon @jeuasommenulle @nglinsman @Halsrethink @bondstrategist @DiMartinoBooth @DavidBCollum
1. they might either fall under an higher supervisory authority checking every financial aspect of their activity apart from setting official rate and providing liquidity though banks and have, for example, ALL influence of banking instruments sold wrested away.(/)
2. since their activity has been for over a decade not "policy neutral", they might be forced to become "elected officials", shorn from their patina of indipendence they voluntarily discarded. In fact, at least in the #EU, they might be a first: (/)
As Von Der Leyen has proven, there is no relation between what voters vote and the leaders they get in the EU. But the #ECB board could be forced into a direct election contest, in an environment where what they call "qualifications" would be a badge of shame.(/)
3. we might go back to an old Italian classic, by biting the bullet and simply accept publicly that Central Banks will monetize whatever deficit any politician will want and vote.... which is not far from our reality. Remember #QT? (/)
Capital gain taxes, like inheritance taxes, are one of my area of interest. Never EVER any discussion strays from insults after 20 minutes. I have this daft tendency to check "where the money goes and what are the alternate ways to calculate this".(/)
Apart from my superstition that "naming calls" and politicians calling for capital gain taxes wake up momma bear, taxing unearned gains is #QE : it sucked interest income from my son to me, and then destroyed it forward for both.(/)
The distortions to price discovery that #QE has done is the biggest in human history, but taxing unrealized gains.... well that could be interesting too.

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More from @gbponz

28 Feb
In più, c'è un problema "negoziale": se sei un imprenditore come @recifar , ed hai seguito la polemica su VDL - Gallina - Vaccini, hai due impressioni:
1. questi sono burocrati fissi nel presente;
2. quando sbraitano dopo urlano "penali" e se la prendono con te.(/)
Ora, ADESSO c'è un problema di scarso numero di VACCINATI. ed i politici strepitano per avere più vaccini, ma quello che secondo me Renato, @carloalberto @AlfonsoFuggetta , e tanti altri amici che stimo pensano è: (/)
"Questi vorrebbero avere ORA tanti vaccini, catena logistica in piedi e rifornita ad ogni nodo, tracciamento del processo, in e out, inclusa la fase somministrazione e richiamo."(/)
Read 5 tweets
28 Feb
True, but it doesn't capture one thing: fixed income investors have been facing a bleak future for over a decade, since 2008, to be precise. (/) @jeuasommenulle @nglinsman @Halsrethink @amlivemon @DiMartinoBooth @bondstrategist
And the old man knows, because as the most perceptive of you have realised, he did NOT name banks within those investors. Because in 2008, the pick was between "banks " and investors. (/)
It's yesterday to me since I am almost 60, but people may not know how dire the situation was, especially for bond investors. Equities were smashed to a pulp. An equivalent disaster went on in bonds... with a twist.(/)
Read 14 tweets
27 Feb
on.wsj.com/3srXx2Q in a sense I am happy to be able to finally define a @WSJ article as "cringeworthy". They were besmirching the journalist profession with their insightful thought and careful analysis.(/) @nglinsman @amlivemon @RobertMCutler @michaeltanchum @shaun_riordan
bbc.com/news/world-us-… now, the link to the #ODNI report is down for me, but the #BBC article states
"The intelligence report lists three reasons for believing that the crown prince must have approved the operation:
His control of decision-making in the kingdom since 2017(/)
"The direct involvement in the operation of one of his advisers as well as members of his protective detail ;
His "support for using violent measures to silence dissidents abroad".
I.e. let me tell you how much proof there is: (/)
Read 12 tweets
27 Feb
I don't dare speak for @Halsrethink, whose appreciation for me always disconcerts me and awes me. For a left handed golfer like me it's like casually meeting Phil Mickelson telling me he has a tee time booked and a spare set of clubs(/)
But there IS an egoistic reason for my contribution. Onemis a kind of moral revenge: in 30 years, I have seen too many times the Captain steering HMS Titanic into an Iceberg Everyone saw, turn around, and say "gee, it was unpredictable", and ignore any evidence (/)
I also have a bright son and daughter, and every improvement in general understanding by the general public improves their chances in life. In a way I also was electrified when attending a lecture by #VernonSmith , the Nobel laureate(/)
Read 6 tweets
25 Feb
Potete benissimo avere entrambi ragione. Anzi: ho praticamente zero dubbi che a Brussels, anche il DECIMO miglior negoziatore sia eccezionale.(/)
Il problema è che negoziare, risposta Pavloviana della burocrazia UE, NON È la panacea di tutti i mali.(/)
Una pandemia, essendo esponenziale, risponde bene ad una frase di un mio idolo, George S. Patton: "meglio un buon piano domani che un piano perfetto tra una settimana".(/)
Read 7 tweets
24 Feb
Thread: Ruoli. dopo la bischerata delle chiusure degli impianti sciistici, possono assumere la Madonna di Fatima che attraversa il lago a piedi per farmi la predica che "questo governo dei migliori", e le dico che ho già vodafone. (/) @nglinsman @LorenaLVilla @liberioltre
Ho la massima stima per le persone citate come aggiunte valide. Non conosco Firpo, ma apprezzai il lavoro di Giavazzi per la Spending review, ed ho avuto la fortuna di incontrare @FerdiGiugliano socialmente.(/)
Ma, nessuno come #Giavazzi sa che in Italia, il problema non è praticamente mai stato sapere cosa va fatto. in misura maggiore, ma non ostante, c'è un problema nel decidere il come farlo.(/)
Read 7 tweets

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